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EU-Georgia EU-Moldova EU-Ukraine DCFTAs

EU-Georgia EU-Moldova EU-Ukraine DCFTAs. Where do we stand today? Joanna Miksa - DG Trade – European Commission. Legal framework. GE and MD DCFTAs implemented since 1 September 2014 UA DCFTA scheduled to start on 1 January 2016 Autonomous Trade Preference for Ukraine since April 2014

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EU-Georgia EU-Moldova EU-Ukraine DCFTAs

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  1. EU-Georgia EU-Moldova EU-UkraineDCFTAs Where do we stand today? Joanna Miksa - DG Trade – European Commission

  2. Legal framework • GE and MD DCFTAs implemented since 1 September 2014 • UA DCFTA scheduled to start on 1 January 2016 • Autonomous Trade Preference for Ukraine since April 2014 Transition arrangements in place: • GSP+ for Georgia until end 2016 • Autonomous Trade Preference for Moldova until end 2015

  3. Implications of DCFTA • For products – lower or 0% import duties  cheaper exports • For services – ability to export services and expand business contacts in services • For investment – equal treatment of companies setting up subsidiaries or offices, in (almost) any sector • For the country – reforms reformsreforms • For the citizens and civil society – empowerment, impact on government policies

  4. Do we trade more? -- Ukraine • overall fall in exports (-13,5%) in 2014, but EU share increases (+4%, to 31%) against Russia's share (-6%, to 18%). • Imports from UA stable 2013-2014 against a number of external factors. • EU export to UA has fallen by 28% in 2014. • Factors: war in Donbas, Russia's trade bans, macroeconomic stability, currency depreciation

  5. Do we trade more? -- Moldova • overall exports stable (-3%) but EU share increases (+7%, to 53%) against CIS (-7%, to 31%) in 2014. • EU imports from MD: +20% in 2014, but under DCFTA: 0% growth. But EU share in total trade upward in 2015 • EU exports to MD: +3% in 2014, but -3% under DCFTA • Factors: macroeconomic stability, currency depreciation, Russia's trade bans

  6. Do we trade more? -- Georgia • overall exports stable (-1%) but EU share increases (+1%, to 21%) against CIS (-4%, to 51%) in 2014. • EU imports from GE: (-1.5%) growth in 2014, but under DCFTA: +23%. EU share in total trade upward in 2015 • EU exports to GE: -6% in 2014, and -4% under DCFTA • Factors: automotive sector (re-exports to AZ), currency depreciation, regional stability

  7. Reform agenda: the ship has left the harbour… • Moldova: ambitious timeframes and scope of reform (475 EU acts over 10 years); frontloaded; XX acts to be adopted in 2015 • Georgia: more cautious approach, narrower scope (107 acts – SPS excl.); legislative reforms to start in year 2 • Ground-work for reforms ongoing (e.g. food safety, technical assistance), also in Ukraine • First meetings – Trade Committee, sub-committees, civil society

  8. …but is not yet at cruising speed • Ca. 1 year before first assessment of trade flows (cf. unexpected events) • Ca. 5 years before first assessment of the results of reform • Expected long-term impact: • Boost of Georgia's GDP by +4.3%, +12% exports, +7.5% imports • Boost of Moldova GDP by +5.4%, +16% exports, +8% imports

  9. Civil society –role in DCFTA implementation • Reforms to boost competitiveness, create jobs, lower consumer prices, increase quality of living and governance standards • Civil society as an observer AND contributor to the reform process: Domestic Advisory Group • Trade and Sustainable Development Sub-Committee • Contribute to and push for inclusive policy-making

  10. THANK YOU Joanna Miksa Bilateral Trade Coordinator - Moldova DG Trade – European Commission joanna.miksa@ec.europa.eu Tel. +32 2 295 64 71

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