Enterprise Approach Used In Cost Estimating

1. Enterprise Approach Used In Cost Estimating Presented by SCEA 2004 National Conference

2. Overview Background Enterprise Approach Estimate Results Lessons Learned Cost Estimate Team Members Linda Blackwell Oasis Janet Wentworth USAF Bob Nelson MCR

3. BackgroundProblem Statement Air Force must meet Mode S requirements 2005 Eurocontrol mandate for Mode S 46 aircraft types 5,000 aircraft 2008 US military requirement for Mode 5 The Mode S cost estimate for 46 aircraft types / 5,000 aircraft had to be developed in a relatively short amount of time. The Sec AF and Chief of Staff AF had the interest because the Mode S Eurocontrol mandate is going to impact AF operations there and there will be a high cost to incorporate. Mode S has been an concern since the mid-1990s. Mobility airplanes (cargo types and refueling tankers) have or are being equipped.The Mode S cost estimate for 46 aircraft types / 5,000 aircraft had to be developed in a relatively short amount of time. The Sec AF and Chief of Staff AF had the interest because the Mode S Eurocontrol mandate is going to impact AF operations there and there will be a high cost to incorporate. Mode S has been an concern since the mid-1990s. Mobility airplanes (cargo types and refueling tankers) have or are being equipped.

4. BackgroundMode S Secondary Surveillance Radar Airborne beacon that sends out signals identifying flight number, location, attitude, heading, etc. Used by air traffic control – includes ground radars Signal is used by the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System Mandated for use by all aircraft operating in Europe starting in 2005 Mode-S Surveillance consists of transmission of airborne data by a transponder in the form of Downlink Airborne Parameters (DAPs). This facilitates an increase in the safety and efficiency of Air Traffic Management operations and is the signal used by the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System. The DAPs include: Air Speed Ground Speed Magnetic Heading Roll Angle Selected Altitude Track Angle Rate True Track Angle Vertical Rate Mode S estimate focus was on airborne components however included ground systems. Mode-S Surveillance consists of transmission of airborne data by a transponder in the form of Downlink Airborne Parameters (DAPs). This facilitates an increase in the safety and efficiency of Air Traffic Management operations and is the signal used by the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System. The DAPs include: Air Speed Ground Speed Magnetic Heading Roll Angle Selected Altitude Track Angle Rate True Track Angle Vertical Rate Mode S estimate focus was on airborne components however included ground systems.

5. BackgroundMode S con’t SITUATION: Mode S is widely used in commercial aviation and will be required for all aircraft operating in Europe in 2005. Currently, not all of the USAF aircraft meet this requirement. Mode S will enable aircraft controllers to handle the growing amount of air traffic in the major European air traffic corridors. In addition to the growth in air traffic there are numerous overlapping ground control radars at work. Mode S Elementary Level Surveillance (ELS) will be required by March 2005. Enhanced Level Surveillance (EHS) will be required for those aircraft that are capable by 2007. SITUATION: Mode S is widely used in commercial aviation and will be required for all aircraft operating in Europe in 2005. Currently, not all of the USAF aircraft meet this requirement. Mode S will enable aircraft controllers to handle the growing amount of air traffic in the major European air traffic corridors. In addition to the growth in air traffic there are numerous overlapping ground control radars at work. Mode S Elementary Level Surveillance (ELS) will be required by March 2005. Enhanced Level Surveillance (EHS) will be required for those aircraft that are capable by 2007.

6. BackgroundEurocontrol Mandate Mode S Elementary Surveillance provides information including the aircraft flight number and a selective interrogation code that can be used by ATCs to interrogate and track each aircraft individually. Enhanced surveillance adds the aircraft speed, heading and attitude. If, for a particular aircraft type, the above parameters are known, the location of that aircraft over near-term time can be calculated within systems such as TCAS.Mode S Elementary Surveillance provides information including the aircraft flight number and a selective interrogation code that can be used by ATCs to interrogate and track each aircraft individually. Enhanced surveillance adds the aircraft speed, heading and attitude. If, for a particular aircraft type, the above parameters are known, the location of that aircraft over near-term time can be calculated within systems such as TCAS.

