Informal Influences in Selecting Female Political Candidates Les i nfluences informelles dans la sélection de femme c

1. Informal Influences in Selecting Female Political CandidatesLes influences informelles dans la sélection de femme candidats politiques Published in Political Research Quarterly 2011 13 Jan 2012 Dr Margit Tavits Washington University in St. Louis Dr Christine Cheng Exeter College, Univ. of Oxford @cheng_christine christinescottcheng.wordpress.com

2. « ...ce sont les femmes dans le parti qui m'a encouragé à participer plus profondément et d'enregistrer sur une liste pour les élections au Parlement cantonal.>> - Candidate de l'Europe de l’Ouest* “…it was the women in the party who encouraged me to get more deeply involved and to register on a list for the elections to the cantonal Parliament.” - Female candidate from Western Europe* * Politics: Women’s Insight, Inter-Parliamentary Union 2000, p.75. Cited in Women, Politics and Power by Pamela Marie Paxton, Melanie M. Hughes.

3. Agenda/Overview • Les informations de base et la question de recherche • Les mécanismes causals • Les méthodes et les données • L'analyse et les résultats • Les implications politiques

4. * Chambre unique/basse Inter Parliamentary Union Database (2010) www.ipu.org/wmn-f/classif.htm

5. Les femmes au parlement • Pourquoi est-ce que c’est important? • Différentes priorités politiques • salaire minimum, accès aux avortements, crèches, horaires flexibles • Les femmes représentent les intérêts des femmes mieux sur le fond(Tremblay 2000)

6. Les femmes au parlement • Comment pouvons-nous expliquer la proportion de femmes au parlement? • Les facteurs structurels: le système électoral, l'idéologie du parti, les quotas de genre, etc. • Au Canada: Un manque de soutien par les partis politiques et un environnement politique hyper-masculin • Aucune différence entre hommes et femmes dans l’argent amassé pour les campagnes • Dans les démocraties avancées,les électeurs ne soient pas discriminatoires entre les candidats hommes et femmes • Les influences informelles • Processus de sélection des MP • Les candidats potentiels  La sélection interne du parti Les candidats  La Campagne  Le représentant élu

7. Selecting local candidates • Selection takes place at local level, minimal outside intervention • Candidates are chosen at local nomination meetings • Voted upon by local party members if more than one person is running • Local party executives are key in both contested and uncontested nominations

8. Research Question • We already know that women: • Are more likely to see themselves as “not qualified” • Are less likely to be recruited, encouraged to run, be promoted from within party • BUT If asked by gatekeepers, more likely to consider candidacy, eliminating much of the gender gap • Gatekeepers are important! • Does the gender of party gatekeepers play a role in local candidate recruitment? • Hypothesis: Local female party presidents are more likely to field women candidates in their constituency • Relevant to other countries, other levels of government

9. Causal Mechanisms • Like recruits like • More likely to recruit & support people like themselves (Caul 1999; Kunovich and Paxton 2005; Huddy 1994; Niven 1998; Sigelman and Sigelman 1982; Erickson 1997; But see Lovenduski and Norris 1993; Tremblay and Pelletier 2001) • Social networking effect (Dow and Wood 2006) • Role Model effect (Beaman, Duflo, Pande, Topolova 2012) • Message: Women can succeed • Signalling effect • Welcoming environment; women are valued; “women friendly” (Lawless and Fox 2005; Trimble and Arscott 2003; Costantini 1990; but see Carroll 1985)

10. Similar studies • Tremblay and Pelletier 2001 • No evidence that Canadian female local party leaders are more women-friendly • Niven 1998 • Male party leaders preferred candidates like themselves • Revealed preference • Political correctness • Unaware of bias • Gendered networks • Chocolate vs. carrots analogy

11. Methods & Data • Dependent variable: gender of candidates at constituency level • Independent variable: gender of party presidents at constituency level • Bloc, Liberals, Conservatives, NDP, Greens • Controls: % women 18+, Share of female candidates in riding since 1980, Share of female party candidates, district competitiveness, district ideology, party ideology, incumbency, contested nomination, % English speakers, % college grads, % Catholics, avg. household income, region

12. 2004 & 2006 Election Data

13. Effect of local party president’s gender on candidate’s gender Note: Dependent variable: Female Candidate. **p ≤ .05, ***p ≤ .01

14. Effect of local party president’s gender on the candidate’s gender

15. Findings • Probit regression • Use predicted probabilities to understand results • Gender of local party president matters • 6% more likely to have a female candidate if local party president is female • Party, Affirmative Action, % Share of women 18+ in district statistically significant • District ideology, District Competitiveness, Incumbency not significant • Other control variables not significant • Correlation doesn’t imply causation, but the relationship is robust!

16. Surprising Findings • Share of female candidates in district since 1980 matters • 18% difference • Share of female party candidates in district since 1980 matters • 34% difference • Exposure Effect, Demonstration effect

17. Policy Implications (Based on this study) • Gender composition of the candidate selectorate (gatekeepers) is correlated with gender of candidates • If we want more female candidates in the future: • Recruit more women into local party executives • Field more female candidates today! • Target constituencies with fewest female candidates • Riding Competitiveness