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The Politics of immigration

The Politics of immigration. Peter Kellner Chairman. Saliency in 2005. Which two or three issues matter most? (top six of 12 shown) April 5 % Health 41 Immigration 40 Crime 36 Tax 30 The economy 27 Education 20. Saliency in 2005.

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The Politics of immigration

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  1. The Politicsofimmigration Peter KellnerChairman

  2. Saliency in 2005 • Which two or three issues matter most? • (top six of 12 shown) • April 5 • % • Health 41 • Immigration 40 • Crime 36 • Tax 30 • The economy 27 • Education 20

  3. Saliency in 2005 • Which two or three issues matter most? • (top six of 12 shown) • April 5 May 5 • % % • Health 41 44 • Immigration 40 37 • Crime 36 30 • Tax 30 26 • The economy 27 32 • Education 20 28

  4. Priorities for Gordon Brown • What should be his top priorities? • (top six of 12 shown) • All • % • Reduce immigration 65 • Bring home troops from Iraq 53 • Act on climate change 38 • Build more prisons 35 • Higher taxes on £100k+ 34 • More parent, patient choice 32 • Nb: Reform House of Lords 11

  5. Priorities for Gordon Brown • What should be his top priorities? • (top six of 12 shown) • All Lab • % % • Reduce immigration 65 53 • Bring home troops from Iraq 53 43 • Act on climate change 38 45 • Build more prisons 35 31 • Higher taxes on £100k+ 34 44 • More parent, patient choice 32 31 • Nb: Reform House of Lords 11 18

  6. Priorities for Gordon Brown • What should be his top priorities? • (top six of 12 shown) Party • All Lab members • % % % • Reduce immigration 65 53 20 • Bring home troops from Iraq 53 43 25 • Act on climate change 38 45 56 • Build more prisons 35 31 16 • Higher taxes on £100k+ 34 44 51 • More parent, patient choice 32 31 23 • Nb: Reform House of Lords 11 18 39

  7. Attitudes towards immigration • Positive statements Agree Disagree • % % • Many immigrants have contributed positively • to Britain’s quality of life 58 27 • Eastern Europeans working here are • hard-working, competent, reliable 38 23

  8. Attitudes towards immigration • Positive statements Agree Disagree • % % • Many immigrants have contributed positively • to Britain’s quality of life 58 27 • Eastern Europeans working here are • hard-working, competent, reliable 38 23 • Immigration from Eastern Europe has helped • Britain’s economy to grow 24 48 • NHS would collapse without steady supply • of new immigrants 20 57

  9. Attitudes towards immigration • Negative statements Agree Disagree • % % • Britain is overcrowded 75 15 • Current immigration levels make community • relations more difficult 74 13 • Britain is losing its identity / culture 72 21 • Because of low immigrant pay, it’s harder for • our unemployed & low-skilled to find work 57 28

  10. Immigration statistics • Government figures… • All • % • Are accurate and tell the full story 1 • Are accurate as far as they go, but • don’t tell the full story 29 • Are inaccurate 56

  11. Immigration statistics • Government figures… • All Lab • % % • Are accurate and tell the full story 1 2 • Are accurate as far as they go, but • don’t tell the full story 29 49 • Are inaccurate 56 32

  12. What should the Tories do? • Take a tougher stance on immigration? • All Con • % % • Agree 62 85 • Disagree 15 9

  13. What should the Tories do? • Take a tougher stance on immigration? • All Con • % % • Agree 62 85 • Disagree 15 9 • But remember Romsey by-election

  14. What should the Tories do? • Views of party members, Sept 2005 • ‘The new party leader should campaign more on the economy and the public services, and less on immigration, than in this year’s general election campaign’ • Support 74% • Oppose 17%

  15. Len Pen’s record • 1974-81 Pres. FN Deputies • elections votes seats • % % • 1974 0.4 • 0.3 0 • 1981 - 0.2 0

  16. Len Pen’s record • The 1986 breakthrough Pres. FN Deputies • elections votes seats • % % • 1974 0.4 • 0.3 0 • 1981 - 0.2 0 • 1986 9.7 35

  17. Len Pen’s record • Since 1986 Pres. • elections • % • 1988 14.5 • 1995 15.0 • 2002 16.9 • 2007 10.4

  18. Len Pen’s record • Since 1986 Pres. FN Deputies • elections votes seats • % % • 1986 9.7 35 • 1988 14.5 9.7 1 • 1993 13.8 0 • 1995 15.0 • 1997 15.0 1 • 2002 16.9 11.3 0 • 2007 10.4

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