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Russia on the way

Russia on the way. Recovery developed into stable growth… …with underlying structural changes …properly reflected June 2002 figures exceeded last year’s Unprecedented foreign reserves (US$40B). Sources: Goskomstat, Russian investment banks consensus estimates, IMF, EBRD, CBR.

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Russia on the way

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  1. Russia on the way • Recovery developed into stable growth… • …with underlying structural changes • …properly reflected • June 2002 figures exceeded last year’s • Unprecedented foreign reserves (US$40B) Sources: Goskomstat, Russian investment banks consensus estimates, IMF, EBRD, CBR

  2. Telecom Services: General Sources: Ministry of Telecommunications, Alcatel Russia Market Research estimations, J’son & Partners, IDC

  3. Telecom Services: Segments • Mobile and Internet are the main growth sources, however the latter is still very small in absolute terms, limited by PC (or other terminals) density

  4. Coming Technologies • Newest technologies are coming to the Russian market • ADSL – 7Klines already installed (6KLines in Moscow) • DWDM line already installed: Moscow – St.P • UMTS successful trials conducted by all three major GSM operators • BPON network is deployed in the Moscow region • But progress is limited by lack of demand: • ADSL is too expensive and copper is not unbundled • Transnational capacity is still available • UMTS demand and license policy are unclear • FTTx technologies are probably currently too expensive

  5. Key Russian players: mostly private • Svyazinvest (75%-1 Russian State, 25%+1 George Soros led consortium) • Controlling stakes in the absolute majority of fixed regional incumbents • Sistema (privately owned, diversified investments in finance, insurance, retail, manufacturing, oil, telecoms, etc.) • Investments in largest Russian mobile operator MTS (42% ownership) • Investment in Moscow incumbent (51% ownership) • Alfa Group (privately owned, diversified investments in finance, insurance, retail, manufacturing, oil, telecoms, etc.) • Investments in the second largest Russian mobile operator VimpleCom • Investment in the Russia’s largest CLEC – Golden Telecom • Telecominvest (privately owned) • Investment in the third largest Russian mobile operator Megafon • Number of CLECs in St.P

  6. Key foreign players: playing second roles • Deutsche Telekom – 40% shareholder (2nd largest) in MTS • Telenor – major investor in VimpelCom • Telia + Sonera – major investor in Megafon

  7. Conclusion • Despite of worldwide economic and telecom turmoil, Russia for three last years is one of the most attractive markets • Telecommunications for both businesses and public are one of the basic needs for the success in current worldwide competition • Appearance of large and financially viable operators allowed to start sizeable long-term investments and projects • Russian private capital see telecom market as major source of cash and also as a vehicle for international ambitions • Foreign companies are cautious investors, playing secondary role and busy with their own problems at home

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