Regional GLOF Project --

1. Regional Glacial Lake Outburst Floods [GLOF] Risk Reduction Initiative in the Himalayas-- a UNDP-ECHO Initiative –Rajeev IssarBureau for Crisis Prevention & Recovery [BCPR]South & South-West Asia

2. Regional GLOF Project -- • Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) region –

3. The Himalayan region -- • Straddling across Asia – spanning 8 countries and many downstream ones • Largest areas covered by glaciers and permafrost – nature’s renewable storehouse of freshwater • Intrinsically linked to global atmospheric circulation, hydrological cycle, bio-diversity and water resources • Susceptible to hydro-meteorological, geological and climate-induced hazards • 15K glaciers – 9 major river systems – 1.3b people • Outside polar regions, maximum impact of CC on Himalayas -- higher warming than global average and glacial retreat @ 30-60 meters per decade • Likely increase in incidence of climate-induced hazards

4. Glacial lakes --

5. Himalayan glaciers -- • Himalayan glaciers retreating/melting at an alarming rate – faster than glaciers in other regions Dyurgerov and Meier, 2005

6. Glaciers and GLOFs -- • Bhutan:677 glaciers – 2,674 lakes – 24 dangerous • Nepal:3,252 glaciers – 2,323 lakes – 26 dangerous • India:2,554 glaciers – 156 lakes – 16 dangerous • Pakistan:5,218 glaciers – 2,420 lakes – 52 dangerous • Past Events: i. 21 events affected Nepal in recent past at an average of one event every 2-5 years ii. Bhutan has a history of GLOFs in 50s, 60s and in 1994 in Luggye Tsho iii. GLOF events in Ladakh, India though landslide-induced dam outburst more frequent [viz. Parechu, Himachal] iv. Six incidents in Pakistan during 2008-2009 in Hunza valley

7. Characteristics of GLOF hazard -- • Enhanced rate of glacial retreat • Behavioral variations in glacial retreat/advance and formation of lakes within the Himalayan region • Increasing numbers and frequency of GLOF incidents – perceptible increase since second half of 20th century • Inadequate understanding of physical dimensions of hazard • Inherent instability of glacial moraine ‘dams’ can cause sudden outburst releasing millions of cubic meters of water and rocks/debris in a few hours • Varying causes and multiple triggers

8. Project outline -- • Objective:Strengthen GLOF risk reduction efforts in the Himalayan region [India, Pakistan, Bhutan and Nepal] through non-structural and community-based interventions • Outputs: i. Identify current needs, limitations and competencies in reducing GLOF risks in HKH region and enhance understanding of socio- economic risks associated with GLOFs ii. Initiate and establish a regional network to facilitate knowledge networking of stakeholders to develop holistic approaches for GLOF risk mitigation iii. Promote community-based approaches for GLOF risk mitigation v. Promote inter-organizational and regional coordination and adopt a multi-stakeholder approach vi. Support national governments and nodal institutions to develop interventions to mitigate future GLOF/flash flood risks

9. The Methodology -- • Work closely with national and local administrations • A knowledge-driven approach -- technical inputs from ICIMOD, Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, SAARC DMC, TERI, IRI Columbia, TARU, NARC, WWF, Wadia Inst., GB Pant Inst., NIDM, Tribhuvan University, CNR (Bhutan), HIPA, SASE, University of Sussex, ADPC etc. • Association of practitioners’ from DM, CC, development planning, environmental management, NGOs/CBOs • Interaction with communities, elected representatives and traditional community institutions • Test piloting of community interventions • Constitution of Core Working Groups in each project country • Gender and disability identified as cross-cutting issues

10. Key Outputs -- • Preparatory Assessment Reports focusing on (i) socio-economic impact of GLOF/flash flood incidents, (ii) identification of risk mitigation and preparedness measures adopted and (iii) identify capacity needs and gaps at community and local administration level • Identification and implementation of community pilots • Knowledge networking and information sharing --- a dedicated webpage www.managingclimaterisk.org/glofs.htm • Organization of a local-level and national Consultations and Regional Workshop with participation of identified stakeholders • A partnership approach – involving governments, technical agencies, scientific/academic institutions, civil society organizations, elected representatives, communities, media etc. • Greater experience sharing and coordination at regional level • Harmonization of ‘structural’ and ‘non-structural’ mitigation measures and approaches

