Introduction

1. Introduction • SEI has been asked by UNDP to create draft baseline data sets for 22 of the countries participating in the LECB programme. • These data sets have been developed within SEI’s LEAP software and are available now for review. • We hope they will serve as a useful foundation for analysis in the LECB programme. • The data sets are only intended as a starting point for analysis. They are based only on readily available and regularly maintained international sources of data. It is expected that local experts can greatly improve on them using local data and local expertise. • In this webinar we will introduce these draft baselines and describe how to get access to LEAP and the data sets. Charlie Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

2. Outline • Introduction • Key data sources • Data structure • Key calculations: historical (1990-2009) and baseline (2010-2040) • A brief introduction to LEAP • Getting access to LEAP and the draft baseline data sets • Templates for mitigation analysis Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

3. Key Data Sources • Macroeconomic and Demographic Data • Population for UN Population Prospects (UN, 2010) • GDP (MER &PPP) & Sectoral Value Added from World Development Indicators (World Bank, 2012) • Energy Data • Energy statistics from IEA World Energy Balances, 2011 • Includes data on consumption, conversion, primary production, imports & exports, statistical differences and stock changes. • For some countries, data on fossil fuel reserves from World Energy Council (WEC) • Emissions Data • Energy sector emission factors from IPCC Tier 1 (1996) • Non-energy sector emissions from EDGAR v4.1 (PBL, 2011) Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

4. Data Structures – 1. Energy • Energy Demand • Households • Services • Agricultural & Fishing Energy Use • Industrial Energy Use(Broken down into 13 subsectors where data available: iron & steel, chemicals, etc.) • Transport(broken down by mode where data available: road, rail, aviation, shipping, pipelines) • Non-energy Fuel Use (e.g. feedstocks for production of chemicals) • Statistical Differences • Energy Conversion • Distribution Losses • Own Use • Heat Production • CHP • Electric Generation • Oil Refining • (Only in relevant countries – omits some sectors such as gas works, charcoal making) • Primary Production • Indigenous production • Imports & Exports (negative) • Stock changes Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

5. Data Structures: 2. Non-Energy • Taken directly from non-energy sector emissions from PBL’s EDGAR Database (v4.1) • Disaggregated by sector and subsector and by each individual pollutant (CO2, CH4, N2O, halocarbons, SF6, etc.) • Note error in LEAP data sets: double counting of emissions from production of minerals (Need to erase branch “Production of Minerals 2A”) • Industrial Processes • Cement and lime production (CO2 from chemical reaction), Halocarbons and SF6, etc. • Solvents and Products • Paint, degreasing & chemicals. • Agriculture • Mainly CH4 from enteric fermentation, manure management, rice cultivation, ag. waste burning, direct soil emissions, etc. • LUCF • Forest fires, grassland fires, forest fire post-burn decay • Waste • Includes CH4 from solid waste disposal and wastewater handling and waste incineration (potential for double counting with energy sector). • Other Energy • Fugitive emissions not accounted for in energy sector calculations • Other Non Energy • Fossil fuel fires, indirect N2O from agriculture, etc. Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

6. Key Calculations1. Historical Data (“Current Accounts”): 1990-2009 • Energy Demand • Historical energy intensities (EI) calculated by sector using IEA energy data (E) and activity level data (AL). EI = E /AL • Activity levels set to population (household sector), value added (services, industry and agriculture), total GDP (industry and non-energy fuel use) • Historical tends in fuel shares within each sector (subsectors for industry, modes for transport), calculated directly from IEA energy statistics. • GHG Emissions (P) are the product of energy use (E) and IPCC Tier 1 emission factors (EF) for each pollutant. P = E x EF • Energy Supply (“Transformation” in LEAP) • Simple model of how supply sector attempts to meet demand calculated above. • Major sectors (transmission & distribution, electric generation, heat production, CHP, oil refining modeled accounted for in terms of the historical efficiencies and shares of each key technology/feedstock fuel). • Supply-side GHG emissions modeled with IPCC Tier 1 emission factors. • Non-Energy Sector GHGs • No calculations – taken directly from EDGAR database.

