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Learn about forecasting room availability, overbooking dilemma, jargon specific to reservations, and practical models. Understand automated inventory tracking and how to handle cancellations and early departures.
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Learning Objectives • Understand the various decisions facing a reservations manager with regard to forecasting the number of rooms available for sale. • Understand and discuss the overbooking dilemma. • Define and utilize basic vocabulary terms and industry jargon specific to forecasting availability and overbooking reservations. • The ability to develop a practical working model of both a simple, unadjusted room count and an adjusted room count. • Understand deterrents for cancellations and early departures.
Forecasting Available Rooms (1 of 8) • Automated Inventory Tracking Systems • Computer updates reservations in real time • Shows projections a week at a time • Shows today's arrivals by name, room type, group affiliation, other codes • Shows reservations by quality • Shows room availability by room type and status
Automated Inventory Tracking Systems - Example of A One-Day Rooms Inventory
Forecasting Available Rooms (2 of 8) • Room counts are done for each day in advance. • Less accurate as we look further ahead • Tables next slides • Done many times a day for today. • 6 AM, 11AM, before and after 4/6 PM
Forecasting Available Rooms (4 of 8) • Committed Rooms= (Yesterdays stayovers + today's reserved arrivals) • Out of Order (OOO) Rooms = Rooms temporarily unavailable due to fixable problems • Can be fixed quickly if absolutely essential • Can be sold at a discount un-fixed, with disclosure • Out of Inventory (OOI) Rooms = Rooms unavailable long-term due to non-fixable problems • Cannot be sold today due to unacceptable condition • Exhibit 4-5 for inventory calculation issues
Forecasting Available Rooms (6 of 8) • Stayover - Continuing guest, as per booking • Understay– Guest who leave earlier than expected • Overstay - Guest who stays longer than booked • No show - Guest with confirmed/guaranteed booking who does not arrive, but has not cancelled • Cancellations - provides the opportunity to resell • Early Arrivals - Guest who arrive day/s before booking • Adjusting Toda’s Reservations • The Adjusted Result • Periodic Recounts • Adjusting by Reservation Quality
Forecasting Available Rooms (7 of 8) –Simple & Unadjusted Room Count
Overbooking (1 of 8) • Overbooking - More bookings than rooms! • Done deliberately for number of reasons • Some guests will be no-shows • Last minute change of plans • Some guests deliberately make multiple bookings • Some guests will be early departures • Some guests will be last minute cancellations • Too late to fill these last-minute empty rooms • So hotels overbook to protect itself from revenue loss • Done with historical statistics as guide • The Perfect Fill?
Overbooking (3 of 8) • Reservations as legal contracts. • Courts say that reservations are legal contracts. • However, not worthwhile for individuals to sue. • Meeting planners have sued and won! • Threat of Legislation. • State Legislation • Whose Fault?
Overbooking (4 of 8) • Overbooking Policies • Hotel overbooking solutions. • Check nearby hotels for room availability. • “Walk” overbooked guest to another property. • Chains do it within chain • Watch for unethical FO Clerks who do it for money! • Pay for taxi, phone call, comparable room. • Air-taxi in the Bahamas! • Apologize with gift, etc.
Overbooking (6 of 8) • Overbooking and antiservice syndrome • Industry should police itself, or congress will pass laws! • Airlines are regulated by law - ask for volunteers and give them money and free tickets • Problem is due to few hotels with poor service • No-Show Policies • Cancellation Policies
Overbooking (8 of 8) • Minimizing the Overbooking Problem. • Increasingly Restrictive Policies. • Early Departure Fees • Third Party Guarantees. • Trip Insurance • Credit Card Disputes • Travel Agent Guarantees • Advance Deposit Reservations.
