Xiaochun Qiao PhD and Professor Institute of Population Research Peking University

1. Census and Analysis of Ageing Issues in China Xiaochun Qiao PhD and Professor Institute of Population Research Peking University NEEDS ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE ON CENSUS ANALYSIS IN ASIA Bali, Indonesia November 23-25, 2011

2. Outline • General introduction: population and economic development in China • Population aging • Needs and supplies for research on aging • Some considerations on census data analysis

3. General Introduction :Background of Population and Economic Development • Decreasing the population growth and increasing the economic growth have become the goals of national development since 1970s, and both made a great achievement. • Family planning program, started in the early 1970s, led the TFR decreased from 5.8 in 1970 to 1.6 in 2010. • Economic reform, started in 1978, made the GDP increased by 9.5% a year on average. GDP increased 109 times until now. China's economy became the second largest in the world. • However, as a huge number of population, the GDP per capita in China still ranked 94th in the world in 2010, which means that Chinese people are still poor.

4. The current success in family planning policy and economic policy, as well as the manner of their implementation has resulted in immense changes in Chinese society. • For example, population in poverty has reduced from 94.2 million (poverty line = 865 CNY) in 2000 to 26.9 million (poverty line = 1275 CNY) in 2010, and both wealth and wealth inequality increased. • Disparities of population between urban and rural areas and among provinces are huge. Average income in 2010 was 2949 USD for urban residents and only 913 USD for rural residents. The difference was more than three times

7. GDP Per Capita by Provinces, 2008

8. Population Aging in China China has just published the number 1 and 2 preliminary reports for the key figures of the 2010 census on April 28 and 29, 2011, respectively. Age Structure (%)

9. Compared with Other Countries（2010）PRB: World Population Sheet, 2010

10. Projected Aging and Population Aged 100Mil % 5 36 Aged 60+(100Mil) Aged 65+(100Mil) 4 Proportion aged 60+岁(%) 27 Proportion aged 65+(%) 3 18 2 9 1 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year Source: Report of the Research of National Population and Development Strategy

11. Child Dependency Ratio and Elderly Dependency Ratio CDR EDR

12. Aging Research in DifferentDimensions • National dimension, sub-national dimension, sub-population dimension, time dimension, family dimension, such that • Populationbyageandsexinnationallevel • Populationbyageandsexinsub-nationallevel ---different spatial level • Populationnotonlybyageandsexbutalsobysocialandeconomiccharacters,thatis,insocioeconomicsub-populationlevel • Intergenerationalrelationinnationallevel --- national pension and long-term care plans • Intergenerationalrelationwithinfamilies --- family care for the elderly

13. WhatWeHaveinCensusDataQuestionnaireInformation • Thereareshortandlongformsforthe2010 census.Inthelongform,itincludeshousinginformation,generaldemographicitems,migrationanditsreasons,education,employment,mainsourcesfordailyliving,marriage,childbearing,andperceivedhealthstatus. • Deathquestionnaire,enumeratedbysomeonediedinthepreviousyear,wasalsoinvolvedinthiscensuswith8items

14. Needs for Research on AginginTerms of Population Projection • Determinantsofpopulationaging,suchasfertility,mortality,andinternationalmigration • Projectiononpopulationagingbasedonbaselinepopulationandtheassumptionoffertility,mortalityandinternationalmigrationinthefuture • Sub-national(suchasurban-rural,provinces,citiesandevencounties)projectiononpopulationaging,whichismoreimportantinChinaasthedisparitiesamongareasarehuge. • Fromtheprojection,wecanobtainthenumberandproportionofelderlyalivebyageandsexateachyearinagivenarea(nationalandsub-national)inthefuture. • InChina,thedatafromcensusesprovidesufficientresourcesforconductingpopulationprojectionaswecanobtainfertility,mortality,andinternalmigrationsince1982census.

15. Needs for Research on AginginTerms of Sub-Population • Inagingresearch,itisnotenoughforjustprovidingtheresultsofthenumber,proportionanditsage-sexstructureoftheelderly,butwehavetotargetonthemostvulnerablegroupsoftheelderly,suchaspoverty,disabled,unhealthyelderly,and elderlyunabletocarryoutactivityofdailyliving(ADLandIADL) • Inthe questionnaire of the 2010census,thereare noincome anddisability information, but did have question dealing with self-rated health combining with ADL, which provides an unique chance to estimate the vulnerability of the elderly. • With combination of death and health information, we can calculate not only life expectancy but health expectancy as well based on Sullivan Method.

16. Needs for Research on AginginTerms of FamilyRelationship • Usually, we calculate the population by variables to get the frequency and distribution of one variable and cross-table for two or three variables. • It would be very unfortunate that we rarely calculate the relations among family members within households or families, such as disparities in socioeconomic characters between husband and wife, between parent and children as the data processing for this information is much more complicated. • As fast of population aging, consequently, the family structure changed dramatically, and family size is shrinking

17. Average Number of Children Ever Born by Age Group of Women

18. Once we have census data, We have to consider: • What we have in terms of census data --- content of the data • What we should do with what we have ---content of analysis • Whether we can do or potentially do better with what we have --- quality of data • How we do with the qualified data --- methods used for data analysis • What we can produce from the data --- results of data analysis • How efficient and effective with what we produced --- policy driven

19. As we are discussing “the needs assessment on census data analysis”, we have to consider: • Whether what we needs is just the needs of policymakers? • Can we or do we identify the difference? • If it does exist and we have known the difference, how to meet their (policymaker’s) needs by adjusting our (researchers’) needs, in order to make more effective and fruitful analysis. • So we have to change the way of thinking and the way of analyzing for demographic research. • We are the result producer, while they are the result consumer. We must understand the roles of census specialists (producing the data), researchers (producing the results of data analysis), and policymakers (consumers of the results)

20. Weakness of Census Analysis • One of the weaknesses of census data analysis is that the results are mostly descriptive, rather than explanatory. • The descriptive results are just the demographic results, such as proportion of aged, nothing to do with “PROBLEMS” and the “causes of the problems”, which are more interested by policymakers • The results described were usually used in demographic terms, rather than in the terms understandable by policymakers

21. Absence of Standard Error Estimates When Using Sample Data in Local Areas • Even though this is not a big deal in the data analysis of China’s census as the large number of population, it is still worth doing when analyzing and comparing populations by both sub-national and sub-population. • Special attention should be given to some categorical variables close to 50%, which has the largest variance, such as sex ratio at birth. • The variances for life expectancies and health life expectancies also need to be estimated as death is the events with small probabilities.

22. Disparity Measured by Variance • Poverty among counties may be very high. We usually measure this by calculating variance of income among counties, or instead, we can show this through spatial figures among counties using GIS. • As we are going to compare the differences of poverty among counties, we have to consider some impacts by unrelated variables such as age and sex structures, urban and rural compositions, and other variables • In order to eliminate some potential sources of spuriousness, as a demographer we have to do standardization, and as a statistician we have to do multivariate analysis

23. Last Comment • As census is a general population survey, rather than a specific sampling survey for a special purpose, so that we cannot put high expectations on the results from census data. • Integrating census data analysis with the analysis for the data of sampling survey targeting on special topics can make the analysis of census data more efficient and effective.

24. Thank You