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BALWOIS 2010

BALWOIS 2010. WATER SHORTAGE RISK MODELING IN SUPPLY SYSTEMS IN THE COASTAL REGION OF MONTENEGRO Olivera Doklestic, Vodacom, ltd Tivat, Montenegro. BALWOIS 2010. BALWOIS 2010. BALWOIS 2010. BALWOIS 2010. BASIC FEATURES OF THE WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS

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BALWOIS 2010

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  1. BALWOIS 2010 WATER SHORTAGE RISK MODELING IN SUPPLY SYSTEMS IN THE COASTAL REGION OF MONTENEGRO Olivera Doklestic, Vodacom, ltd Tivat, Montenegro

  2. BALWOIS 2010

  3. BALWOIS 2010

  4. BALWOIS 2010 BALWOIS 2010 BASIC FEATURES OF THE WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS • Not uniform degree of the system complexity • Different age and quality of facilities • Unequal water production in terms of time and space • Unequal water consumption and distribution in terms of time and space • Different degree of water revenue • Different IP of companies and systems

  5. RISK THEORY BASICS The water shortage risk theory begins from the fact that the coast of Montenegro as a tourist region, has a significantly increased number of inhabitants during the summer, and in that time water consumption per capita reaches enormous value of nearly 500 l/p, being about 2,5 greater than in the rest of the year. Large tourist complexes in terms of water supply set an imperative task for provision of all-day water from public water systems. Due to both tourism economy, on the one hand, and the resident population and their needs, on the other hand, the risk of water shortage or insufficient quantities of water in the system should be the most important part of water system management, i.e., the issue of water utility management. Knowledge of the problem bases and developing risk theory is key to managing water quantities in the system. BALWOIS 2010

  6. BALWOIS 2010 MODEL RISK SYSTEM CONSISTS OF THREE PHASES 1. Defining the real conditions,system identification, analysis of water production and consumption, use of hydrologic series, identification of all important parameters of water systems and possible catchments and directing water towards the system (the condition of the reservoir, network, pumping stations and other elements of water system). • Analysis of several decades long series of hydrological series with analysis of dry period. • Modeling the potential risk, depending on the hydrological series, different time horizons, system conditions and other parameters that define the natural and technical conditions of the system.

  7. BALWOIS 2010 Risk, directly implying: the economic damage, According to the risk, theory must have two processes: • risk assessment • risk management.

  8. BALWOIS 2010 Average annual rainfall values Comparative chart of annual rainfall: maximum, average and minimum

  9. BALWOIS 2010 Pyramid of Water Balance

  10. WATER STRESS INDEX Relatively satisfactory value ...................................... 0 to 5 Tension of water value ..................................... 6 to 10 Water scarcity value .................................... 11 to 20 Absolute lack of water ................................. > 20 SOCIAL WATER STRESS INDEX Relative sufficiency.......... 0 to 9 Water stress ................... 10 to 19 Water scarcity ................. 20 to 29 The absolute water scarcity. ≥ 30 BALWOIS 2010 I

  11. BALWOIS 2010 WSI index values for coastal municipalities in Montenegro, on an annual basis, and for the summer period July - August

  12. BALWOIS 2010 PRELIMINARY RISK ASSESSMENT • Minimum abundance of resources (in long hydrological series) and the quantity of water that enters in the system • Daily water demand • Seasonal (annual) water demand (for a longer period of time) • Water tanks capacity • Network capacity • Configuration of the terrain and layout of the network • Priorities and importance of facilities or supply zones

  13. RISK MODEL SHEMA CONSISTS OF INPUT VARIABLES: INPUT VARIABLES are: • The amount of produced water reducted by the percentage of the total losses in the system • Total reservoir space • Speed of defect removal • OUTPUT VARIABLES are: • The total amount of water inflow into the system • Reducing water amount by supply zones, above 50 m • Water demand • Water restrictions by supply zones (from 0.00 to 50.00 and from 50.00 to 250.00 m above sea level) • Economic loss • Psycho-social consequences

  14. BALWOIS 2010 Scheme of water risk model with the causes of reduced water in the system, where: HS – means hydrological series, PV - produced water, VG - water losses, NV - charged water, RP – reservoir space, BOK - Speed of defect removal

  15. BALWOIS 2010 Factors which affect the speed of defect removal

  16. BALWOIS 2010 Seasonal variability and performance indicators rank

  17. BALWOIS 2010 Inverted pyramid of risk level

  18. BALWOIS 2010 Multi-level risk state

  19. BALWOIS 2010 • The task of risk model is the system management in such a manner so as to reduce stressful situation as far as possible, and minimize the negative economic effect. It is certain that it is very difficult to simultaneously satisfy both sides. This can be achieved by temporary and long-term solutions. Temporary solutions are: • significantly increased professional readiness and mobility of the system, of all sectors • carefully dealing with customers • rational diversion of water through all parts of the system • Long-term solutions are: • permanent monitoring of hydrological conditions • construction of additional reservoir capacity • rehabilitation and reconstruction of water supply network • new conceptual solutions • division supply zone to priority sectors • pressure management • control of losses with leakage reduction.

  20. BALWOIS 2010 CONCLUSION • To manage the risk of water shortge is a very complex task, which should respond to the operation of the system in various conditions of unfavorable circumstances, caused by natural or anthropogenic factors. In spite of the fact that risk theory in the world has already reached large proportions, it is, however, to a considerable extent also specific for each environment. Most often risk management is reduced to conscience and responsibility of management teams. Neglecting to show the economic effects means only concealing the actual damage and prolongation of problem solving for some time in the future. • To date, Montenegro has still not dealt with risk in water supply systems in a systematic manner. It can be said that there is a controlled seasonal performance management system and knowledge of certain side effects, especially in the summer period and during the tourist season, and for large hotel facilities. However, in the future theory of risk is to take hold in practice, because tourism capacities are being more and more developed, as well as the other wayer supply needs.

  21. Thank you for your attention!

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