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Trade Progress Assessment: EU-Georgia, EU-Moldova, EU-Ukraine DCFTAs

Discover the current status of trade relations between the EU and Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, implications of DCFTAs, trade statistics, reform agendas, and the role of civil society. Contact Joanna Miksa at joanna.miksa@ec.europa.eu for more information.

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Trade Progress Assessment: EU-Georgia, EU-Moldova, EU-Ukraine DCFTAs

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  1. EU-Georgia EU-Moldova EU-UkraineDCFTAs Where do we stand today? Joanna Miksa - DG Trade – European Commission

  2. Legal framework • GE and MD DCFTAs implemented since 1 September 2014 • UA DCFTA scheduled to start on 1 January 2016 • Autonomous Trade Preference for Ukraine since April 2014 Transition arrangements in place: • GSP+ for Georgia until end 2016 • Autonomous Trade Preference for Moldova until end 2015

  3. Implications of DCFTA • For products – lower or 0% import duties  cheaper exports • For services – ability to export services and expand business contacts in services • For investment – equal treatment of companies setting up subsidiaries or offices, in (almost) any sector • For the country – reforms reformsreforms • For the citizens and civil society – empowerment, impact on government policies

  4. Do we trade more? -- Ukraine • overall fall in exports (-13,5%) in 2014, but EU share increases (+4%, to 31%) against Russia's share (-6%, to 18%). • Imports from UA stable 2013-2014 against a number of external factors. • EU export to UA has fallen by 28% in 2014. • Factors: war in Donbas, Russia's trade bans, macroeconomic stability, currency depreciation

  5. Do we trade more? -- Moldova • overall exports stable (-3%) but EU share increases (+7%, to 53%) against CIS (-7%, to 31%) in 2014. • EU imports from MD: +20% in 2014, but under DCFTA: 0% growth. But EU share in total trade upward in 2015 • EU exports to MD: +3% in 2014, but -3% under DCFTA • Factors: macroeconomic stability, currency depreciation, Russia's trade bans

  6. Do we trade more? -- Georgia • overall exports stable (-1%) but EU share increases (+1%, to 21%) against CIS (-4%, to 51%) in 2014. • EU imports from GE: (-1.5%) growth in 2014, but under DCFTA: +23%. EU share in total trade upward in 2015 • EU exports to GE: -6% in 2014, and -4% under DCFTA • Factors: automotive sector (re-exports to AZ), currency depreciation, regional stability

  7. Reform agenda: the ship has left the harbour… • Moldova: ambitious timeframes and scope of reform (475 EU acts over 10 years); frontloaded; XX acts to be adopted in 2015 • Georgia: more cautious approach, narrower scope (107 acts – SPS excl.); legislative reforms to start in year 2 • Ground-work for reforms ongoing (e.g. food safety, technical assistance), also in Ukraine • First meetings – Trade Committee, sub-committees, civil society

  8. …but is not yet at cruising speed • Ca. 1 year before first assessment of trade flows (cf. unexpected events) • Ca. 5 years before first assessment of the results of reform • Expected long-term impact: • Boost of Georgia's GDP by +4.3%, +12% exports, +7.5% imports • Boost of Moldova GDP by +5.4%, +16% exports, +8% imports

  9. Civil society –role in DCFTA implementation • Reforms to boost competitiveness, create jobs, lower consumer prices, increase quality of living and governance standards • Civil society as an observer AND contributor to the reform process: Domestic Advisory Group • Trade and Sustainable Development Sub-Committee • Contribute to and push for inclusive policy-making

  10. THANK YOU Joanna Miksa Bilateral Trade Coordinator - Moldova DG Trade – European Commission joanna.miksa@ec.europa.eu Tel. +32 2 295 64 71

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