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The Future of US Foreign Policy

The Future of US Foreign Policy. A combination of 2 different traditions guiding US FP. The realist tradition : S tate interests and the relative power of states in anarchic al international system .

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The Future of US Foreign Policy

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  1. TheFuture of US ForeignPolicy

  2. Acombination of2 differenttraditionsguidingUS FP • The realist tradition: State interests and the relative power of states in anarchical internationalsystem. • Influence of domestic policy (Primat der Innenpolitik): Not just as domestic political agendas and ambitions, but the constitutional , political, economic, social , ideological structures of the domestic political order.

  3. Contours of US FP (regardless of therulingparty) • Constraints/imperatives stemming from US external interests: BoP, the extent of Americanpower (absoluteterms +capabilitytomobilize domestically behind a given objective). • Domestic establishment: Class interests, domestic pressures on key issues, and nationalist and imperial ideology.

  4. Mismatch of AmericanAmbitions vs. Power • Political elites/public opinion for the US to play a hegemonic role on the world stage (Americanambition) • As individuals, not personallyto pay orfighttomaintainthisAmerican role. (Americanpower)

  5. Factorsseveringthemismatch • The Rise of Rivals (i.e.China, Russia , Iran,etc.) • Sharpening geopolitical completion over access to hydrocarbons at a time of heightened concerns about global warming.

  6. DomesticRestraintstoredrawpriorities : The ideological roots of US foreign policy • Do not believe that they have or should have an empire. • A sense of mission to bring democracy,freedom, and progress is rooted in culture , and deeply entwined with American civic nationalism. • Widespread sense of theinnategoodness of American’sactions in theworld. • A key link between the ideological bases of American civic nationalism ( based on general belief in the values of what has been called ' the American Creed' ) and American imperialism.

  7. " All nations...have long agreed that they are chosen peoples, the idea of special destiny is as old as nationalism itself. However, no nation in modern history has been quite so consistently dominated as the US by the belief that it has a particular mission in the world." (R.Nye,1966).

  8. TheOpening Statement of NSS 2006 " The US must defend liberty and justice because these principles are right and true for all people everywhere. These nonnegotiable demands of human dignity are protected most securely in democracies. The US Government will work to advance human dignity in word and deed, speaking out for freedom and against violations of human rights and allocating appropriate resources to advance these ideals...To protect our Nation and honor our values, the US seeks to extend freedom across the globe by leading an international effort to end tyranny and to promote effective democracy."

  9. “ It is possible to speak of a body of political ideas that constitutes 'Americanism' in a sense which one can never speak of 'Britishism','Frenchism', 'Germanism' or 'Japanesism'.Americanism in this sense is comparable to other ideologies or religions…To reject thecentral ideas of that doctrine is to be unAmerican…This identification of nationality with political Creed or values makes the United States virtually unique.” (Huntington 1981:2-3)

  10. Implications of thisideologicalconformity on US FP (Bacevich , 2002) • Difficultytoquestionwhetherthe US actuallyneedstoremainthe sole global superpowerwithallthosecosts. • Difficulty of proposingresonablecompromiseswithlocalgreatpowers. (duetothe risk of presented as ‘betraying’ Americanvalues)

  11. (Absolute) Strenghts of the US • TheWorld’sLargestEconomy • GreatestMilitaryPower.

  12. Weakness of the US : TheTwinQuestions • How tobringthat (absolute) strenghttobear on particularissue ? • How topersuadetheAmericanpoliticalclasses/populationto mobilize thatstrenghtfor FP goals ?

  13. ‘Congresswillnot pay muchanylongertobuildupcountrieslike Pakistan whichmayemerge as economiccompetitors of the US in particularfields, as South KoreaandTaiwandidduringtheColdWar. Theywillpay forthemilitary, not onlybecause of securityparanoiaortheallure of military ‘pork’ fortheirownstates, but becausemorebroadlythe US militarybudgetserves as somethingthat, accordingtoitsfree market ideology, the US does not havestate-subsizedindustrialdevelopment, heavilyslatedtowardshightechnology.’ ( Lieven,p.439)

  14. ‘ …For a long-time tocomethebasiccontours of US foreignpolicywillremainthesame, underbothRepublicanandDemocraticadministrations…For US ForeignPolicytochangeradicallywouldrequirea revolutionaryshiftin the US domesticpoliticalandeconomicsystems, theinternationalbalance of power,ormostlikelybothsimultaneoursly.’ (Lieven,p.441).

  15. Sowhichgrandstrategyvisionshouldthe US pursue in the 21st century ? Neo-Isolationistorprimacy

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