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Global crises in a resource-constrained, multipolar world

Global crises in a resource-constrained, multipolar world. John Humphrey Globalisation Team. Outline. Looming, long-term crises New powers and multipolarity Equity Timeframes Governance. Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy. Increasing population

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Global crises in a resource-constrained, multipolar world

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  1. Global crises in a resource-constrained, multipolar world John Humphrey Globalisation Team

  2. Outline • Looming, long-term crises • New powers and multipolarity • Equity • Timeframes • Governance

  3. Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy • Increasing population • Increasing levels of urbanisation • The rightful goal to alleviate poverty • Climate Change Climate Change Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) But food security is only part of a ‘Perfect Storm’ of global events John Beddington Chief Scientific Advisor UK Government

  4. GDP Projections, 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs, Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050

  5. USA Other OECD China Rest of Dev Asia India Source: David Dollar, presentation to GDN, Beijing,Jan 2007

  6. Financial crisis • Accelerates convergence • continuing growth in rising powers • possible stagnation in Europe • Heightens the need for global governance to be more inclusive – G20 not G8 • Undermines West’s claim for economic superiority • Increases confidence and assertiveness of rising powers

  7. Total GHG Emissions, 2000, MtCO2 equivalent

  8. Incremental GHG emissions 2004-30 (% of global total)

  9. GHG Emissions, 2000, per capita

  10. Cumulative CO2 Emissions, 1900-2005

  11. The Observer, Sunday 7 March 2010 • How food and water are driving a • 21st-century African land grab • An Observer investigation reveals how rich countries faced by a global food shortage now farm an area double the • size of the UK to guarantee supplies for their citizens A woman tends vegetables at a giant Saudi-financed farm in Ethiopia. ….Nestling below an escarpment of the Rift Valley, the development is far from finished, but the plastic and steel structure already stretches over 20 hectares – the size of 20 football pitches.

  12. Time • Climate or weather? • Long term stresses in relation to acute shocks • How much are current volatilities in food and energy prices indicators of long-term trends? • 2030 versus today • Bringing the future into the present

  13. Governance (1) • The Beddington strategy • defragment – in multiple crises • focus on risk and uncertainty • place value on the future – foresight

  14. Governance (2) Institutions • increase “bandwidth” – thicker relations to build trust and understanding (repeat transactions) • aggregate actors – not 180 countries • Regions? Types? Caucuses? • more authoritative knowledge – as in IPCC • strengthen G20 • a Secretariat, continuity of chairing, more advanced preparation • promote organisation of other states, rather than obstruct – cede power to make organisations work • focus on fairness rather than power • think about penalties for non-cooperators

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