7. Key Calculations2. Baseline Projections (2010-2040) Summary: changes in baseline emissions due to growth in populations and GDP, structural shifts in economies, and trends in energy intensities and fuel switching. • Energy Demand: Activity Levels • GDP projected using regional (not national) growth rates from U.S. EIA International Energy Outlook 2011. • Population projected using UN Population prospects 2010. • Value added shares projected based on historical trends since 1995. • Energy Demand: Intensities and Fuel Shares • Sectoral energy intensities projected based on historical trends since 1995. • Fuel shares projected based on historical trends since 1995. • GHG emission factors remain constant. • Energy Supply (“Transformation” in LEAP) • Electric generation mix projected based on historical trends since 1995. • Electric generation efficiency projected based on historical trends since 1995. • Fuel mix and efficiency in all other sectors assumed to remain constant. • GHG emission factors remain constant • Imports and exports assumed constant after 2009. • Non-Energy Sector GHGs • Assumed to remain constant. Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

8. References and Links • European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). 2010. Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), release version 4.1. http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu • International Energy Agency, 2011. World Energy Balances. OECD/IEA, Paris, France. • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1996. Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Volume 3: Reference Manual.http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs1.html • United States Energy Information Administration. 2011. International Energy Outlook 2011. Washington, DC. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/ • United Nations. 2010. Word Population Prospects 2010 Revision. United Nations. New York, USA. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm • World Energy Council. 2007. Survey of Energy Resources 2007. WEC. London. http://www.worldenergy.org/documents/ser2007_final_online_version_1.pdf • World Bank. World Development Indicators 2012. World Bank. , Washington DC, USA. http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

9. Key Characteristics • Easy-to-use scenario-based modeling software for energy planning and GHG mitigation assessment. • Broad scope: demand, transformation, resource extraction, GHG & local air pollutants emissions, social cost-benefit analysis, non-energy sector sources and sinks. • Not a model of a particular energy system: a tool for modeling different energy systems. • Support for multiple methodologies such as transport stock-turnover modeling, electric sector load forecasting and capacity expansion, econometric and simulation models. • Low initial data requirements: most aspects optional. • Links to MS-Office (Excel, Word and PowerPoint). • Local (cities, states), national, regional and global applicability. • Medium to long-term time frame, annual time-step, unlimited number of years. • Download from: www.energycommunity.org/download Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

10. LEAP Structure & Calculation Flows Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

11. Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

12. The Tree • The main data structure used for organizing data and models, and reviewing results • Icons indicate types of data (e.g., categories, technologies, fuels, key assumptions and pollution effects) • User can edit data structure. • Supports standard editing functions (copying, pasting, drag & drop of groups of branches) Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

13. Modeling at Two levels • Basic non controversial physical accounting calculations handled internally within software (stock turnover, energy demand and supply, electric dispatch and capacity expansion, resource requirements, costing, pollutant emissions, etc.). • Additional modeling can be added by the user (e.g. user might specify market penetration as a function of prices, income level and policy variables). • Users can specify spreadsheet-like expressions that define data and models, describing how variables change over time in scenarios: • Expressions can range from simple numeric values to complex mathematical formulae. Each can make use of • math functions, • values of other variables, • functions for specifying how a variable changes over time, or • links to external spreadsheets. Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

14. Getting LEAP and The Baseline Country Data Sets • Download LEAP, here: www.energycommunity.org/download • Install LEAP by running the downloaded file setup.exe • We recommend that you fully enable LEAP by registering it, here: www.energycommunity.org/register • LEAP available at no charge to those participating in LECB Project . Make sure you request a free license and note you are part of LECB project. • Download country data sets and reports from: ftp://forums.seib.org/LECB/LEAPAreas • Data sets are single “.leap” data files. Double-click a “.leap” data file to install it into LEAP. • Explore results for a country by going to the Results view and choosing among the saved “Favorite” charts. Favorite charts correspond to those in each country report. Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

15. LEAP Demonstration • At this point in the webinar we will switch to a live demonstration of LEAP • Showing its basic features • Exploring some of the country data sets • Showing some of their results using the “Favorite Charts” menu option • Showing how the results in LEAP are derive from a combination of its built-in calculations and the way its data and expressions are entered. Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org

16. Templates for Mitigation • Each country data set includes a suggested branch structure template (but currently no data) for carrying out mitigation assessments. • We hope this will serve as a useful default for organizing analyses, but feel free to adapt or change in your own mitigation assessments. • The template is implemented as a set of branches in LEAP's Tree Structure. Look for groups of branches labeled "Polices and Measures" at the same level as the Baseline branches within each sector. • Under each set of P&M branches you will find sets of branches dealing with types of policies and measures relevant to each sector. Under each category, enter the energy to be saved from each P&M. Typically you will enter energy savings as negative values representing the energy avoided by the measure. Charles Heapscharlie.heaps@sei-us.org