Coastal Oceans and Shelf Seas Task Team “ Half-day” meeting

1. Coastal Oceans and Shelf Seas Task Team “Half-day” meeting Pierre De Mey, LEGOS/U. Toulouse VillyKourafalou, RSMAS/U. Miami

2. Meeting agenda 1330-1345Overview of TT goals and activities 1345-1430Strategy topic 1: Scientific support of the development of Coastal Ocean Forecasting Systems (COFS) and applications+ discussion 1430-1500 Strategy topic 2: Integration between COFS and GOV systems+ discussion 1500-1530 Coffee/tea break 1530-1600 Strategy topic 3: Linking with the regional and coastal altimetry community+ discussion 1600-1630 Links with other TTs: presentations by members of other TTs on integration with COSS-TT welcome. Short presentations (5’) by attendees are welcome in relation to the strategy topics. E.g. GOV groups are encouraged to briefly present their downscaling projects in topic 2 and links with OSEVal-TT, biogeochemical applications (MEAP-TT) or data assimilation (DAT-TT) are welcome in the “Links” session.

3. TT goals and activities

4. Task Teams in the GODAE OceanView organisation

5. Objectives of the Coastal Oceans and Shelf Seas Task Team Mission Goal: Advance science in support of sustainable multidisciplinary downscaling and forecasting activities in the world coastal oceans. Strategic goal: Help achieve a seamless framework from the global to the coastal/littoral scale. Dual objectives as per current Work Plan: • Establish community links between ongoing Coastal Ocean Forecasting Systems (COFS) in order to advance science in support of COFS • Convene forums to discuss targeted science issues.

6. “Science in support of coastal forecasting”: science drivers Priority areas where science can help the development of Coastal Ocean Forecasting Systems: • Monitoring of physical, geochemical and biological parameters in coastal regions • Development of fine-scale coastal ocean models • Integration: Downscaling the ocean estimation problem from large-scale to coastal-scale models, data and forcings, coastal data assimilation and prediction • Coastal-scale atmosphere-waves-ocean couplings • Ecosystem response to the physical drivers (added at ICW3) • Probabilistic approaches and risk assessment in the coastal ocean, including extreme events

7. Examples of systems from Systems Information Table I: Americas II: Asia and Australia III: Europe

8. TT members as of Oct, 2014 TT members • COSS-TT is engaging the international Coastal Ocean and Shelf Seas modeling/forecasting community (COSS-COMM) • International Coordination Workshops are open to the COSS-COMM • > 100 people in COSS-COMM mailing listat the moment

9. A few actitivies and achievements • The Task Team acts as a link between the international Coastal Ocean Forecasting communityand GODAE OceanView. • A CoastalSystems Information Table is available (last update May 2014). • Three International Coordination Workshopshave been organized so far; these have been successfully embraced by the community as a much needed forum to discuss latest scientific advances, promote international networking and update strategic planning. (Next workshop: Lisbon, 1-4 Sep 2015.) • Several special sessions have been sponsored by the Task Team at AGU and OSM over the years; these have consolidated the outcomes of the TT workshops and allowed exposure of TT goals and outcomes through outreach to the broader scientific community. The most recent session was in Hawai’i. • Links have been established with other active international communities, such as the Coastal Altimetry community and EuroGOOS. • Two synthetic COSS Community papers from the 2013 Symposium have been accepted for publication in JOO. • A COSS Topical Collection of papers (32) has been launched in Oc. Dynamics • A Science Strategy Plan in the works. ICW1, Miami, Jan 2012 ICW3, Puerto Rico, Jan 2014 ICW2, Lecce, Feb 2013

10. Puerto Rico workshop agenda (Jan 2014) • Science sessions • SCI1: Progress of coastal ocean forecasting systems, networks and applications  6 papers • SCI2: Downscaling the ocean estimation problem and assimilating local data  6 papers • SCI3: Towards fine-scale coastal ocean modelling 2 papers • SCI4: Coastal-scale atmosphere-waves-ocean couplings 6 papers • SCI5: Long-term monitoring, array design and OSSEs in coastal regions  5 papers • Coordination topics • Towards a COSS-TT Science Strategy Plan (SSP)  Working Groups (// sessions) • Exchanging information in the COSS Community  update & discussion • Update on the “COSS-TT Initiative” MoU • Discussions on response to review, community paper, etc.

