1 / 39

Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser.

Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Formalities. Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice; consult your tax or legal advisor regarding your particular situation.

ariana-dyer
Télécharger la présentation

Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser.

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser.

  2. Formalities Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice; consult your tax or legal advisor regarding your particular situation. The indices mentioned in this seminar are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information contained in this commentary has been obtained from sources that are reliable. This presentation is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.

  3. Failed Predictions Prediction: “No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble!” – Jim Cramer Reality: Five days later, JPMorgan Chase took over the firm, wiping out shareholders. Source: Investment News

  4. Failed Predictions Prediction: “Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are fundamentally sound; they’re not in danger of going under.” - Rep. Barney Frank Reality: Two months later, the mortgage giants were forced into conservatorship. Source: Investment News

  5. Failed Predictions Prediction: T. Boone Pickens in 2008 predicted that the price of oil — then at $135 a barrel — would hit $150 by the end of 2008. Reality: By late December, the price of crude had fallen below $40. Source: Investment News

  6. Failed Predictions Prediction: “I don’t see [subprime mortgage market troubles] imposing a serious problem. I think it’s going to be largely contained.” - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Reality: He was wrong. Really wrong. Source: Investment News

  7. Agenda • 2013 So Far • Factors Affecting the Stock Market and Economy • Bond Prices, Interest Rates, and The Federal Reserve • Forecasts (Not Predictions) for 2013

  8. The First Half The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance. Jun 28 Close1,606.28 +12.6% Dec 28 Close1,402.43

  9. ORIGINAL FORECASTS Source: Barrons.com 1,606 (12.6% growth) Revised 1,686 (16% growth) as of 7/31/13

  10. COMPARING RETURNS Source: Yahoo Finance. Disclosures on following slide. YTD is up until 6/31/2013.

  11. DISCLOSURES The indices mentioned on the previous slide are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All data is sourced from Yahoo Finance and MSCI unless otherwise noted. S&P 500 measures the performance of large capitalization U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-value-weighted index of 500 stocks that are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. The weightings make each company’s influence on the Index performance directly proportional to that company’s market value. S&P 500 Growth and S&P 500 Value measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in large cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the S&P 500 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style “factors” to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those S&P 500 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than average growth orientation. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive. Russell 2000 measures the performance of small capitalization U.S. stocks. The Russell 2000 is a market-value-weighted index of the 2,000 smallest stocks in the broad-market Russell 3000 Index. These securities are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2000 Growth measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in small cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the Russell 2000 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style “factors” to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those Russell 2000 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than-average growth orientation. Securities in the Value Index generally have lower price-to-book and price-earnings ratios than those in the Growth Index. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive. MSCI EAFE is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of the developed stock markets of Europe, Australasia, and the Far East. MSCI Emerging Markets is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of equity markets in 21 emerging countries around the world. Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (formerly the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index) includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year.

  12. Comparing Hypothetical Returns This is a hypothetical example only, and is not intended to represent any actual investment. Indexes are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The 50% Stock / 50% Bond blend is a hybrid of 50% S&P 500 and 50% Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data Source: Yahoo Finance. Standard & Poors 500: 4.7% Barclays Agg. Bond Index: 6.1% 50/50 Blend: 5.4%

  13. Risk Tolerance

  14. Agenda • 2013 So Far • Factors Affecting the Stock Market and Economy

  15. Healthy Corporations Sources: Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, BEA, FactSet J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/13.

  16. Healthy Corporations Sources: Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, BEA, FactSet J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/13.

  17. Housing Market Source: Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13.

  18. Housing Market Sources: National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor’s, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13.

  19. Housing Market Sources: National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor’s, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13.

  20. Consumers Source: BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *2Q13 household debt service ratio and household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Data are as of 6/30/13.

  21. Unemployment Rate Civilian Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13.

  22. Unemployment Rate Employment – Total Private PayrollTotal Job Gain/Loss (thousands) Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13.

  23. Government Spending **Measured at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Sources: United States Commerce Department, online.wsj.com

  24. Volatility Source: Yahoo Finance as of 06/28/2013. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is a popular measure of the volatility of S&P 500 Index options. A high value corresponds to a more volatile market and therefore more costly options, which can be used to defray risk from this volatility by selling options. Often referred to as the fear index, it represents one measure of the market’s expectation of volatility over the next 30-day period. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. S&P Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating 08-05-11 Flash Crash 05-06-10

  25. Periods of Recovery

  26. Agenda • 2013 So Far • Factors Affecting the Stock Market and Economy • Bond Prices, Interest Rates, and The Federal Reserve

  27. FORECASTS: FED FUNDS TARGET RATE Historical Forecast Source: BLS.gov, online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate. Survey conducted June 7-11, 2013. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year.

  28. Bonds and Interest Rates Hypothetical example for illustration only. Not intended to reflect any actual investment. Price Movements of a Hypothetical Bond 5% Interest Rate | Bond Price $1,000 5.5% Interest Rate | Bond Price $900 4.5% Interest Rate | Bond Price $1,100

  29. Bonds and Interest Rates Source: Federal Reserve as of 06/30/2013. Sept. 30, 198115.84% Rising Interest RatesBond Bear Market Falling Interest RatesBond Bull Market June 30, 2013 2.49% Jan. 2, 1962 4.06%

  30. Agenda • 2013 So Far • Factors Affecting the Stock Market and Economy • Bond Prices, Interest Rates, and The Federal Reserve • Forecasts (Not Predictions) for 2013

  31. Since the 2007 Peak The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance. +3% +135%

  32. History Lesson Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data shown in log scale to best illustrate long-term index patterns. P/E ratios shown at price peaks and troughs use trailing four quarters of reported earnings and are show as a one year average. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Data are as of 6/30/13.

  33. HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE This chart assumes a $40,000/year withdrawal for income. S&P 500 annual return assume dividends included. Numbers have been rounded. Source: Yahoo Finance.

  34. History Lesson “In the 68 years beginning with 1946, the S&P 500 index has risen 10 percent or more, 23 times (during the first half of the year), according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices. During those 23 years, the market rose the second half of the year 19 times. Eleven of those years, or nearly half, the S&P 500 rose at least 10 percent the second half of the year.” Source: Steve Rothwell, The Associated Press Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

  35. FORECAST – S&P 500 Sources: CNBC, Business Insider, Bespoke Investment Group 1,686 (16% growth) as of 7/31/13

  36. ANNUAL GDP – HISTORICAL & FORECAST Source: BLS.gov, online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate. Survey conducted June 7-11, 2013. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year.

  37. FORECAST – U.S. ECONOMY Is the risk to your 2013 growth forecast more to the upside or the downside? June 2013 Survey December 2012 Survey Source: online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted monthly.

  38. FORECAST Source: The views displayed on this slide represent the opinions of Oppenheimer as of 6/30/13, are subject to change based on subsequent developments, are not intended as investment advice, and are not intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment.

  39. UNTIL NEXT TIME

More Related