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The Hungarian debt management during the EU enlargement process

This article explores the Hungarian debt management and economic convergence process during the EU enlargement, focusing on inflation, budget deficit, debt/GDP ratio, and market development. It discusses the challenges faced by Hungary in meeting Maastricht criteria and achieving early EMU membership. The article also highlights the market harmonization efforts and the development of a competitive and efficient government bond market.

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The Hungarian debt management during the EU enlargement process

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  1. The Hungarian debt management during the EU enlargement process András Réz General ManagerÁKK Rt.

  2. Economic and Financial Convergence Inflation Budget deficit Debt/GDP Convergence of long-term rates Market development Market harmonisation

  3. Inflation

  4. Budget Deficit as Percentage of GDP The 2002 figure excludes one-off items related to the introduction of the ESA95

  5. Debt level below 60% and the share of marketable debt increased

  6. Convergence of Long-term Rates

  7. Convergence process steady until 2002 Large FX and debt market fluctuations in 2003 – short and 10y spreads increased Macroeconomic figures are not good Government economic policy targets meeting maastricht criteria and early EMU membership Economic and Financial Convergence II.

  8. The real change comes with EMU-membership Market harmonisation Market development Main goal: Creation of a competitive, efficient and EMU- compatible government bond market EU and EMU-Convergence

  9. Price quotation Settlement circle Coupon payment frequency Yield calculation Business days (TARGET) (in EMU) Redenomination (in EMU) Market Harmonisation: Conventions

  10. Auctions (Rules and Frequency) Product innovation Secondary market Primary dealers Foreign investors Market Development

  11. General experience in EMU: • with the declining gross borrowing requirements (deficit and maturities) less bond auctions and larger amounts • more active use of buy-backs and T-bills Hungary: • Borrowing need still high • 154 auctions in 2002, reverse auctions(25) • No. of auction was decreased in 2003, but gradually. Auctions

  12. 3, 6 and 12 month T-Bills 3, 5, 10 and 15 year bonds Less bond series (4 new bond series in 2003) Larger sizes of the individual bond series 2001<EUR 1 bn 2002= EUR 1 bn 2003> EUR 1.5 bn Increasing liquidity Product Innovation

  13. Primary dealers (13 in 2002) Increasing role of reverse auctions Securities lending (from 2004) Repo facility (from 2004) and more active liquidity management Electronic trading system Secondary Market

  14. Foreign holdings equal to HUF1800 billion An increase of HUF 730 billion in 2002 5% T-Bills – 95% Bonds Approximately 50% of the marketable bonds Average maturity 3.5 years Foreign investors

  15. 25% of total debt is in foreign currencies Main focus on benchmark bond issues in the single European market A medium term aim to develop the European market for Hungarian debt in euro 1-2 benchmark bonds of min. 1 bn euro New EuroMTS platform – more transparent secondary market Foreign currency debt

  16. Public debt : HUF 9224 billion Approximately 54% of GDP Domestic debt 75%, foreign debt 25% Loans 19%, bonds 81% Average maturity: 2.33 years (HUF marketable) Duration: 1.95 years (HUF marketable) The Public Debt Portfolio

  17. Thank you foryour attention! www.akk.hu More information

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