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Bond & Levy Voter Survey Conducted for:

C AMPBELL D E LONG R ESOURCES, INC. Bond & Levy Voter Survey Conducted for:. January/February 2006. METHODS. Goal: Understand voter attitudes towards potential bond & levy options for the November 2006 ballot Assess support for bond measure Assess support for 2 levy options

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Bond & Levy Voter Survey Conducted for:

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  1. CAMPBELL DELONG RESOURCES, INC. Bond & Levy Voter SurveyConducted for: January/February 2006

  2. METHODS • Goal: Understand voter attitudes towards potential bond & levy options for the November 2006 ballot • Assess support for bond measure • Assess support for 2 levy options • Determine impact on support for bond of placing a levy on the same ballot • Assess value of information regarding bond &/or levy TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  3. Methods • Methodology: Random sample telephone interviews. 3 samples of 300 interviews each: • $77 million bond (15¢ per thousand) • $77 million bond & 45¢ per thousand levy • $77 million bond & 55¢ per thousand levy • Sample reliability for 300 is ±5.6% • Respondent criteria: • Live in District • Vote in non-presidential general elections • Quota of half men & half women TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  4. RESEARCH RESULTS • Awareness of TVF&R • Contact with TVF&R • Reaction to Using Cash Reserves for Land Purchase • Measures of Bond & Levy Support • Usefulness of Key Messages TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  5. Awareness A few more aware TVF&R provides fire & medical services for their area 2004 n=400; 2006 n=302 Medical Services Fire Services 2006 2004 2006 2004 Other governments Tualatin Valley Fire & Rescue Other governments, primarily cities Tualatin Valley Fire & Rescue 2004 2004 2006 2006 TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  6. Contact Significantly fewer report personal contact with TVF&R in 2006 2004 n=400; 2006 n=300 No personal contact Had contact 2006 2004 TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  7. Contact 61% 36% 3% 62% 32% 6% 49% 46% 6% 42% 5% 54% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Little change in recall of news stories, but more recall of other communications from TVF&R since 2004 2004 n=400; 2006 n=300 Don’t know 2006 No news stories News stories Recall new stories about TVF&R 2004 2006 No communications Communications Recall communications from TVF&R 2004 TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  8. Land purchase Most say TVF&R using cash reserve funds to buy land has no effect on their support for the bond n=302 Reduce support Increase support No effect TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  9. Measures of Bond & Levy Support • Three separate surveys: • 1 question asked; will you vote for or against bond? • 2 questions asked; will you vote for or against bond? Will you vote for or against 45¢ levy? • 2 questions asked; will you vote for or against bond? Will you vote for or against 55¢ levy? TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  10. Bond n=302 No Don’t know Yes, for the bond 7 out of 10 say they will vote for the bond measure when asked only about the bond measure TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  11. Bond n=302 Still don’t know Voting no Leaning no Very confident yes Leaning yes Somewhat confident yes After being reminded of time before vote & that other measures will be on the ballot, 48% remain “very confident” they will vote “yes” in November TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  12. Bond Initial “yes” votes for bond stable when told both bond & levy likely to be on ballot. But “no” increases significantly Initial support for bond measure Bond only n=302; Bond with lower levy n= 301; Bond with higher levy n=300 No Yes, for the bond Don’t know Bond only Bond + 45¢ levy Bond + 55¢ levy TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  13. Bond Significantly fewer voters remain “very confident” they will vote for the bond when told levy will also be on ballot Bond only n=302; Bond with lower levy n= 301; Bond with higher levy n=300does not add to 100% due to rounding Still “don’t know” Not confident “yes” or leaning “yes” Leaning “no” or “no” Somewhat confident “yes” Very confident “yes” on bond Bond only Bond +45¢ levy Bond + 55¢ levy TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  14. Levy Size of levy does not have a significant impact on initial support Initial support for levy Bond with lower levy n= 301; Bond with higher levy n=300 45¢ per thousandlevy 55¢ per thousandlevy TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  15. Levy Size of levy does not have a significant effect on confidence of “yes” vote Bond only n=302; Bond with lower