11. Lisbon workshop (Sept 2015) • 1-4 September 2015 • Kindlyhosted by MARETEC, Lisbon, Portugal • 1st Announcement April 2014 (on GOV web site) • Science program TBA • Invite members of the GOVST and GOV Patrons Group to the workshop • Discuss coastal interfaces • Discuss coastal applications, targeted variables and ranges • Discuss on case studies / pilot experiments to assess the quality of large-scale products aimed at serving the downstream needs of COFS and applications.

12. Known COSS involvement of GOV Patrons (as of Oct 2014) • “COSS involvement ” examples • Run COFS • Fund science or observations in support of the development of COFS • Run or facilitate COFS applications • Corrections welcome!

13. GOV review – 7 Nov 2013 • Panel : • Albert Fischer, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, France • ShiroImawaki, JAMSTEC, Japan • Ming Ji, NOAA Ocean Prediction Center, USA • Ralph Rayner, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics, UK • Neville Smith, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia • Richard W. Spinrad, Oregon State University, USA (Chair) • Chosen excerpts • “The Panel recommends the formal development […] of a strategic plan(with 5 and 10 year horizons)” (regarding GOV as a whole) • “Some Task Teams may require a tighter focus to their activities (e.g., the Coastal and Shelf Seas Task Team)” • “Consistent with the GOV strategic plan, the challenges in this Task Team’s science strategy document need to be prioritized by the ‘value add’ of collective action.” • “Focus should be on the interfaces between GOV systems and coastal models and applications. ” • “This Task Team should develop a dialogue with other groups working on coastal model development and applications (e.g., Delft Hydraulics, DHI, HR Wallingford, US Army Corps of Engineers, etc.).”

14. Main goal: Support research and development to advance coastal ocean forecasting, through the integration of observations and models in coastal areas and in synergy with larger scale observatories and modeling systems. Strategy topic 1: Scientific support of the development of Coastal Ocean Forecasting Systems (COFS) and applications

15. “Science in support of coastal forecasting”: science drivers Priority areas where science can help the development of Coastal Ocean Forecasting Systems: • Monitoring of physical and biogeochemical parameters in coastal regions • Development of fine-scale coastal ocean models • Downscaling the ocean estimation problem from large-scale to coastal-scale models, data and forcings, coastal data assimilation and prediction (model/data integration) • Coastal-scale atmosphere-waves-ocean couplings • Ecosystem response to the physical drivers • Probabilistic approaches and risk assessment in the coastal ocean, including extreme events

16. (1) Monitoring of physical and biogeochemical parameters in coastal regions • Multi-platform and interdisciplinary Coastal Ocean Observing Systems • Coastal/regional array design:OSE/OSSEs, Representer Matrix Spectrum… • Monitoring needs in a variety of scales (mesoscale / sub-mesoscale; short to long term) • Fine scale modeling: seamless transition from large to shelf to coastal and estuarine scale • Integration of coastal observing systems and fine scale models • Advances in policy: establishment of regional observing systems • Advances in instruments and methods (CA, SWOT…)

17. Needs in boundary conditions, topography and forcing functions (see also Topic2) • (2) Development of fine-scale coastal ocean models NW Pacific Japan Sea Seto inland Provided by N. Usui (MRI-JMA) NE Pacific California coast San Francisco Bay Kourafalou et al. (2014)

18. (3)Downscaling the ocean estimation problem from large-scale to coastal-scale models, data and forcings, coastal data assimilation and prediction (model/data integration) Downscaling methodologies • Dynamicaldownscaling • (Purely)Statisticaldownscaling • Dynamicaldownscalingwith assimilation (1 and 3 used to downscale COFS into LOFS)

19. (4) Coastal-scale atmosphere-waves-ocean couplings • Ensure consistency in the fluxes that go between the various coupled models • (atmosphere-to-ocean, atmosphere-to-wave, wave-to-ocean); example: sfc currents accounting for turbulence/fast response to wind • Reassess calibration strategies of individual models • Reassess parameterization of flux transfer between models • Observations needed at model interfaces

