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JRC Information Day - Romania

European Early Warning Systems for Floods and Droughts - How could Romania benefit? Dr. Ad De Roo European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre Institute for Environment and Sustainability Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit Weather Driven Natural Hazard Action.

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JRC Information Day - Romania

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  1. European Early Warning Systems for Floods and Droughts -How could Romania benefit?Dr. Ad De RooEuropean Commission, DG Joint Research CentreInstitute for Environment and Sustainability Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit Weather Driven Natural Hazard Action JRC Information Day - Romania JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  2. What can be done to prevent flood losses? • Forest Fires • Floods • Droughts • Storms Risk maps Preparedness Awareness Scenario studies Land use change Climate change Before Forecasting Early warning Prevention After EFFIS Structural funds EDAS Damage assessment EFAS Damage estimates EU Solidarity Funds JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  3. European Flood Alert System (EFAS) Objective: 3-10 daysearly warning for floods  More time to prepare for a crisis! Complementing Member States’ activities (NIHWM Romania) • forecasting for entire river basins • flood probabilities > 3-10 days • information exchange platform • harmonized overview: crisis aid JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  4. Romania: NIHW EFAS: from research to operation • Pilot study (EFFS; 2000-2003) • Identify customer needs (2003) • Prototype development • Testing (with NHS) • Transfer of operational system to MS (2010) JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  5. Forecast products Input data Model system LISFLOOD (JRC) Feedback – Improvement Impact assessement RO: now! EFAS – how does it work? Agreed partners JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  6. EFAS USER INTERFACE – Exploring EFAS results in different ways JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  7. EFAS user interface: Overview maps – summarising flood threshold exceedance spatially probabilistic deterministic JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  8. EFAS user interface: Point information JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  9. EFAS: SIMPLIFYING INFORMATION JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  10. EFAS: looking back in time - persistency JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  11. Communication to endusers JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  12. European Flood Alert System:Example of a successful flood alert 30 July 2004 Rainfall forecasted CZ SK Flood problems forecasted A HU RU Black Sea Low flood risk Medium flood risk High flood risk Extreme flood risk Alert send on 30 July; Floods confirmed by NIHWM on 3-4 August Adriatic Sea BG Siret, Romania JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  13. EFAS results in 2003-6 Early Flood Alert Reports to partners (Danube) Aug 2003 Siret (RO) Aug 2004 Siret (RO) Jul 2005 Danube (SK, HU) Aug 2005 Rhine and Danube (HU, DE, AT) Sep 2005 Po (It), Danube (2BG, RO) Mar/Apr 2006 70 alert reports to Elbe+Danube (*) 2005: 9 out of 10 events were correctly forecasted more than 3 days in advance! * (2006 floods: EFAS agreement with RO not signed yet) JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  14. In Romania & Bulgaria: at places more than 300% more precipitation than the average of 90-04 Romania: Extremely wet summer 2005! August 2005 July 2005 JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  15. EFAS MARS >HAL 05.2005 JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  16. EFAS MARS >HAL 06.2005 BU again flooded JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  17. EFAS MARS >HAL 07.2005 Ro/Bu Danube floods JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  18. EFAS MARS >HAL 08.2005 August Danube floods JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  19. EFAS MARS >HAL 09.2005 RO/Bu floods- again French floods – small scale, also well forecasted! In particular the second flood peak JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  20. EFAS FLOOD ALERTS in MARCH 2006 Flood Alert Reports 1 : Rhine (DE), 07-12th 2 : Rhine (DE), 23-31st 3 : Elbe&Morava (Cz), 25-31st 4 : Danube/Tisza (HU), 27-31st 5 : Elbe (DE), 28-31st 6 : Morava (SK), 29-31st 7 : Danube (BG), 31st 5 b 1,2 3 6 4 a Informal Flood Watch 7 a – Soane/Rhone (FR) b – Oder (PL) JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  21. EFAS FLOOD ALERTS in April 2006 Flood Alert Reports 1 : Rhine (DE), 1st 2 : Elbe&Morava (Cz), 1-7th 3 : Danube/Tisza (HU), 1-7th 4 : Elbe (DE), 1-7th 5 : Morava (SK), 29-31st 6 : Danube (BG), 1-9th 7 : Tisza (HU), 11-17th 4 1 2 5 3,7 Informal Flood Watch 6 JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  22. History at a point - from 20.03 1) Tisza – Danube 12 External EFAS IR From: 27.03 To: 07.04 DWD Overview Maps Forecast starting on 03.04.06 to 15.04 ECMWF 2) Tisza 7 External EFAS IR From: 11.04 To: 17.04 EPS>HAL Danube - Tisza JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  23. History at a point - from 20.03 DWD Overview Maps Forecast starting on 03.04.06 Morava - Danube Informal EFAS Info From: 29.03 to 07.04 to 15.04 ECMWF EPS>HAL Danube - Morava JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  24. History at a point - from 20.03 DWD Overview Maps Forecast starting on 11.04.06 to 15.04 ECMWF EPS>HAL Danube tributaries in Romania JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  25. History at a point - from 20.03 Danube 10 External EFAS IR From: 31.03 To: 09.04 DWD Overview Maps Forecast starting on 03.04.06 to 15.04 ECMWF EPS>HAL Main Danube Lower I JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  26. History at a point - from 20.03 Danube 10 External EFAS IR From: 31.03 To: 09.04 DWD Overview Maps Forecast starting on 03.04.06 to 15.04 ECMWF EPS>HAL Main Danube Lower II JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  27. Latest EFAS forecast for Romania EFAS: 9 May 12:00 Nothing critical expected JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  28. European Drought Alert System Complementing Member States activities towards better preparedness for droughts • forecasting, detection and monitoring of drought conditions • integration of drought preparedness actions on international and regional scales JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  29. Trend: wetter soil conditions 2000 2002 2004 2006 Is Romania getting wetter ? wet dry JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  30. Conclusions • Need for transnational forecasting systems and collaborations for floods • JRC-EFAS • ICPDR • Romania: fruitful cooperation with JRC • Outlook: • Finalising EFAS for the Danube • Impact of climate change on extremes • Flood risk mapping JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

  31. Information http://natural-hazards.jrc.it http://efas.jrc.it Contacts: Ad.de-roo@jrc.it Working together to be better prepared for natural disasters JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania

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