The Three Gulf Wars

1. The Three Gulf Wars The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988 The Expulsion of Iraq from Kuwait The Regime Change

2. Before the Iran-Iraq War • In the years after the 1967 Arab-Israeli War Iran, under the Shah, was a US ally while Iraq was in the Soviet camp • Iran kept an eye on the USSR & OPEC • Iraq bought arms from the USSR • Major changes in 1979 • Saddam Hussein & the Ayatollah Khomeini gained power in Iraq & Iran, respectively • The Soviet army rolled into Afghanistan

3. The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988 • In 1980, Iraq broke the Baghdad Pact, invading Iran, expecting an easy victory, finding more resistance than expected • In 1981, Israel bombed an Iraqi nuclear plant • In 1984, the USA, fearing victory by Iran, renewed diplomatic relations with Iraq • The USA armed & trained the Iraqi army • Finally, stalemate in 1988

4. Impact on Saddam of US Aid • Transformed Saddam into a much stronger, even more ruthless leader • Baathist power solidified, cult of the personality strengthened • The US had a hard time convincing Saddam to engage Iran in the final battles that secured a draw—and a ceasefire • In short, we contributed enormously to the creation of a nightmare

5. US Focus Remained on Iran • After the Iran-Iraq War, the US continued to focus on Iran rather than Iraq • Despite Saddam’s massacre of 5000 in Halabja 3/17/88 • Despite growing power of moderates in Iran • Operation Stanch: stop the flow of Iran • Around the Gulf to the other oil countries • Toward Israel

6. Status of Kuwait • 1899 agreement with Britain • 1913 boundary with Iraq defined by Anglo-Turkish Convention • 1938 oil discovered • 1976 government assumes control over oil • Monarchy with several levels of “citizenship” • Tight economic controls • 1990 April Glaspie: The US has no interest in Iraq’s claim that Kuwait is part of Iraq

7. Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait • Great celebrations among some Arabs, but not the other oil-producing countries • Fear over the safety of Israel • Fear over the global supply of petroleum • Commitment to reverse a clear violation of international law • Unanimous Security Council support for forcing Iraq out of Kuwait

8. Desert Shield to Desert Storm • In the fall of 1990 a global force gathered to quarantine Iraq and if necessary evict Iraq from Kuwait • Iraq essentially capitulated but with considerable casualties, retreating • Allied forces stopped short of Baghdad, having achieved their official objectives • Security Council extracts acquiescence from Iraq, imposing sanctions until conditions met

9. Iraqi Uprisings • Global forces encouraged Iraqi uprisings • Kurds rose up in the north, Shia Arabs in the south but not supported externally • No fly zones established • Sanctions imposed • Food for oil program initiated • Saddam remained deeply entrenched • Civilians suffered miserably

10. Meanwhile in Afghanistan . . . • Tradition of fiercely guarded independence • A pro-Soviet government, facing serious resistance, “invited” the USSR to provide military assistance • The USSR rolled into Afghanistan late in December of 1979 • Resistance was serious • Resistance was aided by the US • Pakistan cooperated

11. Emergence of the Taliban • 2 million Afghan refugees, mainly in Pakistan • Madrassas (Islamic schools) funded by the Saudis in refugee camps • The Taliban (students) became a major military force, eventually controlling most of the country • Al Qaeda emerged as a military force against the USSR, worked with the Taliban • Repressive regime with a puritanical interpretation of Islam, oppression of women

12. Emergence of Al Qaeda • Well funded, well armed, led by a charismatic leader, Al Qaeda became a major force for change for disaffected Muslims, particularly Saudis • Goals • End to sanctions against Iraq • USA out of Saudi Arabia • End of US support for the Saudi royal family

13. Al Qaeda Operations • Willing to use violent means to punish the US and other enemies • 1993 truck explosion in the basement of the World Trade Center • 1998 attacks on US embassies in East Africa • Many attacks against India • The 9/11 attack

14. Requirements for a Just War • Just cause • Right intention • Proper authority & public declaration • Last resort • Probability of success • Proportionality • Just peace

15. War against the Taliban • Given support of Al Qaeda, a just cause • If the intention was to remove Al Qaeda & establish just rule, the intention was just • Unprovoked attack provided the moral authority • Last resort? • Virtually certain success at removing the Taliban • Proportional to the attack on the US • Follow through with a just peace? Not yet

16. The Third Gulf War • New principle in International Law • Pre-emptive War: The Bush Doctrine • Bush, Blair justification for attacking Iraq • Implicated in The Attack on America • Imminent threat to the region & world • Need to free the people of Iraq • Opposition to the rush to war • Unwillingness to wait to gain UN support • Opening Pandora’s Box

17. Is the 3rd Gulf War Just? • Just Cause • Not part of the attack on America, not an imminent threat, certainly a vile regime • Right Intention • Why concentrate on Saddam when bin Laden is still loose? What if any part does oil play? • Proper Authority • Undercut international law by impatience with UN

18. Justice of the 3rd Gulf War (cont) • Last Resort • What was the big hurry? • Probability of Success • Removing Saddam was the easy part • Establishing rule of law is more difficult • Proportionality • Compared to other tyrants? • Just Peace

19. Just Peace for the Middle East • Given our willingness to go to war to change the Iraqi regime, we have an opportunity to change the facts on the ground • If we could establish a genuinely democratic government we could change the region • How many countries should there be in Iraq? • How can security & justice be provided? • Are we in more or less jeopardy? • How will our actions now affect our jeopardy?