20. Coastal ocean coupled (wave-currents) model example: German Bight German Bight: storm conditions German Bight: “normal” conditions Kourafalou et al. (2014)

21. (5) Ecosystem response to the physical drivers Coastal ocean coupled (biophysical) model example: Gulf of Mexico (offshore removal of Mississippi River plume waters under Loop Current influence) Model simulated chl-a Monthly mean MODIS observed chl-a Monthly mean Provided by R. He (NCSU)

22. (6) Probabilistic approaches and risk assessment in the coastal ocean, including extreme events Probabilistic forecasting: Forecast the (qualified) likelihood of occurrence of events. Still in early development, but with increasing need, esp. for management and decision support – important for extreme events and preparedness for climate change. Alternative to the “classical” deterministic approach: - Account for uncertainty in a dynamical system by generating a representative sample of the possible future states; - Address possible growth of small initial state errors (or model parameterization issues) to significant forecast inaccuracies in time: perform multiple runs with either realistic perturbations of the initial state, or with different models (or model formulations). Advantages: - good approach when data are scarce for model initialization/forcing/validation (common in coastal areas) - preferable practice for management, facilitates decision making and crisis management Examples: Coastal flooding and sea-level surges, surface drift forecasting, extreme events, …

23. UTILITY OF COASTAL SYSTEMS • sustainably manage coastal and ocean areas • portray the ocean state today, next week and for the next decade • increase shipping efficiency • mitigate storm damage and flooding of coastal areas • sustain fisheries and fish stocks • protect important ecosystems from degradation • help decision-making in times of crisis • improve climate forecasting in response to global change

24. Application example: Southern Adriatic Sea Surface Oil Hazard (> 1 kg/km2 probability of oil presence) June average Ship Line Distribution June average Kourafalou et al. (2014)

25. Topic 1 as a Focus Area for annual activities? • Types of annualactivities • Workshops: sharing experience and best practices • COFS System Information Table (SIT) • Web site withtoolsinventory • Special issues and review articles on key tools/methods • Expectedoutcomes • Supporting the science behind the development of COFS worldwide • Objectivelyassess certain monitoring designs (such as SWOT) • Investment • Scientific support of the development of COFS worldwide • Sharing the scientific advancements through international collaboration • Exchange of best practices / Capacity building • Reaching out to coastal modeling efforts worldwide • Disseminate novel methodologies and scientific advancements in support of COFS in international forums • Visibility of GOV in international coastal community

26. Nextyear’sactivities (draft) – 1 • GOV review • “Consistent with the GOV strategic plan, the challenges in this Task Team […] need to be prioritized by the ‘value add’ of collective action.” • “Focus should be on the interfaces between GOV systems and coastal models and applications. ” • Focus area A: Scientific support of the development of COFS and applications • Sept. 2015 Lisbon workshop science topics TBD (usually 2-3 targeted science topics & 1 applications topic) • Lisbon workshop new systems review • Oc.Dyn. COSS Topical Collection (deadline Feb 2015, 32 ms. announced)

27. Strategy topic 2: Integration between COFS and GOV systems

28. Objectives of the Coastal Oceans and Shelf Seas Task Team Mission Goal: Advance science in support of sustainable multidisciplinary downscaling and forecasting activities in the world coastal oceans. Strategic goal: Help achieve a seamless framework from the global to the coastal/littoral scale. Dual objectives as per current Work Plan: • Establish community links between ongoing Coastal Ocean Forecasting Systems (COFS) in order to advance science in support of COFS • Convene forums to discuss targeted science issues.

