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The NEXT Space Race

10/15/2011. Dr. James F. Peters, The Boeing Company. 2.

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The NEXT Space Race

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    1. 10/16/2011 Dr. James F. Peters, The Boeing Company 1 The NEXT Space Race Space Race Paradigm Shift Market Overview Launch Services Telecommunications Satellites Futuristic Commercialization Opportunities Conclusions

    2. 10/16/2011 Dr. James F. Peters, The Boeing Company 2 Space Race Paradigm Shift The FIRST Space Race: National Pride - First to the moon Politically driven Cost low priority Significant public backing The NEXT Space Race: Economically driven - maximize ROI Commercial ventures Global partners and markets Cyberspace more interesting than outer space

    3. 10/16/2011 Dr. James F. Peters, The Boeing Company 3 Introductory Market Facts Over 4,000 orbital launches since 1957 Average of ~100 launches per year Average of ~115 payloads per year Average payload price is $75M Launch prices vary: $1.7M - $360M (Titan IV) Shuttle cost ~$500M / launch

    4. 10/16/2011 Dr. James F. Peters, The Boeing Company 4 Market Forces Degree to which new launch vehicle technologies can reduce the cost to orbit. Willingness of buyers and sellers to negotiate long-term contracts with favorable pricing. Launcher reliability and associated insurance premiums. Launcher dependability to meet launch date commitments and avoid lost revenues. Federal government tax incentives for new launchers. Need for human versus robotic space missions. Availability of spaceports, launch sites, and ranges.

    5. 10/16/2011 Dr. James F. Peters, The Boeing Company 5 Market Forces (Concluded) Competition between government subsidized launchers and those developed commercially with venture capital. U.S. regulations for technology export. Availability of financial capital necessary to develop new commercial launch systems. Demand for global space-based communications infrastructure versus ground-based infrastructure.

    6. 10/16/2011 Dr. James F. Peters, The Boeing Company 6 Launch Services Market Size

    7. 10/16/2011 Dr. James F. Peters, The Boeing Company 7 Global Commercial Space Launches

    8. 10/16/2011 Dr. James F. Peters, The Boeing Company 8 Launch Economics Economic variables of supply and demand are at work. Payload to Orbit Costs: LEO: Space Shuttle $10,000 per lb ELV $2,000 to $8,000 per lb GTO: ELV $8,000 to $15,000 per lb DOD EELV goals to reduce costs by 25 to 50% ~75% reduction in costs required to stimulate demand to grow market from 100 to 300 launches per year LEO: $100 to $500 per lb GTO: $1,000 to $5,000 per lb Reductions of this magnitude require RLVs with launch rates of 25 to 50 times per year.

    9. 10/16/2011 Dr. James F. Peters, The Boeing Company 9 Launch Economics (cont) Significant oversupply of launch capacity exists. Mainstream, struggling launchers: Ariane, Delta, Proton, Pegasus Both Ariane and Delta average 10 to 12 launchers per year. Starving for orders: Taurus, Athena, Conestoga, and many Russian, Ukrainian, and Chinese launchers. Dozens of RLV startups lacking investment capital. Kistler K-1, Rotary Roton, Eclipse Astroliner, etc. Even if only half of proposed launchers get built: 30 launcher programs with 60 models competing for market of 80 to 100 launchers per year.

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    16. 10/16/2011 Dr. James F. Peters, The Boeing Company 16 Conclusions The numerous commercial opportunities are futuristic Current projections indicate no growth over the next five years. Market structure is moving from oligopoly to perfect competition with over capacity and fierce price competition. There are many positive, negative, and neutral market forces. Long-term growth is tied to new technology and reduced payload-to-orbit launch costs to stimulate demand.

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