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Joshua Fu 1 , Carey Jang 2 , David Streets 3 , Zuopan Li 1 , Roger Kwok 4 ,

Model Inter-comparison to Evaluate Gaseous Pollutants in East Asia Using an Advanced Modeling System: Models-3/CMAQ System 2007 CMAS Conference Chapel Hill, NC October 3, 2007. Joshua Fu 1 , Carey Jang 2 , David Streets 3 , Zuopan Li 1 , Roger Kwok 4 , Rokjin Park 5,6 , Zhiwei Han 7

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Joshua Fu 1 , Carey Jang 2 , David Streets 3 , Zuopan Li 1 , Roger Kwok 4 ,

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  1. Model Inter-comparison to Evaluate Gaseous Pollutants in East Asia Using an Advanced Modeling System: Models-3/CMAQ System2007 CMAS ConferenceChapel Hill, NCOctober 3, 2007 Joshua Fu1, Carey Jang2, David Streets3, Zuopan Li1, Roger Kwok4, Rokjin Park5,6, Zhiwei Han7 1University of Tennessee, USA 2U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, USA 3Argonne National Laboratory, USA 4Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, HK 5Soul Seoul National University, Korea 6Harvard University, China 7Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

  2. Outlines • MICS-Asia: • In order to have a common understanding of model performance and uncertainties in Asia • Phase I (1998-2000): long-range transport and deposition of sulfur • Phase II (2003-2006): transport and deposition of sulfur, nitrogen compounds, ozone and aerosols in East Asia.Eight models participated in the Phase-II study. • Our participation • Phase II Study • GEOS-Chem and CMAQ • Summary

  3. Domain of MICS-Asia Phase II

  4. Domain of MICS-Asia Phase II G. Carmichael et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

  5. Overview of the Models in the MICS-II study Grid number Grid size Met. fields Boundary data Chemical Mech. Dry dep. Wet dep. M-1 145x195 45km MM5/NCEP MOZART-II CIT mechanismWesely (1989) Seinfeld (1986) M-2 143x133 40.5km MM5/ECMWF MOZART-II CB-IVWesely (1989) RADM M-3 110x60 0.5deg MM5/GANAL* MOZART-II Condensed CB-IV Wesely (1989) RADM M-4 110x60 0.5deg MM5/NCEP MOZART-II Simplified CB-IV Wesely (1989) Henry’s Law M-5 90x60 0.5deg RAMS/ECMF Original SAPRC 99 Wesely (1989) Fixed rate M-6 166x134 0.5deg ECMWF MOZART-II Simpson Engardt (2000) Berge et al. (1993) M-7 166x144 45km MM5/GANAL* MOZART-II CB-IV Wesely (1989) RADM M-8 121x61 45km MM5/GANAL* MOZART-II RACM Wesely (1989) Sportisse and DuBoi (2002) M-9 164x97 36km MM5/NCEP GEOS-Chem CB-IV Wesely (1989) RADM * GANAL: Global objective ANALysis data developed by Japan Meteorological Agency G. Carmichael et al. and Han et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

  6. Periods    Four periods are selected as follows:      Period 1: March 1 to 31 in 2001,Period 2: July 1 to 31 in 2001,      Period 3: December 1 to 31 in 2001,      Period 4: March 1 to 31 in 2002. Overview of the Models in the MICS-II study MICS-Asia II

  7. East Asia Modeling Configuration • Features : Models-3/CMAQ One-Atmosphere (multi-pollutants) Modeling • July 2001 • Asia CMAQ Domains • Model Setup : • NASA’s TRACE-P converted to CB-IV emissions and GEIA biogenic emission inventory • Emissions Processing: Spatial allocation (GIS/Gridding), Temporal, speciation needed for the M3/CMAQ simulations • 36-km, 14 vertical layers • Meteorology : MM5 V3.7 • CMAQ V4.4 • IC/BC: GEOS-Chem • Photolysis:TOMS data

  8. Models-3/CMAQ Study Domains 4-km 12-km 36-km

  9. Overview of Modeling Results in Asia Comparison of model-derived and observed monthly mean concentrations of SO2, NO2 and O3 at EANET sites in July 2001 (green open circle denotes model results, grey bar means observations) Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

  10. Overview of Modeling Results in Asia Observed and modeled O3 vertical profiles at 4 stations in Japan for July 2001. x-axis, O3 concentration (ppbv); y-axis, altitude (km); black solid line denotes observation, from averaging over available profiles in July for each site, grey solid line means corresponding prediction. Left to right: Sapporo, Tetano, Kagoshima, Naha Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

  11. Statistics is derived by comparing with O3 sounding data at 4 sites in Japan in July 2001. In total, 14 observed profiles at 06:00 UTC are used for comparison Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ .

  12. Overview of Modeling Results in Asia Model derived monthly mean ground-level O3 distribution (ppb) in July 2001 (The last small figure without ID number) Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

  13. Overview of Modeling Results in Asia Time series of model-derived and observed O3 daily mean concentration at Sado site in July 2001 (Bright coarser green line; M-1: pink line; M-2: dark green line; M-3: blue line; M-4: light blue line; M-5: no data in July; M-6: brown line; M-7: orange line; M-8: red line) Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

  14. Overview of Modeling Results in Asia Statistics regarding daily mean concentrations in July 2001 to EANET sites Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

  15. Overview of Modeling Results in Asia Statistics regarding monthly mean concentrations in July 2001 to EANET sites Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

  16. Statistics for comparison of O3vertical profiles in terms of different altitude regions (unit: ppbv) Han et al. (2007), AE R 0.73 0.82 0.68 0.77 0.72 M9 MBE 2.54 -3.5 -19.8 -1.3 -7.1 RMSE 17.17 12.68 27.03 14.48 19.27 Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

  17. Beijing Map (on-going)

  18. Pollutants transport Impacts in Beijing region O3 PM2.5

  19. Ozone Modeling Results in Hong Kong and Taiwan Time series of modeled and observed daily mean O3 concentrations at Hong Kong and Taiwan

  20. Summary • The successful application using “One Atmosphere” CMAQ modeling system with GEOS-Chem model for East Asia regional air quality modeling • Emissions: Convert Trace-P Asian emissions to CB-IV emissions, especially VOC emissions, e.g., ALD2, OLE, PAR. • The use of EANET monitoring data is to against CMAQ modeling results (O3, NO2, SO2) in East Asia • Statistics of both monthly and daily means show that the model skill is very well in reproducing O3 and SO2 with small to moderate RMSE. • The model species capture the day-to-day and spatial variability of the observations. • Vertical O3 profiles at 4 ozonesonde sites are well predicted in July 2001 . • Our model is among the best of those MICS-II models within the 2-km surface layer. • Compared to SO2 and O3, the NO2 gas concentrations are simulated less well, but the correlation coefficient is still significant. • Our spatial distributions of O3 shows a high concentration patch covering Beijing, a moderate to high pattern across Korea and Japan Sea, and a low but extensive pattern enclosing southern China, Taiwan and East Sea.

  21. Next Step • Investigate PM2.5 and acid deposition resulting from the same model runs • Use the recent version of Models-3/CMAQ • Next MICS –2005 ? Scenarios depend on observation data available.

  22. Acknowledgment • USEPA ICAP and STAR funding support • University of Tennessee Office of Research • Argonne National Laboratory/University of Iowa • Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

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