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Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004. Air Resource Specialists, Inc. Regional Analysis. AoH Phase I intended to make assessments that cover broad regions Many Methods of approaching regional/cluster analysis

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Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

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  1. Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH AnalysisAoH Meeting, Salt Lake CitySeptember 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

  2. Regional Analysis • AoH Phase I intended to make assessments that cover broad regions • Many Methods of approaching regional/cluster analysis • Similar aerosol composition • Similar emissions source regions/categories • Similar geography • Similar meteorology

  3. Regional Clusters on COHA Website COHA: http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/trajgallery/trajmapgallery.html

  4. IMPROVE Particulate Monitoring Cluster Criteria • All Class I areas within 100 km of a current site • Site location lies between highest and lowest elevations of all areas in cluster • 156 Class I areas combined into 108 clusters

  5. IMPROVE Sites Class I Areas IMPROVE Clusters

  6. Possible Expansion of IMPROVE Clusters • Look at CMAQ-TSSA results and group sites that are basically influenced by the same sources • Look at trajectories of the 20% worst visibility days and group sites with similar patterns • Look at monitoring results

  7. IMPROVE Sites Class I Areas Possible Expansion of IMPROVE Clusters

  8. Monitoring Results • July and January, 2002 preliminary results presented at July, 2004 AoH meeting • 1st look at site groupings: • July • 20% worst modeled extinction days • NOx

  9. Rocky Mountain National Park CMAQ-TSSA NOx

  10. Mount Zirkel WA CMAQ-TSSA NOx

  11. White River WA CMAQ-TSSA NOx

  12. Trajectory Analysis • HYSPLIT calculated back trajectories matching July 2002 days from modeled data Model ParameterValue Trajectory duration 72 hours (3 days) Top of model domain 14,000 meters Vertical motion option used model data Receptor height 500 meters • EDAS meteorological data was used for trajectories Note: CMAQ modeled data uses MM5 meteorological data

  13. ROMO HYSPLIT Back Trajectories July 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

  14. MOZI HYSPLIT Back Trajectories July 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

  15. WHRI HYSPLIT Back Trajectories July 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

  16. ROMO, MOZI, and WHRI Back Trajectories July 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

  17. Monitoring Results • IMPROVE aerosol samplers • 24-hour integrated aerosol sample every 3 days • Analytical results can be characterized by visibility contribution of individual species

  18. ROMO MOZI WHRI IMPROVE Aerosol Extinction Data20% Worst Days1997 - 2002

  19. IMPROVE Sites Class I Areas

  20. Weminuche WACMAQ-TSSA NOx

  21. Great Sand Dunes NPCMAQ-TSSA NOx

  22. WEMI HYSPLIT Back Trajectories July 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

  23. GRSA HYSPLIT Back Trajectories July 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

  24. WEMI and GRSA Back Trajectories July 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

  25. GRSA WEMI IMPROVE Aerosol Extinction Data20% Worst Days1997 - 2002

  26. Mesa Verde NPCMAQ-TSSA NOx

  27. MEVE HYSPLIT Back Trajectories July 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

  28. WEMI, GRSA, and MEVE Back Trajectories July 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

  29. MEVE GRSA WEMI IMPROVE Aerosol Extinction Data20% Worst Days1997 - 2002

  30. Sycamore Canyon Yavapai-Apache Pine Mountain Mazatzal Supersition IMPROVE Sites Class I Areas Similar Approach for Tribal CIAs

  31. Other Tools for Attribution Analysis • DRI residence time maps and trajectory regression analyses • Temporal Resolution of Aerosol Data • Total Extinction • Mass • Worst and best days • Summary of particulate and visibility data, and attributable emissions • What else would be helpful for States and Tribes for Phase I?

  32. Residence Time PlotsBased on 20% Worst and Best Extinction Flat Tops 20% Worst Flat Tops 20% Best Great Sand Dunes 20% Worst Great Sand Dunes 20% Best COHA: http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/trajgallery/trajmapgallery.html

  33. Residence Time Plots – Flat TopsBased on 20% Worst Species Mass Sulfate Nitrate Organic Carbon Elemental Carbon COHA: http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/trajgallery/trajmapgallery.html

  34. Residence Time Plots – Great Sand DunesBased on 20% Worst Species Mass Sulfate Nitrate Organic Carbon Elemental Carbon COHA: http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/trajgallery/trajmapgallery.html

  35. Contribution to Sulfate at Grand Canyon Based on Transport Regression Modeling 2.9% 0.2% 19% 3.1% COHA: DRI AoH presentation July, 2004

  36. 20% Worst Extinction (2002) – Northern CO VIEWS: http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/Web/AnnualSummary/ContourMaps.aspx

  37. 20% Worst Extinction (2002) – Southern CO VIEWS: http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/Web/AnnualSummary/ContourMaps.aspx

  38. 20% Worst Extinction/Mass (2002) Rocky Mountain Mesa Verde Extinction Extinction Amm. Sulfate Amm. Sulfate Amm. Nitrate Amm. Nitrate Organic Mass Organic Mass Elemental Carbon Elemental Carbon VIEWS: http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/Web/AnnualSummary/ContourMaps.aspx

  39. 20% Worst Extinction/Mass (2002) Mount Zirkel Mesa Verde Extinction Extinction Amm. Sulfate Amm. Sulfate Amm. Nitrate Amm. Nitrate Organic Mass Organic Mass Elemental Carbon Elemental Carbon VIEWS: http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/Web/AnnualSummary/ContourMaps.aspx

  40. Avg. Aerosol for ROMO, MOZI and WHRI (ug/m3) Total Emissions for CO,UT and WY (millions tons/year) Average Light Extinction for ROMO, MOZI and WHRI (Mm-1)

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