7. BackgroundMode S/5 Equipment Mode S equipment consists of interrogators, transponders and control panels. Mode 5 equipment additionally includes interrogators and crypto appliqués. For those aircraft having earlier analog versions of the Mode S transponder the new units are form-fit replacements.Mode S equipment consists of interrogators, transponders and control panels. Mode 5 equipment additionally includes interrogators and crypto appliqués. For those aircraft having earlier analog versions of the Mode S transponder the new units are form-fit replacements.

8. BackgroundPlatforms The aircraft were separated into groupings to enable the cost estimate to be aggregated with respect to equipage priorities. Those based in Europe and potentially rotated to Europe would form the first group. Those that fly frequently in Europe made up the second category and those that seldom/never fly in Europe comprised the third category. The aircraft were separated into groupings to enable the cost estimate to be aggregated with respect to equipage priorities. Those based in Europe and potentially rotated to Europe would form the first group. Those that fly frequently in Europe made up the second category and those that seldom/never fly in Europe comprised the third category.

9. BackgroundEnterprise Approach The aircraft were separated into groupings to enable the cost estimate to be aggregated with respect to equipage priorities. Those based in Europe and potentially rotated to Europe would form the first group. Those that fly frequently in Europe made up the second category and those that seldom/never fly in Europe comprised the third category. The aircraft were separated into groupings to enable the cost estimate to be aggregated with respect to equipage priorities. Those based in Europe and potentially rotated to Europe would form the first group. Those that fly frequently in Europe made up the second category and those that seldom/never fly in Europe comprised the third category.

10. BackgroundEnterprise Partners Electronics Systems Center Global Air Technical Expertise – Mode S Estimate Review and Coordination Strategic Reconnaissance / Computer Resources Support Group Technical Expertise – Mode 5 Aeronautical Systems Center Aging Aircraft Aircraft Integration Expertise SPO & Financial Management Estimate Review and Coordination Air Mobility Command/ Air Combat Command / Air Staff Integration Roadmap Coordination The estimate was to be developed by each of the responsible aircraft managers offices (System Program Offices or SPOs). These estimates were developed by SPO personnel sometimes with assistance from support and integrating contractors. The Enterprise Participants included ESC/GA, ESC/SRC, ASC/AA, ASC/FMC, Major Commands (AMC, ACC), Air Staff and the individual aircraft SPOs. The estimate was to be developed by each of the responsible aircraft managers offices (System Program Offices or SPOs). These estimates were developed by SPO personnel sometimes with assistance from support and integrating contractors. The Enterprise Participants included ESC/GA, ESC/SRC, ASC/AA, ASC/FMC, Major Commands (AMC, ACC), Air Staff and the individual aircraft SPOs.

11. Enterprise ApproachThe Overall Process

12. Estimate ProcessTechnical Consistency Technical solutions to required upgrade Specifications – for transponder Integration level (Elementary / Enhanced) Upgrade path definition The estimate for all of the aircraft needed to be consistent, uniform and reflect a common understanding of the technical requirements being imposed by Mode S (ELS and EHS) as well as Mode 5 The Electronic System Center’s (ESC) Global Air Traffic office provided the technical requirements based on their understanding of the Mode S and Mode 5 requirements and parameters. The estimate for all of the aircraft needed to be consistent, uniform and reflect a common understanding of the technical requirements being imposed by Mode S (ELS and EHS) as well as Mode 5 The Electronic System Center’s (ESC) Global Air Traffic office provided the technical requirements based on their understanding of the Mode S and Mode 5 requirements and parameters.