11. Knowledge networking -- • ‘Melting’ of knowledge domains • Active participation of knowledge networks – DRM Asia, Solution Exchange (India and Bhutan), DP-Net (Nepal), Pamirtimes (Pakistan), CPR Net, Energy & Environment Net, DIPECHO-ICIMOD network • Collating resources, experiences, research findings and knowledge products on GLOFs and risk mitigation approaches through ‘Queries’, E-discussion, monthly updates (over 3K practitioners), dedicated webpage, email groups • Widening the ‘knowledge net’ -- Inputs from Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Aberystwyth (Sussex), Kyoto University, Carleton University, Canada , RISKRED, Office of Emergency Services Commissioner, Victoria (Canada), University of Bonn, RMIT University (Melbourne, Australia), UNESCO, Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (Oslo, Norway), IFRC, WHO and individual experts • Participation even from countries like Tanzania and Ghana • Linkages for building upon technical expertise of national, regional and international organizations established • Harnessing media outreach

12. Solution Exchange – India (2000) Solution Exchange – Bhutan (800) DRM Asia Pamir times – Pakistan (500+) CPR Net Energy & Environment Net DP-NET – Nepal (1400+) DIPECHO-ICIMOD (500)

13. Value addition -- • Addressing an emerging hazard – focusing attention of UNDP COs and administrations • Generating knowledge and research on processes of climate change and their impact on hazard and risk profiles in the region • Strengthening DRM portfolios • Project poised at intersection of climate change and disaster risk reduction • Facilitating greater synergies with knowledge institutions on climate change adaptation, risk management and DRR practice area • Bringing technical knowledge to bear upon risk mitigation approaches

14. Challenges and constraints -- • Vast geographical spread, limited resources and time-frame • An emerging hazard --- little understanding or past experience of efficacy of community-based approaches • Diverse nature of communities with varying traditional practices and DRM orientation • Inaccessible/inhospitable terrain and severe winters restricting community participation due to scattered habitations • Technical challenge in the form of devising appropriate EWSs • Harmonizing two approaches as technology and resources crucial for high-end structural interventions and local administrative/ community preparedness on the other • Linking up-stream and down-stream activities

15. Looking ahead -- • Regional Coordination: Close cause and effect relationship between hazards and risks in Himalayan region and cross-border impacts --– underscore need for a synergistic approach • Research and study: Promote research on emerging hazards, their physical dimensions, disaster cycle, nature, causes, triggers and impacts – better understanding of changing profile of climatic hazards and the virtual re-definition of hazards, risks and vulnerabilities as traditionally recognized • Knowledge networking: Need to promote greater information sharing between countries with shared Himalayan eco-system --- greater collaboration between knowledge generated and CCA/DRR approaches • Integrated approach: Need for an integrated climate risk management approach addressing all climate-induced hazards – hazard-specific research to complement the process • Policy frameworks: Need to formulate policy instruments and frameworks at national, regional and local levels

16. Looking ahead -- • Harmonize CCA and DRR: Linkages with natural/water resource and environment management, and land-use planning as essential components of climate risk management strategies --- i. make them feasible, sustainable and ‘visible’ and connect to communities’ livelihood patterns as 45 million people practice hill agriculture and CC enhances their vulnerability ii. essential for safeguarding socio-economic and development assets iii. address changing hydrological cycle • Early warning systems: devise EWSs for real-time and community-oriented warning dissemination to address peculiar challenges of mountainous regions -– lesser response time but greater response capability • A multi-stakeholder approach: Involve different sectors and stakeholders – need to involve administrations (national to local), scientific, academic, and research institutions, technical agencies, civil society, communities and their traditional institutions, elected representatives and media

17. Thank You www.managingclimaterisk.org/glofs.htm www.undp.org/cpr