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Hazards Assessment Issued December 28, 2009

January 3-7, 2008 West Coast Rain/Snow Event. 00Z 5 January, 2008. Snowfall in CA mountains of up to 10 feet. Many locations with multiple feet of snow. Localized flooding caused by heavy rains at lower elevations Rainfall amounts 2-10 inches. 3 Weeks Prior to Event.

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Hazards Assessment Issued December 28, 2009

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  1. January 3-7, 2008 West Coast Rain/Snow Event 00Z 5 January, 2008 • Snowfall in CA mountains of up to 10 feet. • Many locations with multiple feet of snow. • Localized flooding caused by heavy rains at lower elevations • Rainfall amounts 2-10 inches. 3 Weeks Prior to Event 6 Days Prior to Event Hazards Assessment Issued December 28, 2009 MJO Update: issued by Climate Prediction Center December 24, 2007 “Some potential exists for a heavy precipitation event tied to tropical convection by week 3 … along the west coast of the US”

  2. 4-5 Day Forecast Verifying Analysis 48-h QPE ending 00Z 6 Jan x 8.78 HPC 48-h QPF ending 00Z 6 JanIssued 00Z 1 JanDay 4-5 Forecast

  3. 4-5 Day Forecast Proposed Action: 9:00 am January 1, 2008 HPC medium range desk (Day 4-7) provides “heads up” to FEMA national HQ of possible extraordinary weather event (very large snowfall/blizzard or rains leading to significant river flooding) Provided only for hazards impacting several states/multiple WFOs/RFCs Event description with attached graphic depiction of hazard including links to NCEP and WFO/RFC products sent via email Followed by telecon or VTC, at FEMA request only 9:00 am January 2 and 3, 2008 Similar contact as forecaster confidence of widespread extraordinary weather event increases Verifying Analysis 48-h QPE ending 00Z 6 Jan x 8.78 HPC 48-h QPF ending 00Z 6 JanIssued 00Z January 1, 2008Day 4-5 Forecast

  4. 1-3 Day Forecast Verifying Analysis 72-h QPE ending 00Z 7 Jan x 10.24 HPC 72-h QPF ending 00Z 7 JanIssued 00Z January 4, 2008Day 1-3 forecast

  5. 1-3 Day Forecast Verifying Analysis 72-h QPE ending 00Z 7 Jan x 10.24 Proposed Action: 9:00 am January 4, 2008 HPC Winter Weather Desk initiates contact to FEMA on a major winter storm. [Possible daily telecon/ VTC on large events (not daily briefings through the winter)] HPC 72-h QPF ending 00Z 7 JanIssued 00Z January 4, 2008Day 1-3 forecast

  6. 3 Day Total Snowfall Forecast 00Z Jan 4 – 00Z Jan 7 Verifying Analysis HPC 72-h PRISM adjusted snow accumulation forecast ending 00Z 7 JanIssued 00Z January 4, 2008 HPC analysis of storm-total snowfall (in.) 3–7 Jan

  7. 3 Day Total Snowfall Forecast 00Z Jan 4 – 00Z Jan 7 Verifying Analysis Proposed Action: 9:00 am January 4,5,6, 2008 HPC provides support to FEMA via information on changes to storm track and intensity (i.e., impacts) via phone or VTC and summary of existing watches/warnings [as preferred by FEMA]. HPC 72-h PRISM adjusted snow accumulation forecast ending 00Z 7 JanIssued 00Z January 4, 2008 HPC analysis of storm-total snowfall (in.) 3–7 Jan

  8. 1 Day Forecast Verifying Analysis 24 h QPE ending 00Z 6 Jan HPC 24-h QPF ending 00Z 6 Jan Issued 00Z January 5, 2008 Day 1 Forecast

  9. January 3-7, 2008 West Coast Rain/Snow Event 00Z 5 January, 2008 Storm-total snowfall (in.) 3–7 Jan

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