29. “Downscaling” • Scalesrefinement – of all information sources: model, observations, forcings(lateral, rivers, atmosphere) • Additionalprocesseswrt large-scale solutions • Enhancedrepresentativity of local obs, of local forcings and couplings • Added value wrt large-scale solutions, for both science and applications (Herzfeld, CSIRO) (EuroSITES) (IOOS)

30. Downscaling methodologies • Dynamicaldownscaling– e.g.: • AGRIF (Blayo/Debreu, 2002): Adaptive meshrefinement (+ optional 2D coupling), withinsame model • Two-waycoupling LRHR (e.g. Vandenbulcke et al., 2006) • “Spectral nudging”of HR model towards LR scales (e.g. Garreau et al., 2013 shown at Lecce workshop), modelscandiffer • (Purely)Statisticaldownscaling • Use predictors LRHR – several types (e.g. Hessami et al., 2004) • Dynamicaldownscalingwith assimilation • Considers LR solution as an imperfect source of information, just as local observations and forcings (lateral, rivers, atm) • Modelscandiffer • Simultaneous use of local observations • Requiresvalidated LR errorestimates • Can beextended to use several large-scale solutions (super-ensembles). (1 and 3 used to downscale COFS into LOFS)

31. Dynamical downscaling with DA in the French AMICO project • Bay of Biscay 3D hydrodynamical model • S26 • Period: 07/11-06/12 • Enhancedbathymetryproduct (LEGOS) • FES2012 tidal product (LEGOS) • Open BCs • MERCATOR IBI/BISCAY36: SSH,T,S,U,V • 100-member LR ensemble (MyOcean2) • DA • EnKF • Assimilate local obs and LR model solution • LR ensemble provides LR errorestimate Provided by N. Ayoub and P. De Mey (LEGOS)

32. Integrationbetween COFS and LOFS systems – subtopics • Subtopic 2.1: Practical integration through downscaling • Science/numerics: space-time resolution of large-scale products, obc, bathymetry, forcings, transients, tides, wave-current interactions, IGW… • Downscaling methodology • Obs-related: consistent quality control, consistent “zeroes” (e.g. steric) • DA-related • … • Subtopic 2.2: Demonstrating the added-value of downscaling • Suitability (what do we mean by that?) of GOV products for downscaling • Consistent reference data sets and metrics • Choice of target variables (e.g. surface currents) • Trade-offs (e.g. increased instability/noise while resolution increases) • …

33. Topic 2 as a Focus Area for annual activities? • Types of annualactivities • R&D (Strategy Topic 1: workshops, tools sharing, scientific articles) • Pilot downscaling case studies associating voluntary GOV groups and Regional/Coastal OFS • To be first discussed here in Beijing! Who, when, where, funding? • Lisbon workshop: discuss proposals. • Expectedoutcomes • Scientific prototypes of integrated COFS, towardsseamlessintegration • Identification of R&D areas for COFS: guide COFS development and productdefinition • Guide definition of LOFS service to regional/coastal OFS community • Investment • Active collaboration of some GOV groups withsome COSS groups • Flag financial support for regional Pilot case studies in regions of interest for Patrons • Time + travel/money to attend COSS workshops

34. Next year’s activities (draft) – 2 • Focus Area B: Integration between COFS and GOV systems • Update list of ongoing downscaling activities from GOV LOFS • Intra- or inter-agencies • Research-level or operational • SIT + GOV-wide survey • Lisbon workshop dedicated session, GOV LOFS invited • How do LOFS validate and qualify their products to service regional/coastal ics/bcs? • What are COFS expectations regarding LOFS solutions? • Downscaling strategies and good practices: frequencies, variables, methods, modelling choices (detiding, bathymetry transients, atm pressure, etc.) • Consistent validation of COFS and LOFS – common validation datasets (phy/bio) • Select pilot activities with above components, identify supplementary resources needed • Downscaling WP?

35. Strategy topic 3: Linking with the regional and coastal altimetry community

36. Courtesy M. Cirano, C. ReinertBulhões de Morais, R. Parkinson, C. Dufau

37. Courtesy C. Dufau

38. Courtesy C. Dufau

39. Courtesy C. Dufau

40. Courtesy N. Picot, C. Dufau

41. SWOT SDT meeting, Toulouse, June 2014 The SWOT small scales challenge to COFS: Tidal front and internal tides in the Iroise Sea (Bay of Biscay) Courtesy Marié et al.