levy n= 301; Bond with higher levy n=300does not always add to 100% due to rounding Still “don’t know” Not confident “yes” or leaning “yes” Leaning “no” or “no” Somewhat confident “yes” Very confident “yes” on levy 45¢ per thousandlevy 55¢ per thousandlevy TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  16. Recent History: 2004 Levy Renewal July 2004 Survey November 2004 Levy Results n=400 “No” or leaning towards no Don’t know Leaning to “yes” “No” Very confident will vote “yes” Fence-sitting voters Somewhat confident will vote “yes” “Yes” 1/3 of fence-sitting voters in July voted “yes” in November TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  17. Analysis November 2006 Bond Only Projection January 2006 Survey Projected November 2006 Levy Results n=400 “No” or leaning towards no Don’t know Leaning to “yes” “No” Very confident will vote “yes” Fence-sitting voters “Yes” Somewhat confident will vote “yes” If 1/3 of fence-sitting voters vote “yes” in November 2006 TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  18. Analysis • Based on survey results & 2004 experience, in November 2006: • Bond; Bond passes with 60% “yes” • Bond + Lower Levy; Bond passes with 52% “yes” • Bond + High Levy; Bond passes with 54% “yes” • Using the same analysis on the Levy results in: • Lower Levy is defeated with 48% “yes” • Higher Levy is defeated with 48% “yes” TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  19. Usefulness of Key Facts TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  20. Levy facts Most useful fact is that response time of 6 minutes or better will be maintained Percent saying information is “very” useful Bond only n= 302; Bond with lower levy n= 301; Bond with higher levy n=300 Bond only Ensure response time of6 minutes or better throughout Bond + lower levy Bond + higher levy Ensure adequate # of firefighters to allow immediately, safe action Build 2 new stations to respond to current & future 9-1-1 calls Actual increase: Bond $20;Lower levy $40; Higher levy $60 TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  21. Levy facts Other useful facts often true for levy only Percent saying information is “very” useful Bond only n= 302; Bond with lower levy n= 301; Bond with higher levy n=300 Bond only Replace older engines Bond + lower levy Bond + higher levy Pay for 30/50 new firefighters &additional staff who support them Bond will build 2 stations& levy will pay for firefighter to staff them Help meet increased demand formedical services due to aging pop. TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  22. Levy facts Other bond facts often less useful Percent saying information is “very” useful Bond only n= 302; Bond with lower levy n= 301; Bond with higher levy n=300 Levy cost not on property tax bill until 2010 Bond + lower levy Bond + higher levy Bond only Rebuild 4 stations to address safetyaccess, & insufficient space Upgrade to protect 7 stations against earthquakes Purchase land for 3 future stations TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  23. Levy facts Least useful are facts bond will pay for upgrades for female firefighters & new Command Center Percent saying information is “very” useful Bond only n= 302; Bond with lower levy n= 301; Bond with higher levy n=300 Bond only Upgrade facilities for femalefirefighters Bond + lower levy Bond + higher levy Pay for new Command Center &business operations center TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  24. KEY CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS • Ask voters to approve a bond in November 2006, but wait until the current levy is ready to expire before going back to the voters with a levy request • Adequate support for the bond, but addition of levy reduces support & could be enough to jeopardize bond • At the same time, levy unlikely to pass • Many other money issues will be on ballot November ’06 & could make it harder to pass any money measure • Bond only is simpler message to communicate TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  25. Recommendations • Assuming the bond is the only TVF&R money measure on the ballot in November 2006, make sure voters know the bond will: • Help ensure typical emergency response times of 6 minutes or better are met throughout the area • Build 2 new stations to respond to current & future 9-1-1 fire & emergency medical calls • Pay for fire engines to replace older engines – typically those that are 15 years old or have 150,000 miles TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

  26. For answers to questions or more information about this research, contact: Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.Martha DeLong, Director of Research (503) 221-2005e-mail: MarthaD@cdri.com TVF&RWalt Peck(503) 642-0336e-mail: walter.peck@tvfr.com TVF&R Voter Survey Campbell DeLong Resources, Inc.

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