Secondary Mortgage Market

1. Secondary Mortgage Market

2. Definition of Secondary Mortgage Market (SMM) A collection of institutions and individuals involved in the trading of mortgages either in their primitive forms or in transformed forms called Mortgage Passthrough Securities (MPTS) What are MPTS? • bonds, notes or certificates -- issued against and collateralized by a pool of mortgages where the issuer passes mortgage payment from borrowers to investors who purchased the securities. Hence the name “passthroughs”

3. Function of the SMM • To provide liquidity to the primary market. • To correct geographical mismatch in mortgage markets. • To correct institutional mismatch in the flow of funds in the primary mortgage • Management of interest rate risk

4. Facilitators of the Market or Market Makers • Broker • no risk • Dealers • exposed to interest rate risk • Conduits • transformation • standardization

5. Role of Conduits • Transform mortgages into more liquid mortgage pass through securities • Standardize whole mortgages to create sufficient volume • Examples • Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac), Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae), commercial banks, S&Ls, mortgage banks, investment banks

6. GNMA or Ginnie Mae • Guarantees the timely payment of interest and principal on MPTs backed by FHA, VA loans • Has backing of the full faith and credit of the US government • Enables mortgage originators to package mortgages and issue securities backed by these mortgages • The buyer of the security is charged a fee which provides GNMA with operating funds.

7. FNMA or Fannie Mae • Corporate instrumentality of the US government whose stocks are traded on the NYSE • Primary function is to purchase and sell FHA, VA and Conventional mortgages • Issues its own security collateralized by mortgages called Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBSs) • cash program and swap program • Sources for capital for FNMA • non-voting preferred • non-voting common • notes and debentures

8. Fannie Mae (Contd). • The ACT setting up FNMA allows the agency to borrow from the Treasury up to $ 2.5 billion. • In practice investors do not see the difference between Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae guarantee. • Should there be a yield differential between a Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae security of similar maturity? Think about this !!!!!

9. FHLMC/ Freddie Mac • Established to provide liquidity in conventional mortgages • Currently its portfolio includes both conventional, FHA and VA loans • Sells the mortgages either in whole, or in the form of MPTs called Participation Certificates (PCs) • Cash program • Swap program (1984)

10. Outstanding Passthrough As of September 1994 Agency outstanding ($ billions) Ginnie Mae $426.4 Freddie Mac $461.5 Fannie Mae $505.7 Private $179.5 Total $1,573.1

11. FACT • About 49% of the estimated $3.2 trillion of single family mortgages outstanding have been securitized. • From 1989 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac issues outstripped Ginnie Maes. • Roughly 88% of securitized residential mortgages have agency labels. • In 1984 Fannie Mae created first MBS collateralized by multifamily mortgages

12. Types of Mortgage Related Securities • Mortgage pass-through securities (MPTs) • Mortgage-backed security (MBS): FNMA • Participation Certificates (PCs): FHLMC • Ginnie Maes • Private Pass-throughs • Mortgage Backed Bonds (MBBs) • Other Mortgage Derivative Securities • Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs) • Interest Only (IOs) and Principal Only (POs) • Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS)

13. Operations in the Secondary Mortgage Market Borrowers Originating lenders and services 1 2 3a 3b 5 Swaps 4 Insurance Brokers Dealers Government Guarantee GSEs, Private conduits, HFA GSEs Notes Bonds Mortgage Backed Security Security Dealers Investors

14. Mortgage Pass Through Structure Trustee/Custodian owns mortgages in pool no overcollateralization Collateral Whole mortgages • Pass through issuer • sale of assets • not obligation of issuer • debt obligation of original borrower MPT Investor :Owns the right to receive cash flow from morgages in pool

15. The Mortgage Passthrough Security with Government Guarantee (Ginnie Mae) Mortgages Lenders (Securities issuers) Borrowers Insurance/guarantee (Government or PMI) Monthly payments Seeks guarantee Mortgages Whole loans Government Agency Mortgage Pool Guarantee Mortgage documents Securities Dealer Custodian of mortgage documents Securities Investors

16. Creation of Ginnie Maes Mr./Ms. Smith Investors Thrifts, Banks, Others Lenders Thrift or Bank $ $ Mr./Ms. Jones GNMA Guarantee Mortgages Fee Mr./Ms. Miller GNMA

17. Mr./Ms. Smith Lenders Thrift or Bank $ Mr./Ms. Jones Investors Thrifts, Banks, Others $ Mortgages Sell $ Mr./Ms. Miller Agencies FNMA FHLMC MBS Creation of other Agency Mortgage Pass-Through (MPTs)

18. Advantages of MPTs over Whole Mortgages • Diversification of prepayment risk • Investment is made more liquid • More efficient way to invest in mortgages than purchasing the primitive instrument • Efficient management of interest rate risk • Cheaper source of financing housing • Guarantees eliminates default risk

19. Features of MPT • Prepayment risk • Systematic risk • Unsystematic risk • Default risk

20. Nature of Cash Flow from MPT • Monthly payments consisting of • Interest on the mortgage • Scheduled principal repayments. • Unscheduled principal repayments. • The cash flow is reduced by servicing fee and guarantee fee of 50 basis points • Cash flow and value of MPT security depends on the cash flow from underlying mortgage