42. SWOT SDT meeting, Toulouse, June 2014 The SWOT surface velocities estimation challenge: total vs. geostrophic currents over the shelf NEMO- BISCAY 1/36° 100-member ensemble (LEGOS/MERCATOR-Océan - MyOcean) CourtesyVervatis, De Mey, Testut, Ayoub

43. Observational networks assessment metrics (2004) PEVR%: Posterior Ensemble Variance Reduction – NEA EnKF sea level zonal velocity 6,6 21,2 Jason 9,6 36,4 2 Jason 14,0 45,2 3 Jason 16,9 50,8 4 Jason 18,8 53,6 5 Jason 19,0 54,3 6 Jason 13,3 43,9 AltiKa3 (time lag) 15,4 36,3 WSOA 10d 18,4 63,2 20 tide gauges - 6h 12,6 49,9 20 tide gauges - 12h 24,8 70,0 AltiKa3 + 20 tide gauges - 6h 26,8 69,9 WSOA 10d + 20 tide gauges - 6h 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Complementarity between WSOA and tide gauges Courtesy Mourre, De Mey, Le Provost

44. Topic 3 as a Focus Area for annual activities? • COSS-CA link can be FA; alternately CA community can be one of the bodies that GOV is committed to engage on annual basis • Types of annual activities • Cross-attendance at workshops (specific sessions) • Specific joint workshop “Altimetry for Coastal Ocean Forecasting” (one-time or recurrent, next to COSS workshop) – Start in 2015? Help from TAPAS? • Expected outcomes • Help answer strategy questions from patrons (ESA, CNES, NASA, etc.) • E.g. added value of SAR mode • Use some COFS as test-beds for CA products and planned missions (e.g. SWOT) • Review added value of integration of CA data sets in some COFS (e.g. ATOBA); feedback to CA data providers • Investment • No additional work investment or funding (include existing projects) • Anything beyond simple linking would require backing/funding by Patrons • Time + travel/money to attend COSS and CA workshops

45. Nextyear’sactivities (draft) – 3 • Focus Area C (or external link): Linking with the regional and coastal altimetry community • CAW’2014 via C. Dufau • Proposal of 2-day joint COSS/TAPAS workshop (Lisbon?): “Altimetry for Regional/Coastal Ocean Forecasting” • Would complement CAWs (more engineering/data processing-minded).

46. Links with other TTs

47. COSS Links with other TTs • TASK TEAM FOR OBSERVING SYSTEM EVALUATION (OSEVAL-TT) – (1) • TASK TEAM FOR MARINE ECOSYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION (MEAP-TT) – (2) • TASK TEAM FOR DATA ASSIMILATION TECHNIQUES (DAT-TT) TBC – (3)

48. (1) REGIONAL OSSE SYSTEM EXAMPLE: Gulf of Mexico (evaluate airborne profiles) • Impact Assessment: how does the Horizontal Profile Resolution influence SSH? (RMS error) • Assimilate AXCTDs to 1000 m depth • 0.5º vs. 1.0º horizontal resolution • Idealized airborne survey patterns • 0.5º grid (all points) • 1.0º grid (large points only) Decreasing horizontal resolution has a large impact on RMS errors of SSH Higher-resolution profiling corrects variability with small horizontal scales that are not well constrained by satellite altimetry. Deny all synthetic profiles 1.0° resolution 0.5° resolution Halliwell et al. (2014)

49. (2) Biogeochemical prediction in the coastal seas • Uncoupled ecosystem models: • process-oriented studies on biogeochemical cycles, nutrient fluxes and pathways; • understanding of the effects of eutrophication / hypoxia / harmful algal blooms (HABs) • Coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecosystem models: • simulate the biogeochemistry of coastal ecosystems but also advance knowledge on ecosystem functioning • address the response of the marine ecosystems to the variability of physical forcing. • help establish the critical climatological, seasonal and interannual aspects of ecosystem variability • explore alternate states under different management scenarios

50. (3) Coastal Data Assimilation in the coastal seas Specifics of data assimilation in coastal and shelf seas – 1 With respect to large-scale DA: • Usually smaller space scales, faster time scales • Coastal models are free-surface models, frequent inclusion of tides and response to HF atmospheric forcing • NL couplings between physical processes such as coastal mesoscale processes, slope currents, tidal currents, coastal upwellings, internal waves/tides, storm surges, waves, thermohaline circulation, river runoff, … • Presence of open boundaries, need to control them T z