The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype

1. SOFSEM   2013 :=  The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype Keith G Jeffery Science and Technology Facilities Council Harwell Oxford Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, OX11 0QX UK e-mail: keith.jeffery@stfc.ac.uk

2. SOFSEM   2013 :=  The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype Or the nebulous concept of CLOUD Computing Keith G Jeffery Science and Technology Facilities Council Harwell Oxford Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, OX11 0QX UK e-mail: keith.jeffery@stfc.ac.uk

3. STRUCTURE • Introduction – Who? • The Pervasiveness of ICT • A Short History of ICT • CLOUD Computing • Challenges • Conclusion

4. Rutherford Appleton Laboratory

5. Brief Biography • Degree and PhD in Geology • Led teams working on information systems • (R&D and services) • Director IT • 1100 servers, 360,000 users, 8Pb/year

6. Associations =: SOFSEM :=

7. EC CLOUDs Expert Group Report 1: Work 2010, Event January 2011 Published January 2011 http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/docs/cloud-report-final.pdf Report 2: Work 2011, Event May 2012 Published December 2012 http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/home_en.html

8. So? • This background gives you some idea of ‘where I’m coming from’ • Advanced research problems requiring ICT solutions • Research practical (yet leading edge) • But depends on ‘blue sky’ • International working – consultancy, reviewing, expert • Strategic thinking for / using blue sky research to plan roadmaps for ICT R&D • Design authority for large industrial-scale projects

9. So? • This background gives you some idea of ‘where I’m coming from’ • Advanced research problems requiring ICT solutions • Research practical (yet leading edge) • But depends on ‘blue sky’ • International working – consultancy, reviewing, expert • Strategic thinking for / using blue sky research to plan roadmaps for ICT R&D • Design authority for large industrial-scale projects • And what I am going to talk about is the ICT of the future that we shall all be using and/or developing • And the research challenges we have to overcome to make it happen

10. STRUCTURE • Introduction – Who? • The Pervasiveness of ICT • A Short History of ICT • CLOUD Computing • Challenges • Conclusion

11. Internet Users by Region

12. The ASIA Timebomb ASIA has largest population, largest number of users but relatively low penetration

13. Mobile Internet • Global mobile data traffic in 2011 (597 petabytes per month); • Global mobile data traffic grew 2.3-fold in 2011, more than doubling for the fourth year in a row; • The number of mobile-connected devices exceeded the world's population in 2012. • There will be over 10 billion mobile-connected devices in 2016; • The average mobile network connection speed (189 kbps in 2011) will exceed 2.9 megabits per second (Mbps) in 2016.

14. Mobile Traffic Growth

15. Mobile Traffic Sources

16. Non-user devices • The vast majority of computers – 98% - do not have traditional keyboard, mouse, screen • They are in cars, planes, washing machines, mobile phones • The most-used operating system is NOT Windows (or Unix / Linux) • Symbian in mobile phones  iOS  Android • or specialised operating systems (e.g. Contiki) in embedded systems

17. Social Context • The number of computers will vastly out-number humans on the planet very soon; • Everything will be computerised; • Sensor networks • Home, healthcare, environment, industrial processes, transport systems…. • Control systems • Industrial, transport, home (central heating)… • Just think what a neutron bomb in the atmosphere could do

18. So… • This is the ‘internet of things’ or ‘future internet’ • We need to : • Manage the huge numbers, sizes • Integrate the different kinds of systems • Into one environment leading to human decision-making • whether managing a business, shopping, media choice, social interaction • But there is a problem…in last 20 years • Data storage density increased ~10**18 • Processor power increased ~10**15 • BUT broadband capacity increased ~10**4 • This has implications for Information Systems Engineering! • In fact the requirement and limitations challenge the very basis of traditional computer science / ICT

19. Issues Elastic scalability costs, green Trust & security & privacy confidence Manageability else many administrators Accessability different modes of use Useability natural – fits with user model of the world Representativity of the real world

20. STRUCTURE • Introduction – Who? • The Pervasiveness of ICT • A Short History of ICT • CLOUD Computing • Challenges • Conclusion

21. Era 1 User request, programmer, punched cards, low-level program, mainframe

22. Era2 User interacts with in-house-written software in high level language on mainframe or mini. Network proprietary.

23. Era3 User interacts with off-the-shelf software on PC which interacts with in-house-written or purchased software on mainframe. Client-server to 3-tier. Network is (becoming) internet

24. Era4 User interacts with pre-written software on mobile device which interacts with pre-written software on mainframe. Network is internet WiFi, 3G, 4G… and using WWW

25. CLUSTERs & GRIDs Having virtualised the way the user interconnects to the application on the mainframe (Client-Server or 3-tier) the next logical step is to virtualise the mainframe • CLUSTER • Racked mainframe in-house • Homogeneity • Dynamically reassigned resources • GRID • Distributed racked mainframes • Heterogeneity • Dynamically reassigned resources • Mobile Code Which leads us towards CLOUD Computing

26. Software • Just to mention there has been a parallel evolution in: • Programming languages • Machine code, assembler, autocode, 3G (imperative), functional, 4G (declarative), scripting, mobile • Data modelling and management • Lists, hierarchies, networks (E-R), graphs (EER, ORM) • Software and systems design • Including human factors, adopting new modalities (mouse, gesture, speech, brain-connected) • Systems development methods (CASE to IDE) • HIPO, Jackson, SSADM, PRINCE (waterfall to spiral) • Object-orientation (aspect orientation)

27. STRUCTURE • Introduction – Who? • The Pervasiveness of ICT • A Short History of ICT • CLOUD Computing • Challenges • Conclusion