21. Mortgage Cash Flows Principal No Prepayments Interest 10 8 Cash Flow 6 4 2 0 0 100 200 300 360 MONTHS

22. Pass-Through Cash Flows Principal Servicing No Prepayments Interest 10 8 Cash Flow 6 4 2 0 0 100 200 300 360 MONTHS

23. Timing of Cash Flow • The first mortgage payment is always made in arrears • There is another delay after receipt of cash flow from mortgage pool before the cash flow is passed on to the investor • Real or actual delay • Stated delay = normal delay + actual delay

24. A B C D Payment Delay Illustration Month 1 Month 2 Stated Delay = 45 days GNMA-I Real Delay = 14 days A B C D Stated Delay = 50 days GNMA-II Real Delay = 19 days A: Investor Buys Security B: First Record Date C: First Payment Due D: First Payment Actually Made

25. Payment Delay Illustration Month 1 Month 2 A B C D Stated Delay = 55 days FNMA MBS Real Delay = 24 days A B C D FHLMC PC Stated Delay = 75 days A: Investor Buys Security B: First Record Date C: First Payment Due D: First Payment Actually Made Real Delay = 44 days

26. Nature of Promise on MPT cashflow • Fully Modified e.g. Fannie Mae Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) • timely payment of both P and I • Modified e.g. Freddie Mac Participation Certificate (PC) • timely payment of interest only

27. Some salient Characteristics of MPTs affecting pricing • Characteristics of Pool, e.g. FHA/VA, conventional mortgage • Maximum size of Loan e.g. conforming loan versus jumbo • Amount of Seasoning • Assumability • Maturity e.g. 15, 20, 30 years • Net Interest Spread • Payment Procedure e.g. stated delay • Minimum Pool Size

28. Private Passthroughs • Issued by thrifts, commercial banks and investment banks • Large-size loans • Registered with SEC • Rated by Moody’s and S&P • FRM’s or ARM’s • Market size around 6% of all MPTs

29. Credit Enhancement on Private MPTs • Corporate guarantee -- • Letters of credit -- issued by financial institutions. • Bond insurance -- rating of insurance co. • Senior/subordinate certificate --A/B passthrough • A has priority over B in terms of cash flow • A certificates are the once rated • Additional safeguards to protect against shortfall in payment • reserve fund • divert principal from B to A • shifting interest • prepayment meant for B goes to A

30. Differences between MBS and Traditional Bonds • MBS pay-off monthly. Bonds typically pay-off semi-annually • MBS payments consists of principal and interest, bond payments typical consists of interest only • MBS have payment delays, Treasury bonds have no payment delay • MBS has call risk due to borrower prepayment. Some bond have no call options • Some MBS have default risk. Treasury bonds have no default risk

31. Prepayment Basics: A Mobile Population • The history of US has been of one migration, from overseas, east to west, north to south, etc • 20% of US households will change their place of residence at least once in a given year (Census Bureau) • 8.5% all homeowners will move in a normal year (Census Bureau) • About 8% of all mortgages outstanding are likely to be prepared in any given year due to changes in residence • Investors in diversified pool of mortgages can expect about 8% of their principal to be returned to them due to prepayments • Not all moves results in prepayment since some mortgages are assumable

32. Prepayment are very important to Mortgage Investing • Homeowner prepayments are the most important aspect of mortgage or mortgage passthrough investing • Changes in prepayment rates are the most important risk facing mortgage securities investors. • Fortunately, the basic forces driving prepayments are easy to understand • Prepayments are driven by: • career changes • lifestyle changes • changes in interest rates • Does this mean prepayments can be easily forecast?

33. Measuring Prepayment Speeds • There are four methods of measuring prepayment speeds • Prepayment based on FHA experience • Constant Prepayment Rates (CPR) • Single Monthly Mortality (SMM) • PSA Standard Prepayment Benchmark

34. FHA Prepayment Method • This prepayment method is based on data collected by FHA tracking mortgage prepayments based on seasoning • As figure 1B shows very few mortgages prepay in first year • An increasing number prepay in the second year and still more prepay in the third year • From third to 20th year prepayment is remarkable stable • After 20th year it rises slightly every year until maturity • Across the nation more than 6% but fewer than 8% of FHA/VA loans prepay during this stable period • FHA mortality tables are not good predictors of other loan types because FHA/VA loans are assumable

35. Constant Prepayment Rate (CPR) Method • Assumes a constant percentage of the remaining principal in pool is prepaid each month for the remaining term of the mortgage • A 10% CPR means we can expect 10% of the remaining mortgage balance to be prepaid each and every future year • The CPR is based on the characteristics of the pool, current and expected future economic environment • Its advantage is simplicity and ease of application • It suffers from disadvantage that prepayments are treated as constant • Figure A1 illustrates the CPR

