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Winter 2008/9 Review

Winter 2008/9 Review. Peter Parsons 11 th Feb 2009. National Composite Weather Variable (CWV) and 17 year Seasonal Normal CW (Oct 2008 – Jan 2009). Mean National CWV: October 2008 – Jan 2009. 1996. Demands: October 2008 – Feb 3rd 2009. Demand changes from forecasts (mcm/d)

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Winter 2008/9 Review

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  1. Winter 2008/9 Review Peter Parsons 11th Feb 2009

  2. National Composite Weather Variable (CWV) and17 year Seasonal Normal CW (Oct 2008 – Jan 2009)

  3. Mean National CWV: October 2008 – Jan 2009 1996

  4. Demands: October 2008 – Feb 3rd 2009 Demand changes from forecasts (mcm/d) High IUK exports in January NTS industrials ~3 lower since mid Nov. Power generation typically 10 mcm/d higher Distribution Network demand ~15-20 lower

  5. Generation Mix Gas min 274 GWh/d (~50 mcm/d) max 451 (~83) avg 374 (~69)

  6. UKCS

  7. Norway

  8. Continent IUK forecast up to 20 mcm/d but only at high demands Ukraine dispute

  9. LNG Imports (Grain) Grain II commercially operational 30th December 2008

  10. Storage 340 mcm/d is typical level of non storage supplies

  11. Remaining Storage 2nd February 2009 1st October 2008 SRS MRS LRS

  12. All Supplies

  13. Gas Price GBA reduced to 429 on10th Jan then to 414 on 19th Jan First use of winter storage

  14. Summary • NTS infrastructure has performed well, new investments have enabled high release of capacity through – DRSEC, T&T, Day Ahead & Within Day • Coldest winter to since 1996 • Cold based on recent winters but only moderately cold for long term data set • Demands • NTS industrials & DN demand ~ 20 mcm/d lower • Offset by higher power generation and IUK exports • Supplies • UKCS, Norway & BBL performed well, all at or above forecast • Grain II commissioned late December providing an import source of supply • No Milford Haven (yet) or Aldbrough storage • Significant use of all types of storage • GBA has been modified to reflect depletion of storage and IUK behaviour • Gas Price has been relatively benign • The winter is not over yet!

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