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Christian Azar

Climate change and the future of energy. Christian Azar. Chalmers University of Technology. THE SCIENCE. Carbon dioxide. CO 2 ppm. Radiative forcing Wm -2. 1.5. 360. 340. 1.0. 320. 0.5. 300. 280. 0. 260. 1000. 1200. 1400. 1600. 1800. 2000.

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Christian Azar

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  1. Climate change and the future of energy Christian Azar Chalmers University of Technology

  2. THE SCIENCE

  3. Carbon dioxide CO2 ppm Radiative forcing Wm-2 1.5 360 340 1.0 320 0.5 300 280 0 260 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

  4. The climate has already started to change

  5. Impacts • Temperature increase Source: IPCC FAR (2007)

  6. Impacts • Sea level rise (0.2-0.6 meter by the year 2100) • Thermal expansion of oceans • Melting glaciers • Possible long-term concern: Greenland and Western Antarctic ice sheets

  7. Impacts • Temperature increase • Sea level rise • More intense precipitation • Droughts • Biodiversity • Positive impacts • A lot of uncertainty remains Flooding, Assam, India, July 2004

  8. THE CHALLENGE

  9. Global greenhouse gas emissions (2000) Source:Stern report 2006

  10. Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels Source: CDIAC

  11. 6 USA 5 Canada, N.Z., Australia 4 3 Russia CO2 emissions (tonC/capita) Japan W.Europe 2 E.Europe Middle East 1 L.America China Other Asia India Africa 0 6000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Population (million) Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels (per capita 2002) Data from 2002. Sources: FAO, CDIAC

  12. SOME SOLUTIONS

  13. Options to reduce CO2 emissions from the energy system Use less energy Use other forms of energy Capture and store carbon

  14. Energy efficiency – half of the solution! Plug-in hybrids Energy-efficient houses Energy efficient lamps Co-generation

  15. Rapid growth in wind power GW 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1990 2000

  16. Rapid growth in wind power GW 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1990 2000

  17. Fuel use in Swedish district heating

  18. Biomass – a complex form of energy PROMISING FORMS: - Sugar cane ethanol - Woody biomass for heat and co-generation LESS PROMISING - Wheat ethanol - RME from rapeseed (area intensive, expensive, often associated with high GHG emissions) RISKS & OPPORTUNITIES Higher food prices Sensitive ecosystems

  19. Millons of hectares of biomass – dream eller nightmare? 500 Mha of energy plantations? Sweden 45 Mha Russia 1708 Mha 507 Mha 1960 Mha Biomass plantations 957 Mha 317 Mha 1787 Mha 3031 Mha 769 Mha

  20. Future role of nuclear power?

  21. Carbon storage possibilities 130 – 500 Gton C Enhanced oil recovery with structural traps 20 – 65 Gton C 30 – 650 Gton C Herzog et alScientific American, February2000. Grimston et al (2001).

  22. Biomassenergy CO2 CO2 Wood Power

  23. Biomassenergywith carboncapture and storage CO2 CO2 Wood Power

  24. 10,000 times more energy from the sun The small squares show the area of solar cells required to power and fuel the world

  25. Energy scenario towards 350 ppmv EJ/yr 800 700 nuclear 600 coal w capt. 500 gas w capt. 400 coal solar H2 300 solar electr. oil solar heat wind 200 hydro bio w capt. gas 100 biomass 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Azar et al, Climatic Change (2006)

  26. The cost to stabilise the atmosphere (I) Azar & Schneider, 2002. Ecological Economics

  27. The cost to stabilise the atmosphere (II) Global GDP Trillion USD/yr 250 200 Bau 150 350 ppm 450 ppm 100 550 ppm 50 0 90 2000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2100 Year Source Azar & Schneider, 2002. Ecological Economics

  28. CLIMATE POLICY

  29. Policy measures are needed • Carbon price (tax or cap-and-trade system) • It is the cap not the trade that reduces emissions • Energy efficiency standards • Support to advanced technologies • R&D • Market diffusion programmes

  30. International negotiations • UNFCCC 1992 • Kyoto protocol 1997 • Bali action plan 2007 • Copenhagen meeting in December 2009: • Capping emissions in ”developed countries”, • Emission reductions in ”developing countries”, • Financing adaptation, • Mechanisms to reduce deforestation

  31. Conclusions • Tough challenge • Technically feasible… (aviation and meat consumption possible exemptions) • Economically feasible… • But trends go in the wrong direction • Policy measures needed, but is there enough political will? • Points for discussions: • Which role for Indonesia?

  32. How do we best protect sensitive ecosystems • and rural poor who lack formal property rights to their land? • Certificate systems? • Import taxes? • No biomass?

  33. Nuclear energy and nuclear weapons • POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS? • Only those countries that already have enrichment and reprocessing plants should be allowed to have it? • The entire fuel cycle under multinational control? • New reactor designs? • POSSIBLE CONCLUSIONS • Nuclear energy is clearly not the only pathway to nuclear weapons • But under current frameworks a world wide effort to expand nuclear energy is hardly attractive

  34. Civilian nuclear fuel cycle Natural Uranium 0,7% U235, 99,3% U238 Enrichment Ca 4% U235, 96% U238 Reactor U235 is fissioned, Pu + fission products are produced Separation of plutonium Final disposal Reprocessing

  35. Links to nuclear weapons Natural Uranium 0,7% U235, 99,3% U238 Enrichment Ca 4% U235, 96% U238 90% U235 Nuclear bombs Highly enriched uranium or plutonium Reactor U235 is fissioned, Pu + fission products are produced Separation of plutonium Final disposal Reprocessing

  36. Nuclear weapons a broader perspective • More than 26 000 nuclear weapons, total yield corresponds to 200 000 hiroshima bombs • 2000 on hair-trigger alert (15-30 minute notice) • NPT aims at preventing proliferation. Further, weapons states should strive towards ”complete disarmament” (article VI). • Can England require that Iran cease with its enrichment program while they at the same time plan to modernise their own weapons capacity?

  37. CO2-concentration and temperature

  38. Nuclear energy and weapons • Technological risks • Enrichment facility (dual use) • Reprocessing (dual use) • Nuclear reactor produces around 200 kg Pu/year • International policy and security analysis • Sweden, Finland etc no ambition to get weapons, • USA, China, etc already have • Which countries should have the right to have advanced civilian nuclear energy programmes? Development of NPT? • Benevolent regimes might become aggressive, and vice versa. • More nuclear for Sweden and the US build more nuclear? • Which signal do we want to send? • The bigger nuclear industry, the stronger lobbying against other countries (think of France and Sarkozy)

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