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U6 The Presidency

This presentation explores the competitive landscape of presidential and congressional elections. It highlights key differences, such as narrower winning margins in presidential races, the impact of term limits on incumbency, and the partisanship in the White House compared to Congress. It discusses the significance of midterm elections, the role of candidates in appealing to partisan voters, and the various factors influencing election outcomes, including advertising, debates, familiarity with issues, and voter behavior. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for navigating the electoral process.

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U6 The Presidency

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  1. U6 The Presidency ADDITIONAL SLIDES

  2. Running for President President v. Congressional elections • Pres. race is more competitive than Congress; winning margins are narrower • term limits cut incumbency advantage • White House—more partisan changes than Congress • fewer people vote in midterm elections • candidates must appeal to more partisan/activist voters • Congressional incumbents can serve their constituents, take credit for federal aid, use direct communication (where Pres. relies on mass media) • Cong. candidates can campaign against Washington (“I’m an outsider!”); Pres. is held accountable • Cong. candidate suffers when his/her party’s econ. policies fail

  3. So, let’s run for President! • Getting noticed by “the Great Mentioner” (reporters, trips, speeches; be a governor of a large state) • Money (individual/PAC limitations--$1000-5000) • candidates must raise $5000 in 20 states to qualify for federal matching grants for primaries • Issues • Position issues: candidates have opposing views, voters are divided (party realignment may result if issue is big enough—1860-slavery) • 2000: social security, defense, school choice • 2004: stem-cell research, national security, flight suits/Purple Hearts • valence issues: candidate supports the public, widely-held view (strong economy, low crime) • increasingly important, as TV pushes popular symbols, admired images) The New “Chattering Classes?” The Great Mentioner?

  4. Hey! I’m Running! Look at Me! • advertising (helps lesser-known candidates—Carter, 1976) • news coverage (‘visuals”) low cost, credibility with voters (maybe) • debates • usually good only for challenger • risk “slips of the tongue” • forces reliance on stock (“stump”) speeches, selling yourself rather than ideas Ronnie drinks Walter’s milkshake

  5. What Decides Elections? • party identification--but why, then don’t Democrats always win? • Dem’s less “wedded” to party than Reps • GOP does better on Independents • GOP has higher turnout • Issues, esp. economy • Prospective voting • voting based on “forward-looking;” who will handle the major issues best? (requires info. about issues; common among activists) • Retrospective voting • judge the incumbent’s record and vote • have things gotten better or worse? Now vote (as in 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004) • usually helps incumbent, unless economy is worse

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