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SFF HDD and Flash Memories Coexistence or Competition?

SFF HDD and Flash Memories Coexistence or Competition?. A Summary of IDEMA Symposium February 17, 2005 Westin Hotel, Santa Clara, CA. Vs. Dr. Ed Grochowski DISKCON AP Rama Gardens Hotel Bangkok March 14, 2005 Orchid Country Club, Singapore March 16-17, 2005. Symposium Objectives.

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SFF HDD and Flash Memories Coexistence or Competition?

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  1. SFF HDD and Flash Memories Coexistence or Competition? A Summary of IDEMA Symposium February 17, 2005 Westin Hotel, Santa Clara, CA Vs. Dr. Ed Grochowski DISKCON AP Rama Gardens Hotel Bangkok March 14, 2005 Orchid Country Club, Singapore March 16-17, 2005

  2. Symposium Objectives • Review Technical Attributes of HDD and Flash Technologies • Determine Present and Future Applications for Each • What HDD FF Are Required To Meet Applications • What Flash Products Are Required to Meet Applications • Areas Where Each Will Compete • Areas Where Each Will Coexist • Areas Where Each Could Dominate Ed Grochowski

  3. Scope of Study • Consumer Based Applications • Digital Still Cameras • Video Cameras • Mobile phones • MP3 Players • GPS • Games • Small FF HDD, 2.5 inch, 1.8 inch, 1.0 inch, 0.85 inch • Flash Capacities • Unit Prices and Projections Ed Grochowski

  4. Why This Symposium? • Explosion of Storage For Consumer Based Applications • SFF HDD Have Made Inroads in Traditional Flash Territory • Demand For Higher Storage Capacities May Open New Opportunities For SFF HDD • Both Flash And SFF HDD’S Are Evolving • In Certain Applications Both Technologies Will Coexist Ed Grochowski

  5. Average Price of Storage 100000 HDD DRAM Flash DRAM/Flash 10000 1000 Price/GByte, Dollars 1 " HDD 100 Mobile/Server HDD 10 1 Desktop HDD 0.1 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 oemprc2005EG1.prz Year Ed Grochowski

  6. Areal Density of HDD and DRAM/FLASH HDD HDD Projection 40% CGR } 8G 100% CGR 4G MLC 2G NAND Flash 1G 1000 DRAM/Flash 100 10 60% CGR 1 512M Areal Density, Gbits/inch2 256M 25% CGR 64M 0.1 40% CGR 16M 25% = 2X per 3 years 40 2 0.01 60 1.5 4M 100 1 1M 0.001 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 AREAL2005EGa.PRZ Year EdGrochowski

  7. A Clear Dichotomy has Emerged John Buttress,IDC

  8. Many Markets, Many Configurations required for HDD’s in Digital CE applications for next 3 years 3.5" Hi Cap 2.5" 1" 1" CF 3.5" Ext 3.5" LC 1.8" .85" DVR Home Media Gaming MP3 Mobile Video Players Cell Phones Multi function devices Digital Cameras Digital Camcorders Auto Navigation Auto Entertainment Pat O’Malley, Seagate Interfaces required: PATA, SATAUSB, CF, CEATA, 1394

  9. HH Units TAM by Form Factor 160 • 1.8” • Significant upside but limited growth • High-end HH devices – photo MP3, Portable Media Player • 1.0” 2hd • Estimate 500% growth rate from 2004 to 2005 • MP3 player explosion • Market is still supply limited • Mobile Phone FF • 2.5G technology support Messaging Service(i.e. SMS) • Started to adopt 3G technology which enables up to 2 Mbps transfer rate • Estimate 60M units smart phone and 390M units of camera phone in 2005 Millions 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1.8" 1" Mobile phone • Pat O’Malley, Seagate • Source: Seagate SMP,IDC

  10. John Osterhout, Hitachi GST

  11. John Osterhout, Hitachi GST

  12. John Osterhout, Hitachi GST

  13. Other Digital Audio USB Drives Mobile Phones DSC/DVC The Forest From The Trees • HDD Unit TAM vs. NAND Unit Flash TAM Million Units 1,600 1,400 Total HDD Units 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 - 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total NAND Flash Cards and NAND Systems, Million Units - SanDisk Estimates Jan05 HDD Unit Forecast – TrendFOCUS Apr04 Wes Brewer, SanDisk

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