28. Definition cloud (klaʊd) an elastic execution environment of resources involving multiple stakeholders and providing a metered service at multiple granularities for a specified level of quality (of service). From report EC Cloud Computing Expert Group January 2011

29. Cynicism 2010 we recognized that all our processes were far too complex so we put them in the cloud

30. CLOUDs in use • Social networking • E.g. Facebook • Email systems • E.g. Gmail • Office systems • E.g. Google Docs • Shared storage • E.g. Google Drive • But also • Software / system development away from production systems • Experimental techniques (like a sandbox)

31. Gartner Hypecycle

32. Opportunity gap Gartner Hypecycle

33. The premise: Most compute centres utilise only 10% of capacity but need 100% for rare peaks of demand Cloud Computing • Very old idea • Use of cloud to depict a computing service or network • virtualisation • Now used for a new concept • Confused with • GRIDs • Autonomic computing • Utility Computing • Service-Oriented Architecture

34. Cloud Computing Hardware • A very large number of processors • Clustered in racks as blades • In one major computer centre • May be replicated for business continuity • With massive online storage • RAID for resilience • And excellent communications links • For access Economies of scale – both purchasing and operation Energy economies in location Staffing economies in location

35. Cloud Computing Customer View • Low cost of entry for customers • Device and location independence • Capacity at reasonable cost (performance, space) • Cloud Operator manages resource sharing balancing different peak loads • Elastically scalable as demand rises (or falls) from user • Security due to data centralisation and software centralisation • Sustainable and environmentally friendly – concentrated power •  it is a service and the user does not know or care from where, by whom, and how it is provided •  as long as the SLA (service level agreement) QoS (quality of service) is satisfied •  it is a ‘computing utility’ (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS….’XaaS’)

36. Ownership Cloud Computing • Private Cloud: in-house cluster run using CLOUD middleware; • Public Cloud: outsourced computing to commercial provider – proprietary; • Hybrid Cloud: linked Private and Public CLOUDs

37. Cloud Computing Offerings Acknowledgements to U Southampton

38. Cloud Computing How does it work • Multitenancy: Cloud resources (hardware) shared dynamically between customers; • Each customer application in its own virtual machine • Isolation for security, privacy • Allows scheduling with respect to shared resources • Application in one VM multithreaded with user data / profiles etc in other VMs

39. Cloud Computing What is it? • Is cluster computing • with the advantages that brings • With GRIDs features • Scheduling / resource allocation • self-* • ASP (Application Service Provider)

40. Cloud Computing • Obtains from GRIDs work: • resource sharing/scheduling • virtualisation of hardware and low-level software (under middleware) • resilience • trust, security, privacy • (more or less) self-* • Utility computing • Autonomic computing

41. Cloud Computing • Obtains from software/systems engineering: • Service-Oriented Architecture • with implications of interfaces, metadata, composition

42. Cloud Computing But the real novelty is… • Pay-As-You-Go (only for what you need); • Accounting for ICT used by departments in an organisation; • Private cloud • Public cloud • CAPEX to OPEX

43. Cloud Computing • Private Cloud Software : Eucalyptus • Private/Hybrid Cloud software: Open Nebula, • Open Stack • Commercial examples of Public Clouds: • Amazon EC2 Elastic Compute Cloud • Google (Engine for Apps; Connect for Office) • Microsoft Azure • IBM SmartCLOUD • (note all needed massive resource for infrequent use so could sell of excess capacity) • Note Thomas J Watson in late fifties: • “total number of computers required in the world is five” • are we reaching this goal?

44. Cloud Problems • Inefficient to move data to the cloud • Remember earlier comments about networking bandwidth • Hard to realise the technology - elasticity • Despite SLA/QoS guarantees some concerns: • Performance • Security/trust/privacy • Especially transnational

45. Cloud Studies • Above the Clouds: A Berkeley View of Cloud Computing • http://www.eecs.berkeley.edu/Pubs/TechRpts/2009/EECS-2009-28.pdf

46. Cloud Quotes • The interesting thing about Cloud Computing is that we’ve redefined Cloud Computing to include everything that we already do. . . . I don’t understand what we would do differently in the light of Cloud Computing other than change the wording of some of our ads. • Larry Ellison, quoted in the Wall Street Journal, September 26, 2008 • It’s stupidity. It’s worse than stupidity: it’s a marketing hype campaign. Somebody is saying this is inevitable — and whenever you hear somebody saying that, it’s very likely to be a set of businesses campaigning to make it true. • Richard Stallman, quoted in The Guardian, September 29, 2008

47. Hype? • Architectural model: outsourcing – to large datacentres - has been around as long as computing • Business Model: So has ‘pay as you go’ • The difference now is • Autonomicity for management (including elastic scalability) • SOA (Service Oriented Architecture)

48. PaaS IaaS SaaS Elasticity Private Characterisation TYPES Reliability Public Virtualisation Hybrid FEATURES MODES … … Cost Reduction Local Cloud Systems Cloud Systems LOCALITY Remote BENEFITS Ease of use Distributed … STAKEHOLDERS COMPARES TO Service-oriented Architecture Users Adopters Internet of Services … Resellers Grid Providers

49. Terminology • Types of Clouds • IaaS; PaaS; SaaS • Deployment Types (Usage) • Private, Public and Hybrid Clouds • Community Cloud and Special Purpose Clouds • Cloud Environment Roles • Cloud Providers: offer cloud systems • Cloud Resellers or Aggregators: aggregate platforms from cloud providers • Cloud Adopters or Software / Services Vendors: use cloud platforms to enhance their services • Cloud Consumers or Users: make direct use of the cloud capabilities • Cloud Tool Providers: provide supporting tools for using / improving cloud environments

50. Characteristics