Guy Hendrickx (1), Yves Van Der Stede (2), Estelle Meroc (2), Benoit Durand (3) & E. Ducheyne (1)

1. A Predictive BTV Wind Spread ModelA innovative approach which may contribute to improved vaccination schemes Guy Hendrickx (1), Yves Van Der Stede (2), Estelle Meroc (2), Benoit Durand (3) & E. Ducheyne (1) (1) Avia-GIS, (2) CODA, (3) AFSSA

2. Introduction Table of Contents Gen 1-2 Input • Introduction BTV • Previous wind models (gen 1-2) • Current wind model (gen 3) • Model Input Data • Model Parameters • Model Flow Chart • Model Outputs • Discussion Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

3. Introduction Live cycle Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion Culicoides chiopterusPicture ITM BTV spread in Europe

4. Introduction European biomes Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion Temperate: BTV 1-8 (6-11) Mediterranean: BTV 1-2-4-8-9-16 BTV spread in Europe

5. Introduction Current EU restriction zones Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

6. Introduction Table of Contents Gen 1-2 Input • Introduction BTV • Previous wind models (gen 1-2) • Current wind model (gen 3) • Model Input Data • Model Parameters • Model Flow Chart • Model Outputs • Discussion Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

7. June  November       Introduction 1rst generation model: BTV9 1999 Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

8. Introduction 2nd generation model: BTV8 2006 Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

9. Introduction 2nd generation model: BTV8 2006 Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

10. Introduction 2nd generation model: BTV8 2006 Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

11. Introduction Table of Contents Gen 1-2 Input • Introduction BTV • Previous wind models (gen 1-2) • Current wind model (gen 3) • Model Input Data • Model Parameters • Model Flow Chart • Model Outputs • Discussion Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

12. Introduction Model input data (1/3) Gen 1-2 Input • Epidemiological BTV1FR2008 data (AFSSA) at the municipality level  epidemiological curves • Denominator data (AFSSA) at municipality level  coordinates modeled within suitable LC • Vaccination BTV1FR2009data (AFSSA) Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

13. Introduction Model input data (2/3) Gen 1-2 Input • Entomological data: • In flight data ABTD 150-1000m (Goossens et al. subm.) • Rothamsted suction trap 11m (Fassotte et al. 2008) • OVI ground level traps (Fassotte et al. 2008) • Wind data (ECMWF) Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

14. Introduction Model input data (3/3) Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

15. Introduction Table of Contents Gen 1-2 Input • Introduction BTV • Previous wind models (gen 1-2) • Current wind model (gen 3) • Model Input Data • Model Parameters • Model Flow Chart • Model Outputs • Discussion Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

16. Introduction Model parameters (1/4) Gen 1-2 Input • Cluster analysis using a retrospective space-time permutation model (SatScan)  identify location (S1, S2,… Sn) and timing (tS1, tS2,… tSn) of the model seed cases. • Weekly incidence was calculated from the epidemiological curves and fitted using a least square estimator to the Verhulst-Pearl growth function (Verhulst, 1845). Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

17. Introduction Model parameters (2/4) Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

18. Introduction Model parameters (3/4) Gen 1-2 Input • Based on results 2nd gen. model (Hendrickx et al. 2008) a distinction is made between: • Local mainly midge-flight driven spread (LDS): 50% of the weekly incidence is observed within a range of 4km. • Medium range mainly wind driven spread (WDS): an additional 45% of the weekly incidence is observed within a range of 22km. Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

19. Introduction Model parameters (4/4) Gen 1-2 Input • Wind parameters included to restrict WDS: • highest Culicoides activity during the period prior to sunset (Fassotte et al., 2008) • highest density of airborne Culicoides at an altitude of 150m (Goossens et al., submitted). • The slowing impact of slope on medium distance wind spread (Bishop et al., 2000, 2005; Ducheyne et al., 2007; Hendrickx et al., 2008) was taken into consideration by reducing the wind magnitude relative to the slope. Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

20. Introduction Table of Contents Gen 1-2 Input • Introduction BTV • Previous wind models (gen 1-2) • Current wind model (gen 3) • Model Input Data • Model Parameters • Model Flow Chart • Model Outputs • Discussion Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

21. Introduction 3rd generation model flowchart Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

22. Introduction Table of Contents Gen 1-2 Input • Introduction BTV • Previous wind models (gen 1-2) • Current wind model (gen 3) • Model Input Data • Model Parameters • Model Flow Chart • Model Outputs • Discussion Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

23. Introduction Descriptive wind model BTV1 2008 Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

24. Introduction BTV1 FR 2008: Observed-weekly Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

25. Introduction BTV1 FR 2008: Observed-cumulative Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

26. Introduction BTV1 FR 2008 - simulated Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV1-2008 simulation output BTV1-2008 observed(Includes vaccination) BTV spread in Europe

27. Introduction Predictive wind model BTV1 2009 Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

28. Introduction BTV 1 – vaccination coverage bovine Gen 1-2 Input Adapted from: Parameters Data May 2009 included in model Flowchart Outputs Discussion Data August 2009 BTV spread in Europe

29. Introduction BTV 1 – vaccination coverage ovine Gen 1-2 Input Adapted from: Parameters Data May 2009 included in model Flowchart Outputs Discussion Data August 2009 BTV spread in Europe

30. Introduction BTV1 prediction 2009 – SW France Gen 1-2 Input Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

31. Introduction Table of Contents Gen 1-2 Input • Introduction BTV • Previous wind models (gen 1-2) • Current wind model (gen 3) • Model Input Data • Model Parameters • Model Flow Chart • Model Outputs • Discussion Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

32. Introduction Discussion Gen 1-2 Input • Significant step to predict BTV spread after first introduction: • Predict spatial extent • Improved vaccination policy • Further model improvements: • Include impact weather • Disentangle wind and movement Parameters Flowchart Outputs Discussion BTV spread in Europe

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