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Global crises in a resource-constrained, multipolar world

As we face looming long-term crises in a multipolar world, the need for inclusive global governance becomes crucial. With projections indicating a 50% increase in energy and food demand by 2030, and significant challenges in water and climate, addressing these crises requires a comprehensive strategy focusing on equity and foresight. The rise of new powers underscores the shift in global dynamics, necessitating enhanced cooperation among nations. This analysis explores how to build trust, improve governance structures, and prioritize fairness to address these pressing global issues effectively.

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Global crises in a resource-constrained, multipolar world

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  1. Global crises in a resource-constrained, multipolar world John Humphrey Globalisation Team

  2. Outline • Looming, long-term crises • New powers and multipolarity • Equity • Timeframes • Governance

  3. Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy • Increasing population • Increasing levels of urbanisation • The rightful goal to alleviate poverty • Climate Change Climate Change Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) But food security is only part of a ‘Perfect Storm’ of global events John Beddington Chief Scientific Advisor UK Government

  4. GDP Projections, 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs, Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050

  5. USA Other OECD China Rest of Dev Asia India Source: David Dollar, presentation to GDN, Beijing,Jan 2007

  6. Financial crisis • Accelerates convergence • continuing growth in rising powers • possible stagnation in Europe • Heightens the need for global governance to be more inclusive – G20 not G8 • Undermines West’s claim for economic superiority • Increases confidence and assertiveness of rising powers

  7. Total GHG Emissions, 2000, MtCO2 equivalent

  8. Incremental GHG emissions 2004-30 (% of global total)

  9. GHG Emissions, 2000, per capita

  10. Cumulative CO2 Emissions, 1900-2005

  11. The Observer, Sunday 7 March 2010 • How food and water are driving a • 21st-century African land grab • An Observer investigation reveals how rich countries faced by a global food shortage now farm an area double the • size of the UK to guarantee supplies for their citizens A woman tends vegetables at a giant Saudi-financed farm in Ethiopia. ….Nestling below an escarpment of the Rift Valley, the development is far from finished, but the plastic and steel structure already stretches over 20 hectares – the size of 20 football pitches.

  12. Time • Climate or weather? • Long term stresses in relation to acute shocks • How much are current volatilities in food and energy prices indicators of long-term trends? • 2030 versus today • Bringing the future into the present

  13. Governance (1) • The Beddington strategy • defragment – in multiple crises • focus on risk and uncertainty • place value on the future – foresight

  14. Governance (2) Institutions • increase “bandwidth” – thicker relations to build trust and understanding (repeat transactions) • aggregate actors – not 180 countries • Regions? Types? Caucuses? • more authoritative knowledge – as in IPCC • strengthen G20 • a Secretariat, continuity of chairing, more advanced preparation • promote organisation of other states, rather than obstruct – cede power to make organisations work • focus on fairness rather than power • think about penalties for non-cooperators

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