36. 6% CPR PREPAYMENTS FIGURE A1 12% 6% 0% YEARS FIGURE 1B 100% FHA PREPAYMENTS 12% 6% 0% 0 20 YEARS

37. Single Mortality Rate (SMM) Method • The CPR is annual prepayment rate. The annual rate is converted into monthly prepayment rate called the single monthly mortality rate (SMM) as follows SMM = 1 - (1 - CPR)1/12 (1) • if the CPR is 6% the corresponding SMM is: SMM = 1 - (1 -.06)1/12 = .005143 or .51%

38. Application of SMM to calculate prepayment • Prepayment for month t = SMM times beginning mortgage balance for month t minus scheduled principal for month t) • Mortgage has remaining balance of $50,525. With SMM of 0.5143% and the schedule principal payment of $67, the prepayment for the month t is = .005143 x ($50,523 - $67) = $260

39. PSA Standard Prepayment Method • Developed by Public Securities Association (PSA) • Benchmark is expressed as monthly series of annual CPR. • assumes that prepayment will be low for newly originated mortgages and will then speed up as the mortgage seasons • the PSA captures the advantages of both CPR and FHA methods • like the CPR, the PSA provides easy- to- calculate and easy- to- understand method • like the FHA, the PSA includes gradual increase in prepayment frequency

40. PSA Prepayment Curve. • The standard PSA prepayment curve, called 100% PSA is as follows: • it assumes 0.2% CPR for the first month. • the rate increases by 0.2% per month until the 30th month (top of the ramp) when it reaches a CPR of 6% per year . • it remains at 6% per year for the remaining stated maturity of the pool if t £ 30, CPR = (6%)(t)/30, if t > 30, CPR = 6% where t is the number of months since mortgage origination.

41. PSA Prepayment Curve (Contd) • Slower or faster prepayment are then stated as percent of standard PSA, e.g. 50% PSA (slower), 150% PSA (faster) • The PSA is now the standard for quoting prepayment rate in the industry • Figure 2 illustrates the PSA method

42. FIGURE 2 PSA RAMP & SPEEDS CPR SPEED 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% RAMP 200% PSA 100% PSA 50% PSA 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 SEASONING (years)

43. Converting PSA to CPR and CPR to SMM • Converting PSA to CPR during PSA Ramp period Monthly CPR = (PSA x .06 x n)/30 where n = mortgage loan age in months up 30 Example: mortgage age (n) = 5; PSA = 100% Monthly CPR = (100% x.06 x 5)/30 = 1% Converting CPR to SMM SMM = 1 - (1 - .01)1/12 = .000837 Thus 1% CPR = 0.0837% SMM; or 0.0837 of the mortgage pool principal balance is expected to prepay in month 5

44. Converting PSA to CPR and CPR to SMM Converting PSA to CPR after PSA Ramp period (months 31-360) CPR = PSA x .06 Example: PSA = 100% CPR = 100% x .06 = 6% Converting CPR to SMM SMM = 1 - (1 - CPR)1/12 SMM = 1 - (1 - .06)1/12 = .005143 6% CPR = 0.51% SMM; 0.51 of the pool principal balance is expected to prepay each month until maturity (31 to 360 months)

45. More Application of PSA • If we assume 150% PSA (i. e. one and one-half times faster than standard PSA) the SMM for month 5, will be computed as follows: for month 5: CPR = (150 x .06 x 5)/30 = 1.5% SMM = 1 - (1 -.015)1/12 = .001259 Note: it is the CPR that is a multiple not the SMM

46. Various Prepayment Issues to Consider • Assumable and Nonassumable mortgages • Wall Street projections and averages: most of the industry relies on the prepayment projections prepared by the major investment houses, available on-line as BLOOMBERG screens • Burnout: after a pool has stayed in refinancing range for some time prepayments decrease. This is call burnout • Seasoning: aging of mortgage loans and associated changes in prepayments • Path Dependence: future prepayment for a mortgage pool are dependent on that pool’s past prepayments, which in turn are dependent on the path interest rates have taken since pool’s origination (See figure 5 )

47. Factors Affecting Prepayment • Prevailing mortgage rate and market conditions • spread between contract rate and prevailing mortgage rate • path dependence • refinancing burnout • level of mortgage rates • housing turnover and affordability • Seasonal factors • home buying starts in spring and reaches its peak in summer • in fall and winter home buying declines

48. Factors affecting prepayment (contd). • Characteristics of the underlying mortgage Loans • contract rate • conventional versus FHA/VA • amount of seasoning • FRMs versus ARMs • pool factor • geographical location of underlying properties • General economic activity • general economic activity affects prepayment through its effects on housing turnover as growing economy increases personal income and opportunities for worker migration

49. What to remember about Prepayment Projections • The most important thing to remember about accurate long-term prepayment projections is that there aren’t any • prepayment projections remain inherently unreliable • Interest rates must be forecast • to reliably predict future prepayments, we must first reliably predict future interest rates • if you can consistently predict future interest rate movement bond futures is your calling not prepayment projections • Interest rates and prepayments change continually

50. Pricing of MPT’s • Estimate the necessary cash flow • Discount the estimated cash flow at an appropriate interest rate. • Problem: • cash flows of MPTs are not known with certainty. • appropriate discount rate is difficult to determine