13. Estimate ProcessConsistency Common Cost Element Structure Development Hardware (aircraft kit) Software (modify flight S/W) Test, Systems Engineering Operational Testing Production Procurement (Mode S and A/C kits) Installation (Mode S and A/C kits) Test, Systems Engineering The Aircraft Systems Center (ESC) offices provided the consistent cost element structure that was provided for use in the estimate for all aircraft. The Aircraft Systems Center (ESC) offices provided the consistent cost element structure that was provided for use in the estimate for all aircraft.

14. Estimate Process Consistency con’t Common Ground Rules & Assumptions Schedule/priority to meet mandate Estimate confidence Economic – constant year, inflation factors ESC & ASC developed the common ground rules & assumptions that would apply to all estimates. USAF financial management standards was the source of the economic guidelines (how to handle inflation, etc.).ESC & ASC developed the common ground rules & assumptions that would apply to all estimates. USAF financial management standards was the source of the economic guidelines (how to handle inflation, etc.).

15. Estimate Process Consistency con’t Mode S transponder is an iGATM catalog item Knowledge of analogous integrations Various approached could be used to estimate aircraft changes, software modification and in-particular by the newer aircraft (F-22, F-35) Reviewed by ASC/ESC cost estimators who understood the technical requirements The estimates were developed individually by each of the aircraft SPOs with the assistance of support or integrating contractors. In general the estimate was developed through the use of knowledge within the SPO or by contractor personnel of the technical requirements and cost of analogous integrations. As an example estimates of the installation time was provided by “expert knowledge of analogous integrations” whereas the cost of the Mode S transponder was provided as a part of the cost estimate guidance. To assist the aircraft SPOs in the development of their estimate ESC/GAT provided an equipage matrix that helped them to determine their technical solution. The Mode S / 5 transponder is currently in the iGATM catalog. This is operated by ESC/GAT and allows all customers to order GATM equipment. The iGATM catalog items have been made available by a competitive procurement process. The Mode S transponder has a cost of about $50K.The estimates were developed individually by each of the aircraft SPOs with the assistance of support or integrating contractors. In general the estimate was developed through the use of knowledge within the SPO or by contractor personnel of the technical requirements and cost of analogous integrations. As an example estimates of the installation time was provided by “expert knowledge of analogous integrations” whereas the cost of the Mode S transponder was provided as a part of the cost estimate guidance. To assist the aircraft SPOs in the development of their estimate ESC/GAT provided an equipage matrix that helped them to determine their technical solution. The Mode S / 5 transponder is currently in the iGATM catalog. This is operated by ESC/GAT and allows all customers to order GATM equipment. The iGATM catalog items have been made available by a competitive procurement process. The Mode S transponder has a cost of about $50K.

16. Estimate Process Consistency con’t Aircraft specific integration requirements defined by each SPO based on: Mode S/5 technical specifications Mode 5 crypto development schedule Requirements to integrate to EHS The aircraft specific Mode S integration technical requirements were developed by each SPO based on their understanding of the Mode S and Mode 5 requirements and parameters. The aircraft specific Mode S integration technical requirements were developed by each SPO based on their understanding of the Mode S and Mode 5 requirements and parameters.

17. Estimate Process Coordination Constant interface and contact required among Enterprise participants Provided by ASC to ensure that each SPO acted in a timely manner Multiple stakeholders have multiple priorities Warfighter capability has a higher priority The SPOs all have their workload and priorities to consider. It was necessary in some cases for ASC to work with the SPOs to insure that the estimate information was submitted on schedule. That constant interface and contact that ASC had with the SPOs was the reason why the estimate was accomplished on schedule. Military platforms look to put military capabilities on the aircraft. Air Traffic Control (ATC) equipment is not of as high of a priority as military capability. Also, work-a rounds and waivers have been used to gain access to the air space above other nations. The SPOs all have their workload and priorities to consider. It was necessary in some cases for ASC to work with the SPOs to insure that the estimate information was submitted on schedule. That constant interface and contact that ASC had with the SPOs was the reason why the estimate was accomplished on schedule. Military platforms look to put military capabilities on the aircraft. Air Traffic Control (ATC) equipment is not of as high of a priority as military capability. Also, work-a rounds and waivers have been used to gain access to the air space above other nations.

