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Developing and Applying Scenarios: A summary from the Third Assessment Report

Developing and Applying Scenarios: A summary from the Third Assessment Report. Roger N. Jones CSIRO Atmospheric Research. Acknowledgments. Tim Carter CLA Chapter III & slides Emilio La Rovere, Rik Leemans, Linda Mearns, ‘Naki’ Nakicenovic, Barrie Pittock, Sergei Semenov, Jim Skea, Mike Hulme.

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Developing and Applying Scenarios: A summary from the Third Assessment Report

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  1. Developing and Applying Scenarios: A summary from theThird Assessment Report Roger N. Jones CSIRO Atmospheric Research

  2. Acknowledgments Tim Carter CLA Chapter III & slides Emilio La Rovere, Rik Leemans, Linda Mearns, ‘Naki’ Nakicenovic, Barrie Pittock, Sergei Semenov, Jim Skea, Mike Hulme

  3. Chapter 13 WG IClimate Scenario Development Mearns and Hulme et al. Distinguishes between Climate change scenarios (representation of change from baseline) Climate scenarios (representation of future climate)

  4. Chapter 13 WG IClimate Scenario Development Mearns and Hulme et al. Key development of methods, for: Representing uncertainty High resolution information Variability and extreme events

  5. Socioeconomic assumptions Emissions scenarios Concentrations projections Radiative forcing projections Interactions and feedbacks Climate projections Sea level projections Regional scenarios Impacts Chain of dependencies in global change scenarios Source: Mearns et al., 2001

  6. Typology of extreme climate events

  7. Chapter 3 WG IIDeveloping and Applying Scenarios Carter and La Rovere Major developments Features non-climatic scenarios Characterises SRES scenarios Recommends consistency between scenarios Uncertainty, variability and extremes (As for Ch. 13)

  8. Types of scenarios • Climate • Socioeconomic • Land-use and Land-cover Change • Environmental • Sea-level rise

  9. Structure of Chapter 3

  10. Socioeconomic scenarios • Baseline socioeconomic vulnerability • Pre-climate change • Determine climate change impacts • Post-adaptation vulnerability

  11. Land-use and land-cover scenarios • Food security • Carbon cycling • Current and future land-use • Integrated assessment models most appropriate for developing LUCC scenarios

  12. Environmental scenarios • Atmospheric carbon dioxide • Tropospheric ozone • Acidifying compounds • UV radiation • Water resources • Marine pollution

  13. Sea-level rise scenarios • Need long baseline records • Need to estimate relative sea level rather than absolute • Regional variations unknown • Variability important • Amenable to risk assessment

  14. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Source: Nakićenović et al. (2000)

  15. Projected changes in extreme climate events and impacts Source: IPCC WG II SPM, 2001

  16. Projected changes in extreme climate events and impacts Source: IPCC WG II SPM, 2001

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