Presentation Transcript

1. Integrating Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Observations and Analysis

   James H. Butler Global Monitoring Division NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, CO 17 November 2011
2. Ensuring systematic observations “Time History of atmospheric CO2” 33,887 Viewers as of 10:46 am yesterday (11/15/2011) . . . (38 more by 15:56) www.youtube.com/carbontracker
3. Why this is an urgent issue The primary cause of climate change and ocean acidification is the increase of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, predominantly carbon dioxide Three reasons for having more and better information Climate feedbacks Success of GHG management Ocean Acidification
4. Thawing permafrost has the potential to release huge amounts of CO2 and methane. Half of the CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burning is absorbed by the ocean and biosphere. Will this continue? Climate Feedbacks
5. Greenhouse Gas Management What works? How well does it work?
6. Ocean Acidification Regardless of climate change, the ocean becomes increasingly acidic with rising CO2 in the atmosphere.
7. Why Regional Scale Information? 7 Societies are advancing efforts to reduce CO2 emissions now Mitigation efforts are diverse and vary by nation, region, & emission sector The complexity & variability of the carbon cycle, the scale of problem, and the number of GHGs make tracking these efforts challenging, but surmountable Large-scale emission reduction approaches require independent, scientific monitoring to support verification and policy decisions
8. For Regional Scale Resolution and Lower Uncertainty . . . More Observations (x 10?) Atmosphere Ocean Terrestrial Satellites Improved Instrumentation Improved Modeling to Serve Smaller Footprints Transport (÷ 10?) Assimilation, Inversion, Diagnosis Prediction Enhanced Computing Capacity QA/QC, Data Management
9. One “Systems Approach” “Carbon Weather” January (net CO2emission) CarbonTracker™ Long-term Observations July (net CO2 uptake)
10. Earth Networks Satellites “Carbon Weather” CarbonTracker™ TCCON Current Network
11. Summary of Carbon and GHG Events (Late 2010 through 2011 ) WMO Internal Activities WMO Congress GAW/GHG Meeting of Experts -- Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Greenhouse Gases WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletins Activities involving Other International Organizations and Programs BIPM-CCQM Meeting in Boulder GCOS Steering Committee Meeting GCOS AOPC meeting GEO-Carbon IAGOS CEOS & Satellites Multilateral National Activities Carbo-NA Meeting in Mexico All scientists meeting US-India US-China Activities and Issues for Individual Nations Australia Canada USA China Engagement with the Private Sector Instrument Manufacturers Picarro The other laser Southwest Industries Earth Networks Commercial Airlines Lufthansa JAL China Air and others Assessments Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Integrating Carbon & GHG Management JH Butler, NOAA
12. WMO Congress Side Event on GHGs Featured observations and modeling Focused on coordinating efforts Included private partners Engaged the satellite community Very well attended – filled the room Integrating Carbon & GHG Management JH Butler, NOAA
13. WMO/GAW Internal Activities WMO/IAEA Meeting of Experts on Greenhouse Gases and Tracers Update pending WMO/GAW Scientific Advisory Group for Greenhouse Gases (SAG-GG) Update pending WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletins Annual reports released in November of each year Sixth report (2010) focused on recent upward trends in methane Seventh report coming soon and will highlight N2O Integrating Carbon & GHG Management JH Butler, NOAA
14. Events Involving Other International Organizations BIPM CCQM Meeting Jointly held in Boulder, CO First CCQM meeting following signing of the BIPM-WMO Mutual Recognition Arrangement in 2010 First meeting engaging WMO’s CCL in metrology discussions Confirmed role of WMO in ensuring compatibility of world-wide GHG measurements Final report pending Integrating Carbon & GHG Management JH Butler, NOAA
15. Events Involving Other International Organizations (cont’d) GCOS Steering Committee Meeting Held in Reading, UK Defined and adopted WMO/GAW CO2 and CH4 in situ surface measurement network as a GCOS Baseline Observing Network Distinct from satellite and other remote sensing contributions to WMO/GAW World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases (WDC-GG) Used for computing global averages, trends, and hemispheric distributions Adopted WMO/GAW networks for N2O Comprehensive Network Baseline Network Integrating Carbon & GHG Management JH Butler, NOAA
16. Events Involving Other International Organizations (cont’d) GEO-Carbon Integration of measurements and models to understand the global carbon cycle Includes atmosphere, terrestrial systems, oceanic contributions Coordinates globally Global Carbon Project Carbo-Europe, ICOS WMO/GAW USGCRP Carbon Cycle Science Program Integrating Carbon & GHG Management JH Butler, NOAA
17. “New” Players for Observations IAGOS Builds on efforts from MOSAIC (Euro airlines), CARIBIC (Lufthansa), and CONTRAIL (Japan Airlines) Fourth package approved for CO2 and CH4 on commercial aircraft Operational, but not much funding for instrument construction Many airlines are interested in participating Earth Networks Investing $25M over 5 years to enhance global network with ~100 sites Enhancement of ~40% over existing network Committed to high quality positions Business Plan? Satellites (Existing and *Forthcoming) AIRS/IASI (passive, mid-tropospheric sensors) SCHIAMACHY (passive sensor) GOSAT (passive sensor, large footprint) *OCO-2 (passive sensor, small footprint) *ASCENDS (active laser) Integrating Carbon & GHG Management JH Butler, NOAA
18. Opportunities Observing sensors Observing Systems Coordinating modeling efforts Int’l cooperation New analytical techniques Novel Sampling Integrated Obs Networks Private Networks Integrated Obs, Analysis, Science Integrating Carbon & GHG Management JH Butler, NOAA
19. Earth Networks Satellites “Carbon Weather” CarbonTracker™ TCCON Current Network
20. Methane increase in the atmosphere Methane Increasing in the atmosphere Will it continue? Why or why not? Need for prediction Need for more observations Need for higher resolution modeling Integrating Carbon & GHG Management JH Butler, NOAA
21. Alert Behchoko Lac Labiche Estevan Pt. Chibougamau E. Trout Lake Esther Bratt’s Lake Fraserdale Sable Island EC Continental scale GHG sites EC Regional scale GHG sites CARE Egbert Greenhouse Gases Observations NetworkClimate Research Division, ASTD
22. Greenhouse Gases Observations NetworkClimate Research Division, ASTD Ongoing long term systematic observations of atmospheric GHG concentrations to track influence of Canadian and international sources and sinks Improved knowledge and understanding of greenhouse gases and carbon sources/sinks as climate forcing agents. Carbon Dioxide Methane