18. Estimate ResultsCost Breakdown The cost results were presented in terms of funded costs (due to on-going Mode S integrations), unfunded costs for Mode S ELS (the portion of the most immediate interest) and the unfunded costs for Mode S (EHS) and Mode 5. Additionally, a variety of fielding charts were prepared including the type shown earlier.The cost results were presented in terms of funded costs (due to on-going Mode S integrations), unfunded costs for Mode S ELS (the portion of the most immediate interest) and the unfunded costs for Mode S (EHS) and Mode 5. Additionally, a variety of fielding charts were prepared including the type shown earlier.

19. Estimate Results Fielding Plan Sand-Chart The chart depicts the envisioned equipage with Mode S over the time-frame through 2015 – building up to the approximately 5,000 aircraft. The cost estimate data was integrated into time-phased estimates that were broken down into several categories. Estimates for research and development was separated from those for acquisition/installation of the Mode S system. The cost for the various missions of aircraft (fighter, bomber, cargo, and intelligence) were aggregated. The estimate for aircraft based in Europe, often in Europe, seldom in Europe and never in Europe were separately defined. All of this information was time phased and then displayed in a variety of ways. For example, “sand charts” of the build up of cost over time for categories of aircraft were frequently provided. The chart depicts the envisioned equipage with Mode S over the time-frame through 2015 – building up to the approximately 5,000 aircraft. The cost estimate data was integrated into time-phased estimates that were broken down into several categories. Estimates for research and development was separated from those for acquisition/installation of the Mode S system. The cost for the various missions of aircraft (fighter, bomber, cargo, and intelligence) were aggregated. The estimate for aircraft based in Europe, often in Europe, seldom in Europe and never in Europe were separately defined. All of this information was time phased and then displayed in a variety of ways. For example, “sand charts” of the build up of cost over time for categories of aircraft were frequently provided.

20. Estimate ResultsThe Final Briefing Estimate briefed to Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition in Nov 2003 Focus on Mode S Integration Time-phased costs Fielding plan Briefing accepted Offices directed to work the immediate costs and to budget requests for FY-06 and beyond A briefing in November 2003 resulted in the approval of the proposed Mode S / 5 integration approach and fielding plan. The instructions were to provide for the FY04 – FY05 costs within each SPO and to put the FY-06 and beyond costs into the budget requesting information. Eliminating the costs of items commonly used with Mode S, such as TCAS, but not required for Mode S operations, lowered the estimate considerably. The information was finally presented to the Secretary of the Air Force and the Chief of Staff, Air Force on 4 Feb 2004.A briefing in November 2003 resulted in the approval of the proposed Mode S / 5 integration approach and fielding plan. The instructions were to provide for the FY04 – FY05 costs within each SPO and to put the FY-06 and beyond costs into the budget requesting information. Eliminating the costs of items commonly used with Mode S, such as TCAS, but not required for Mode S operations, lowered the estimate considerably. The information was finally presented to the Secretary of the Air Force and the Chief of Staff, Air Force on 4 Feb 2004.

21. Lessons Learned Insure consistent understanding of GR&A Insure understanding of technical approach Allow estimator to define methodology. Review for consistency and compliance Keep to the schedule A briefing in November 2003 resulted in the approval of the proposed Mode S / 5 integration approach and fielding plan. The instructions were to provide for the FY04 – FY05 costs within each SPO and to put the FY-06 and beyond costs into the budget requesting information. The information was presented to the Secretary of the Air Force and the Chief of Staff, Air Force on 4 Feb 2004A briefing in November 2003 resulted in the approval of the proposed Mode S / 5 integration approach and fielding plan. The instructions were to provide for the FY04 – FY05 costs within each SPO and to put the FY-06 and beyond costs into the budget requesting information. The information was presented to the Secretary of the Air Force and the Chief of Staff, Air Force on 4 Feb 2004