PART I Challenges

1. PART I Challenges 3 Winning as a Team 團隊致勝

2. Winning as a Team If complexity and variability are what make supply chain management a hard game to master, then the best tactics are those that lead to simplicity and stability. Indeed, most of the innovations in supply chain management over the past 20 years have attempted to both simplify and stabilize the flow of demand, supply, and cash. These innovations include the extension of just-in- time manufacturing techniques out to the supply chain, plus a variety of specialized programs for managing the replenishment of retail inventories. Unfortunately, the gains produced by these programs have often come at the expense of other links in the chain, and that doesn't improve the competitiveness of the chain as a whole. A brief look at game theory reveals why these programs are falling short and points the way to the winning strategy: integrating the members of the supply chain into a smoothly functioning team by making sure that every member's win contributes to the success of all the others. 倘若供應鏈管理不易精通是因為其複雜性(complexity)與變異性 (variability)，那麼最好的戰術就是設法讓系統變得單純(simplicity)與穩定 (stability)。的確，在過去20年間，大部分的供應鏈管理創新，都在企圖讓 需求(demand)、供應(supply)與帳款(cash)的流程可以簡單，而且穩定地進 行。這些創新的方法包括延伸及時制(JIT)生產技術於供應鏈上，以及數種 管理零售存貨補充的推動方案(programs)。不幸的是，這些推動方案所帶 來的收益常造成供應鏈其他連結(links)費用的增加，而無法提升整體供應 鏈的競爭力。本章簡單以「賽局理論」(game theory)探討，可以發現這些 推動方案有所不足之原因，並指出致勝策略之道：整合供應鏈成員成為一 個運作順暢的團隊，確保每位成員的獲勝會帶給其他成員的成功。

3. JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案) JIT has transformed manufacturing Of the many efforts to improve the flow of raw materials into production facilities, most have involved extending the reach of the just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing method upstream toward suppliers. One of the key elements of the JIT approach is eliminating excess inventory throughout the production process by timing the movement of materials to each workstation to arrive just at the moment they are needed for the next operation. This practice minimizes inventories throughout the production process, helping manufacturing companies reduce holding costs, minimize obsolescence, and improve their return on assets. These benefits have led to the widespread adoption of JIT throughout industries that use repetitive production techniques. 及時制改變了製造方式 在改善物料到生產設施間流程的許多努力中，常見的做法是 將及時制生產方法(just-in-time(JIT)manufacturing)向上延伸至供應 商端。及時制(JIT)方法的關鍵要素之一是，藉由排定「投料」到各 工作站地時間，讓物料根據下一個作業(next operation)所需適時地 送達，以減少生產過程中多餘的存貨。這樣的做法可以讓製程中的 物料存貨降到最低，讓生產工廠降低存貨持有成本，減少老舊存 貨，並且改善資產報酬率。由於有這些優點，使得及時制生產方法 廣泛地被應用於重複性生產技術的產業中(repetitive production techniques)。

4. JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案) Frequent shipments reduce total inventory Of the three inventories held in production facilities, the work-in-Process (WIP) inventory is most easily reduced using JIT. But WIP is usually the smallest and least expensive of the inventories, and tackling the other two requires changing the way suppliers deliver raw materials and customers receive finished goods. In order to bring down the inventory of raw materials, JIT producers work with their suppliers to switch over from large shipments of materials that go to central receiving facilities to small, frequent shipments that go directly from trucks to the factory floor (Figure 3.1). The change is a dramatic one, often taking a company from monthly orders and shipments to multiple shipments a day with precisely timed arrivals. Most JIT producers have a similar program on the outbound side, using small, frequent deliveries to minimize their inventory of finished goods. 頻率高的貨件運送可以降低總存貨 在生產設施所持有的三種存貨類型中，在製品(WIP)最容易運用及時制方 法來降低存貨水準。然而，在製品存貨通常是其中占最小比率也花費最少 的部分，不過解決另外兩種存貨(原物料、製成品)問題必須改變供應商交 運原物料與交付顧客製成品的方式。為了降低原物料存貨，及時制生產工 廠與他們的供應商合作，將物料由大批量送到工廠中央物料倉庫的方式， 改為小批量高頻度直接由卡車送到生產線上(factory floor)的方式(見圖 3.1)。這是個相當巨大的改變，通常會將公司的月訂單／月交貨模式改變 為嚴格到貨時間要求之1日數次配送模式。大部分及時制生產工廠對於外 向物流(outbound logistics)也有類似做法，即採用小批量高頻度的配送以降 低製成品存貨水準。

5. JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案) Just-in-Time Supply

6. JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案) JIT requires close partnerships with suppliers As soon as manufacturers begin to make these kinds of changes. JIT quickly expands from a production initiative to a much broader program that requires systematic changes in supply chain management. Toyota, the company that pioneered the JIT method in the 1970s, was keenly aware of this aspect of its program, and it worked closely with its suppliers to convert their operations to JIT as well, precisely coordinating the flow of goods from suppliers to production plants. In order to support the close relationship required by this new kind of production, Toyota used a uniquely Japanese form of joint partnership, called a keiretsu, with its key suppliers. In Toyota's case, the keiretsu involved taking a 20 to 50 equity position in each supplier and replacing 20 of its key executives with Toyota personnel. 及時制要求緊密的供應商夥伴關係 在製造廠陸續進行這些改變後，及時制很快地由生產推動方案擴展到更大 範圍的推動方案，要求供應鏈管理的系統性變革。豐田公司(Toyota)，在 1970年代發展出及時制，很清楚及時制的特性，並緊密地與其上游供應商 合作，將供應商作業也轉變成及時制，精準地調節從供應商到生產線的物 料流程。為了支援新生產方案所需的緊密關係，豐田公司(Toyota)與其主 要供應商間採用了獨特日本型態的聯合夥伴關係(joint partnership)，稱之 為企業團(keiretsu)。以豐田案例來說，「企業團」的做法涉及持有供應商 20%～50%的股東權益，以豐田公司人員替換供應商20%的主要高階主 管。

7. JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案) Simpler ordering reduces complexity JIT practices offer important insights into how supply chains can be improved. Although the apparent focus of JIT is on reducing inventory, the true spirit of the method is a systematic pursuit of quality, one aspect of which is eliminating any unnecessary complexity. In the case of supply chain transactions, this philosophy has led to a much needed streamlining of the order-shipment-payment cycle. Instead of accumulating large orders mixing many different kinds of materials, producers place many orders for individual materials, often paying for these materials on delivery rather than accumulating lump sums. In addition, a great deal of documentation has been stripped away. For example, traditional orders are often eliminated in favor of continuously updated delivery schedules, and billing documents may be eliminated altogether. One of the great contributions of JIT to supply chain management is to provide a clear demonstration of just how simple the basic flows can become. 簡單訂購方式降低了複雜度 及時制(JIT)提供許多關於供應鏈如何改善的重要洞察力。雖然及時制主要 著重在降低存貨，但這個方法的真正精神還是在於，以系統化方法追求品 質的提升，其中一個目標就是消除任何不必要的複雜性。在供應鏈交易的 情況中，這個哲學更須要求「訂購－貨件運送－付款」週期(order- shipment-payment)的改善與順暢化。取代累積大量且訂購多種物料的訂單 方式，生產商依個別物料下不同的訂單，經常收料後即付款而不會積壓很 久再一次支付。此外，很多文件也不再需要。例如，傳統式訂單常被消 除，改用持續更新的配送排程表(delivery schedules)，而此同時，帳款文 件(billing documents)可能也不再需要。及時制方法論對於供應鏈管理的一 個主要貢獻，就是提供一個清晰的示範：基本流程可以是非常簡單的。

8. JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案) Consistent performance reduces variability Along with reducing complexity, the JIT philosophy of quality also seeks to reduce variability in every stage of production. To this end, each operation is analyzed, refined, and rehearsed until it can be completed both quickly and consistently. In the case of supply chains, this level of rigor not only accelerates the movement of goods, it also adds an unprecedented level of precision to deliveries. This precision allows inventories of raw materials to be reduced to a fraction of their normal levels without causing shutdowns on the line. 一致性績效表現可以降低變異性 除了降低複雜性外，及時制品質哲學也尋求降低各個生產階段的變異性 (variability)。為達此目標，每一項作業都要加以分析(analyzed)、修正 (refined)與演練(rehearsed)，直至該作業可以快速且一致地完成。就供應鏈 來看，這麼嚴格的要求不僅加速貨物移動的速度，也達到前所未有的交貨 精確度。這樣的精確度使物料存貨可以降低其原有水準，也不會造成「斷 線」(shutdowns on the line)的情形。

9. JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案) JIT can make supply chains fragile Of course, not every form of variability can be eliminated, and herein lies the downside of JIT: It can make supply chains so fragile that any interruption in the flow of supplies brings the entire chain to a halt. Toyota learned this in 1997 when a fire at one of its suppliers shut down Toyota's production lines for an entire week. The following year, strikes in two GM parts plants led to the shutdown of almost all of the company's assembly plants within a matter of days. A year later, seven DaimlerChrysler plants and three GM plants were forced into half-shifts when flooding in one supplier's plant created a shortage of a single part. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, many plants in the United States had to be closed due to breakdowns in the transportation system. Ford, for example, shut down five North American plants due to parts shortages, many of them due to delays in bringing trucks across the Canadian border. 及時制可能會使供應鏈更脆弱 當然，不是所有變異性的型態都可以被消除，及時制(JIT)的弱點在於：及 時制可能會讓供應鏈變得非常脆弱，以致於當物品供應流程中發生任何干 擾時，整個供應鏈會陷於停擺。1997年，豐田公司(Toyota)在一次發生在 其供應商的火災中學到教訓，當時讓豐田公司生產線不得不停工整個星 期。次年，兩個通用汽車(GM)零件工廠的罷工事件在幾天內幾乎使所有 公司組裝廠停擺。隨即1年後，七個戴姆勒克萊斯勒(DaimlerChrysler)工廠 與三個通用汽車工廠，因一個供應商遭洪水侵襲，無法供應某種零件而被 迫以半天班(half-shifts)的方式生產。在2001年911恐怖攻擊事件之後，因 運輸系統的癱瘓，許多美國工廠都必須停工。例如，福特汽車(Ford)， 因零件在通過加拿大邊境時發生延遲而造成短缺，必須暫時關閉五個北美 的工廠。

10. JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案) Manufacturers are now cautious about JIT Shutdowns such as these can quickly wipe out the savings associated with reduced inventory levels. For a large manufacturer, having a plant shut down can cost as much as $10,000 a minute. Given this kind of financial impact, many firms that adopted JIT wholeheartedly are now rethinking their position and taking a more conservative approach. Honda, for one, now has a policy of maintaining dual suppliers for all its raw materials. Ford, while reaffirming its commitment to its JIT program in the wake of the terrorist attacks, immediately began developing plans to stockpile engines and other key parts at some U.S. plants. 製造商現在非常謹慎採用及時制 類此斷線停工狀況可以很快地侵蝕掉降低存貨水準所帶來的效益。對大型 製造商而言，停工所帶來的損失可以高達1分鐘1萬美元。由於有這樣的財 務面衝擊，許多熱切全心導入及時制的企業，現在開始重新省思他們的定 位，並且採用一種較保守的對應方式。本田汽車(Honda)，其申一例，現 在採用雙供應商政策以確保物料的供應無虞。福特汽車雖在恐怖攻擊後仍 重申貫徹及時制，不過卻開始計劃在數個美國工廠儲備引擎與一些關鍵零 組件。

11. JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應方案) Simplicity and consistency remain key goals Even with appropriate risk management, JIT isn't the right approach for every supply chain. It doesn't work in job shops, which do not use production lines, and it's not relevant to process manufacturing. Even within its natural domain, repetitive production, it's not a good choice for low-volume products or for products with uncertain demand. But these are limitations, not defects; for the right kind of production environment, JIT can lead to dramatic improvements. More important, however, is the way the JIT effort illustrates how much can be done to reduce complexity and variability in supply chains. JIT's emphasis on simplicity and consistency can be used to advantage at every link of the chain, regardless of whether other aspects of the technique are employed. 簡單化與一致化仍為主要目標 即使有適當的風險管理機制，及時制不見得適用於所有的供應鏈。它並不 適合包件生產模式(job shops)，這種模式是沒有生產線的；它也不適用於 程序型生產模式(process manufacturing)。即使在其最適用的領域──重複 生產模式(repetitive production)上，它也不適用於少量或不確定性高的產 品。但這些只是限制，不能說是缺點。用對生產環境的話，及時制可以帶 來可觀的改善。然而，更重要的是，投入及時制後所顯示大幅降低供應鏈 複雜性與變異性所產生的效果。無論是否要使用及時制的其他特色，及時 制在簡單化(simplicity)與一致化(consistency)上之重視，即可為供應鏈的每 個連結帶來優勢。

12. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) Retail replenishment is a tough problem The second major class of supply chain programs deals with the distribution side, and is concerned with replenishing retail inventories Historically, the link between retail stores and their immediate suppliers has been a difficult juncture in the supply chain. In the past, retail inventories were managed by independent storeowners, who often lacked sophisticated tools for forecasting demand and planning replenishment. Yet this is precisely the point in the chain that can be the hardest to manage because it is the first point to feel the impact of changing consumer preferences. It is also the point where the chain becomes visible to the consumer, so it's critical to manage it well. If the desired product isn't on the shelf when a consumer walks in to buy it, even the most perfect sequence of supply operations is a failure. 零售補貨是個困難的問題 第二類主要的供應鏈方案處理的是配銷端的活動，是關於補充零售存貨的 機制。從歷史角度來看，零售店與他們直接供應商的‘連結，始終是供應 鏈中的一個問題點。過去，零售存貨是由個別獨立的店鋪所控管，他們通 常缺乏可協助預測需求與規劃補貨的精良工具。不過，這也可能是供應鏈 中最難以管理的設施點，因為零售店是位處於感受顧客偏好改變影響的第 一個據點。零售店也是消費者直接接觸供應鏈的那個設施據點，因此，妥 善管理零售點是很重要的工作。如果顧客走進店來想要購買時，需要的產 品卻不在貨架上，那即便是擁有最完美的供應作業也是個失敗。

13. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) Early efforts shifted control of inventory The first generation of retail replenishment programs was based on shifting the control of inventories (Figure 3.2). In the traditional arrangement, retailers manage their own inventories and replenish them as they see fit. The problem with this arrangement is that producers are often in a better position than retailers to track emerging patterns in demand. In addition, producers can remove cost and uncertainty from this link in the chain by centralizing control of the replenishment process. One way to leverage these advantages is consignment, in which producers retain both ownership and control over inventories of their products at a retailer's site. Consignment has proved to be an effective tool for selling products that retailers might not be willing to carry on conventional terms, but it's not the first choice for producers because they have to wait longer before they get paid for their products. 早期努力著重於存貨控制權的移轉 第一代的零售補貨方案著重在存貨控制權的移轉(見圖3.2)。傳統做法是， 零售商管理自己的存貨，並且根據他們認為的適合數量來補貨。這種做法 的問題是，生產者往往處在優於零售商的位置來追蹤正在浮現的需求型 態。此外，生產者可藉由補貨程序之中央控制方式來移除連結上的成本與 不確定性。一個平衡這些優勢的方法是寄售(consignment)，即委託生產者 保有商品的所有權與控制零售端的存貨。對一些零售商可能不願意以傳統 交易條款銷售的商品，供應商／生產者寄售的做法已經被證實是個有效的 方式。不過這種做法對生產者而言，不會是第一個選擇方案，因為他必須 等候更長的時間來取得貨款。

14. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) Early efforts shifted control of inventory Inventory Management Relationships

15. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) transfers ownership but not control A more recent development, vendor-managed inventory (VMI),is shown in the middle row of Figure 3.2. The innovative aspect of VMI is the way it separates control from ownership, both of which usually transfer at the same time.In VMI, a producer receives continuous updates on a retailer's inventory level and replenishes it as needed, with the retailer taking ownership of the goods on delivery. This gives producers better visibility of sales of their products, helping them anticipate demand and better plan supply.The retailers benefit because they no longer have to track inventory levels or place orders for products under a VMI program. They also save money because they usually need less inventory, sometimes as little as half of what they would otherwise keep in stock. VMI移轉的是所有權但不是控制權 最近的一個發展為供應商管理存貨(vendor-managed inventory, VMI)方案， 參考圖3.2的中間部分。一般而言，所有權與控制權的移轉是同時發生的，VMI的創新觀點則是將所有權與控制權分開來處理。VMI的做法 是，生產商接收到零售商存貨狀況的連續更新資訊，並且負責補充零售商 所需；而零售商則在產品配交給顧客時取得所有權。這樣的做法讓生產商 可以更清楚地掌握產品的銷售狀況，協助他們預測需求並做好供應的規 劃。而零售商則因無須追蹤存貨水準與無須執行訂貨作業而獲益。雙方也 節省了成本，因為需要的存貨通常較少，有時甚至雙方持有存貨為原來一 半的水準。

16. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) Quick response applies JIT to the retail link In addition to VMI, several other programs have been developed to smooth the flow of goods through retail stores. One of the earliest was the quick response (QR) program, an effort on the part of the apparel industry in the 1980s to combine some of the techniques of JIT with technologies for monitoring inventory levels in real time. As shown in Figure 3.3, electronic point of sale (POS) systems automatically captured data about clothing sales as they occurred, then transmitted this data to producers using electronic data interchange (EDI) connections. Producers responded with daily shipments of pre-tagged items that could go directly from their trucks to the selling floor. 快速回應將及時制應用在零售連結上 除了供應商管理存貨(VMII)之外；還有一些已經發展出來的方案，可以讓 貨物流通到零售店的過程更為順暢。早期方法之一就是快速回應(quick response, QR)，為1980年代服飾業所提出，致力於結合及時制(JIT)方法與 即時監控存貨狀況的技術。如圖3.3所示，當衣服銷售發生時，電子銷售 時點(electronic point of sale, POS)系統自動擷取銷售資料，然後以電子資 料交換(electronic data interchange, EDI)方式傳送電子資料給生產商。生產 商將預先貼好標籤的產品，以每日出貨的方式由卡車直接配送至銷售場 所。

17. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) Quick response applies JIT to the retail link The Quick Response Program

18. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) Continuous replenishment added VMI In the late 1980s, the apparel industry rolled out an extension of the QR program known as continuous replenishment (CR). As shown in Figure 3.4, this program incorporated VMI for better inventory control, and it introduced joint forecasting so that producers and retailers could pool their understanding of consumer demand to better predict future sales. Another important aspect of this program was that a replenishment agreement acted as a standing purchase commitment. This allowed members of the program to eliminate individual purchase orders altogether, further streamlining the replenishment process. 持續補貨加入VMI機制 在1980年代後期，服飾產業進一步延伸QR的做法成為持續補貨 (continuous replenishment, CR)。如圖3.4所示，持續補貨結合了VMI 機制 以提供更好的存貨管理，它更導入聯合預測(joint forecasting)方法，讓生 產商與零售商可以整合對於顧客需求的瞭解，以更準確預測未來的銷售 額。這個方案的另一個要點是，一個持續補貨協議猶如一項有效的採購承 諾(standing purchase commitment)。這可以讓成員間均去除所有的個別訂 單，並進一步使補貨程序順暢化。

19. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) Continuous replenishment added VMI Retail Replenishment Programs

20. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) ECR added category management In 1993, the grocery industry launched its own version of continuous replenishment, calling it the efficient consumerresponse (ECR) program. ECR's major contribution was the addition of category management, which organizes promotion and replenishment activities around groups of products that consumers view as roughly equivalent in satisfying their needs. This addition helps grocery stores determine the best mix of products to put on their shelves to make sure their customers‘ needs are met even if there are occasional shortages. This program also encourages the use of activity-based costing (described in Chapter 9) to determine the profitability of each product category. 有效消費者回應加入品類管理機制 1993年，日用品雜貨產業(the grocery industry)開啟該產業自己版本的持續 補貨系統，也就是所謂的有效消費者回應(efficient Consumer response, ECR)陣ECR的主要貢獻在於加入品類管理(category management)機制，可 以組織消費者視為同類產品的促銷與補貨活動。這個附加功能讓日用品雜 貨產業可以決定上架的最佳產品組合，即使有時部分產品發生缺貨仍可以 確保顧客的需求得以滿足。這個方案也促成作業基礎成本制之應用(參照 第9章)，以決定每一產品類別的獲利能力。

21. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) programs attack complexity and variability Like the JIT programs described earlier, retail replenishment programs reflect a continuing effort to simplify and stabilize supply chain flows. For example, the elimination of orders in continuous replenishment removed a major source of time and cost that added no value to the end consumer. These programs also pioneered important techniques for coping with variability, including some that aren't employed in the JIT effort. Most notably, the use of real time data on sales allows retailers to respond quickly to variations in consumer buying patterns, and the addition of joint forecasting allows retailers to prepare for some of these shifts before they hit the stores. 這些方案均在對付複雜性與變異性 如前述及時制(JIT)般，零售補貨方案反映出簡化與穩定供應鏈流程的持續 努力。例如，持續補貨方案消除訂單之舉，移除了無法增加終端顧客價值 的時間與成本的一個主要來源。這些方案也開啟一些應付變異性的重要技 術，包括一些及時制(JIT)所未採用的技術。最顯著的是，銷售資料即時運 用可以讓零售商快速回應顧客購買型態的變動，並且如再加上聯合預測， 可以讓零售商在顧客購買型態變動對商店造成衝擊之前，預先做好準備。

22. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) CPFR is the most ambitious program yet The most ambitious replenishment program to date is collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR), a multi-industry effort that was formalized in 1998 (Figure 3.5). Although CPFR is not a direct extension of any of the preceding programs, it draws on the experience gained with all three. Being the first clean-sheet design since the commercialization of the Internet, CPFR abandons EDI and private networks in favor of Internet communication. In addition to the direct communication of real time data, trading partners use centralized information servers to view and update shared plans and forecasts. CPFR是迄今企圖心最大的方案 迄今最具企圖心的補貨方案是協同規劃、預測與補貨(collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment, CPFR)，是1998年形成的一個跨產 業力量(見圖3.5)。雖然CPFR並不是任一前述系統的直接延伸，但是它吸 取所有三者之經驗(all three：JIT, QR, ECR)。因為是從網際網路商用化後 的第一個全新設計，協作規劃、捨棄電子資料交換(EDI)與私有網路，而 採用網際網路溝通技術。除使用即時資料進行直接通訊外，商業夥伴間採 用中央伺服器存放可供檢視及更新的共享計畫與預測資訊。

23. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) CPFR is the most ambitious program yet The CPFER Program

24. Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方) Adoption of CPFR has just begun In short, the CPPR program relies on advanced, Internet-based tools to pool information about demand and supply, allowing trading partners to coordinate their inventory decisions and smooth the flow of goods across the chain. The use of such tools offers important advantages, but it also requires companies to make substantial investments in new technologies. Another obstacle is cultural: CPFR requires companies to share highly detailed information about their operations, and many are reluctant to do that. CPFR is beginning to win converts, but it's too soon to tell how widely the program will be embraced. CPFR之採納才剛開始 簡言之，CPFR依賴先進、以網際網路為根基的工具管理供需資訊，使交 易夥伴間可以協調存貨決策，並讓供應鏈中的商品流程更為平順。這類工 具之應用提供了重要的優勢，但是它也需要耗費鉅額投資在新技術的引進 上；另外一個障礙是文化。CPFR要求企業問分享非常詳細的作業資訊， 而很多企業不願意這樣做。CPFR已逐漸贏得一些支持者，但目前還太早 去預測究竟這個方案是否會被廣為採納。

25. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) All the programs have declared victory All of the programs described in this chapter were introduced with great fanfare, and there are solid statistics to demonstrate that each of them has succeeded in reducing inventories and accelerating the flow of goods across the chain. These glowing reviews are bolstered by continuing reports in the business press about the remarkable economies produced over the past two decades through the relentless reduction of inventory. There's just one problem with these’ impressive results: They may not be real. Last year, a team of researchers at Ohio State University conducted a comprehensive analysis of the inventory levels reported by U.S. corporations over the past 20 years, and they reached a startling conclusion: The Great Inventory Reduction of the late twentieth century never happened. 所有方案均宣稱獲勝 本章描述的所有方案均在很高的期望下被引進產業，而且也有具體統計數 字顯示，每個方案均成功地在供應鏈中降低存貨與加速商品的流動。這些 絢爛的回顧，更在許多商業媒體持續不斷報導過去20年間，竭盡力量消減 存貨產生的顯著經濟效益所強化。這些令人驚訝的成果卻有一個問題── 成果可能是不真實的。去年，俄亥俄州立大學(Ohio State University)的一 個研究團隊，針對美國企業過去20年的存貨水準變化進行一次廣泛分析 時，得到一個令人吃驚的結論：20世紀末期的存貨大消減(the Great Inventory Reduction)根本沒有發生！

26. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) The programs aren’t reducing inventory The study did reveal a modest overall decline in total inventory since 1980, but most of that was due to a small number of industries that made structural changes in their supply chains. For example, the elimination of distributors and retailers in the direct sales model perfected by Dell, together with other advanced supply chain techniques, allowed the computer industry to cut its total inventories in half over the 20-year period. These are truly impressive gains, and they have contributed to the dramatic reductions in prices within this industry. But for other industries, including the two that have most ardently pursued retail replenishment programs—apparel and grocery—inventory levels have remained absolutely flat over the life of those programs. 所有方案均未能降低存貨 這項研究的確顯示，從 1980年以來，整體存貨有些微的降低，但是，這 個改變多半來自於一小部分產業在供應鏈上之結構性改變。例如，消除配 銷商與零售商且被戴爾公司(Dell)完美化的直接銷售模式(direct sales model)，以及一些其他先進供應鏈技術，使電腦產業在過去20年間降低 了一半的整體存貨。這確實是令人欽佩的成果，也使得電腦產業的價格大 幅下滑。但是對其他產業而言，包括熱切追求零售補貨方案的服飾與日用 品雜貨兩個產業，在導入各種方案後，存貨水準仍舊維持不變。

27. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) They’re just moving inventory elsewhere What's going on here? Are these programs just a sham? No; the problem is subtler than that. The inventory levels of the companies participating in these programs have, in fact, dropped, but it now appears that most of those reductions were achieved by displacing inventory within the chain rather than actually eliminating it. This may be good for the companies reporting success, but it's hard on other members of their chains, and it does nothing to make those chains more efficient or competitive overall. These programs may be intended to create a new level of cooperation in the supply chain, bringing companies together as true trading partners, but, as often happens in business, the benefits of that cooperation appear to accrue mostly to the dominant party. 它們只是將存貨移到其他地方 到底發生了什麼問題呢？難道這些方案只是一些可恥之舉嗎？不是的！問 題比這些來得更為細微、難以捉摸。事實上，參與這些方案的企業之存貨 水準的確是下降了，但是，大部分存貨的減少似乎是將其移轉到供應鏈的 其他地方，而不是真正地去除掉存貨。這種現象可能對那些報導成功經驗 的企業很好，但是卻不利於其他供應鏈的成員，根本無法讓供應鏈更貝效 率與競爭力。這些方案可能試圖在供應鏈中創造一種新的合作境界，以期 整合各公司成為真正的交易夥伴，不過猶如企業常規，這類合作的利益多 半落在具有關鍵主導權的成員(dominant party)身上。

28. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) Retailers have slashed their inventories The renowned success of Wal-Mart in mastering its supply chain provides a good case in point. Through a variant of the classic vertical integration strategy Wal-Mart has largely eliminated the distributors, carriers, and other middlemen that used to intervene between producers and retail outlets (Figure 3.6). The scale of this effort is staggering: Wal-Mart's trucks carry 50 million pallets of goods each week to 500 million square feet of retail space to serve 15 million customers a day. With economies of scale such as these, Wal-Mart has been able to eliminate a great deal of excess cost in its supply chain. These efficiencies are reflected in the national data: Retail is one of the few sectors that has made dramatic progress in reducing its total inventory, neatly paralleling the rise of mega retailers such as Wal-Mart. 零售商大砍他們的存貨 精通供應鏈的沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart)知名成功案例提供一個很好的例子。透過 一種典型的垂直整合策略，Wal-Mart已經大幅去除配銷商、運輸業者，以 及其他過去介於生產商與零售點間的中間業者(見圖3.6)。這項努力的規模 非常巨大：Wal-Mart的貨車每週載運5,000萬個棧板的貨物到占地5億平方 呎的零售通路，每天提供1,500萬位顧客服務。擁有這麼龐大的規模經濟 力量，Wal-Mart始終具有能力去除供應鏈上許多的多餘成本。這樣的效率 反映在國家統計數字：零售業是少數產業之一，在整體存貨下降上有非常 大的進展，與像Wal-Mart般之大型零售商的崛起時間幾乎平行發展。

29. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) Manufacturers now hold more finished goods Wal-Mart's massive scale also allows it to dictate terms to manufacturers, reversing the historical dominance of producers in the supply chains for consumer goods. For example, companies that want access to Wal-Mart's vast retail channel have to ship large volumes of goods to many different locations, meet precise delivery schedules with high reliability, and react instantly to changing levels of demand throughout the Wal-Mart empire. These requirements translate directly into increased inventories of finished goods, and that's exactly what the data show. In the industries that serve mega retailers such as Wal-Mart, inventories of finished goods have not just Remained flat, they have actually gone up over the last 20 years. 製造商現在特有更多的製成品存貨 Wal-Mart的龐大規模也讓她能主控與製造商談判的交易條件，扭轉傳統上 生產商在消費產品供應鏈中扮演主導角色的地位。例如，對想要進入Wal- Mart龐大零售通路的企業而言，她必須配送大量貨物到許多不同的指定交 貨地點、嚴格遵守交貨時間、保證交貨時間的可靠度、並且需快速回應 Wal-Mart整個事業版圖的需求變動。這些要求直接造成生產商製成品存貨 的增加，並直接反映在數據上。提供產品給如Wal-Mart般大型零售商的產 業，其製成品存貨不僅沒有保持平穩，反而在過去20年間增加了。

30. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) Manufacturers now hold more finished goods The Wal-Mart Model

31. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) Producers push the problem upstream Of course, producers can compensate for this pressure to some extent by streamlining their internal operations and putting pressure on their own suppliers for more prompt performance, reducing their inventories of raw materials and work in process. And that's just what the data indicate; it is reductions in raw materials and WIP inventories that have kept total inventories from rising. Of course, increasing the pressure on suppliers to hold inventory to the last minute and respond rapidly to demand signals requires them to keep more finished goods on hand, and so on, up the chain. In short, the dramatic reductions in inventory achieved at the retail level have come, in large part. from pushing inventory up the chain, not from taking it out of the chain. 製造商將問類推往上游 當然，製造商可以藉由平準化內部作業，要求供應商配合及時供貨，並因 而降低自己的物料與半製品存貨，某種程度地舒緩來自顧客的壓力。的 確，這就是資料所呈現的現象；因為原物料及半製品存貨的下降，才使製 造商整體存貨沒有上升。當然，增加對供應商的壓力，讓他們持有存貨到 最後一刻，並且快速回應需求信號，均使得他們必須保有更多製成品存貨 等等，而這可以一直往供應鏈上游複製。簡單地說，零售端存貨大幅降 低，絕大部分來自於將存貨向上游推擠，而不是將存貨從供應鏈中消除。

32. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) JIT also pushes inventory up the chain This pattern of pushing inventory up the chain is also found in JIT programs. Here again, requiring suppliers to make precisely timed deliveries and respond rapidly to changing consumption reduces a producer's inventory of raw materials at the cost of forcing suppliers to hold more finished goods to buffer variability in demand. The standard response to this problem is for the suppliers to adopt JIT as well, but that only works if customers and suppliers precisely synchronize their operations. When U.S. companies first adopted JIT in the 1980s, they sometimes found that total inventory costs went up rather than down. The problem wasn't within the four walls: Both customers and suppliers ran exemplary JIT shops, each keeping onsite inventory to a minimum. The problem lay in the link between them. In order to handle coordination problems, companies often kept inventory in third-party warehouses to provide a buffer stock (Figure 3.7). The inventory hadn't been eliminated after all; it had just been moved to more expensive facilities. 及時制也將存貨推往上游 這種將存貨向上推擠的型態也可以在及時制(JIT)方案中發現。再次發現， 要求供應商精確地準時答交，並快速地回應生產者物料使用需求變化可以 降低生產商原物料成本，不過卻迫使供應商以保有更多存貨來緩衝(buffer) 需求變異性為代價。這些供應商的標準回應方式就是也採用及時制的做 法，但這種方式只有當顧客與供應商間精確地同步化他們的作業時才會產 生功效。當美國企業在1980年代開始導入及時制的做法時，他們有時會發 現，整體存貨成本不減反增。這個問題不是在企業的「四面牆」之內：顧 客與供應商均運作懲戒性及時制設施；每一家都盡力使工作場所內的存貨 最小化，但是問題存在於彼此之間的連結。為了處理協調上的問題，企業 常會將存貨儲存在第三方物流公司(3PL)的倉庫中來作為緩衝存貨(見圖 3.7)。如此，存貨一點也沒有減少；存貨只是被移到比較昂貴的儲存設施 而已。

33. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) JIT also pushes inventory up the chain Hidden Inventory In JIT

34. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) JIT pushes inventory down the chain as well One important difference between programs at the production level and those at the retail level is that producers are in the middle of the chain rather than at the end, so they have the option of pushing inventory downstream as well as upstream (Figure 3.8).Not surprisingly, this is exactly what happens. The best example comes from the automobile industry; having sorted out most of the supplier aspects of JIT, U.S. auto plants now operate with as little as three hours of inventory on hand. But the inventory of cars and trucks sitting at dealerships now runs as high as three months‘ worth of supply. JIT may be a success for the automakers, but it isn't making their supply chains more efficient. Of all the ways in which the industry could hold inventory, finished goods is by far the most expensive form. 及時制同時將存貨推往下游 生產端與零售端的方案間存在一個重要差異，即生產者處於供應鏈的中間 位置而非末端，他可以選擇將存貨向上或向下推擠(見圖3.8)。一點也不令 人訝異，這就是真實的狀況。最好的例證來自於汽車產業：在要求許多供 應商配合及時制(JIT)方案後，美國汽車工廠現在僅保有3個小時的存貨。 但在經銷商端的小汽車與卡車存貨卻高達3個月。及時制的做法對汽車製 造商來說可能是成功的，但它並沒有讓供應鏈更有效率。一個產業持有存 貨的所有方式中，製成品仍是最昂貴的一種型態。

35. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) JIT pushes inventory down the chain as well Producer Displacing Inventory

36. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) Trading partners still act like competitors Viewed in the larger context of trade relationships, this pattern of pushing the burden up and down the chain rather than eliminating it altogether is not surprising. Although adjacent members of a supply chain are often called trading partners, more often than not this is a euphemism to draw attention away from a relationship that remains economically adversarial. No matter how much they may wish to cooperate, the bottom line is that the members of a supply chain are in competition with each other to increase their share of the consumer's dollar. When competition between chains drives down prices, the competition within chains heats up as each member of the chain tries to maintain its profit margins. If there is any imbalance of power within the chain—and there almost always is—the profits eventually gravitate to the power players, and the smaller players have to take what they can get. 貿易夥伴間仍然互相競爭 從更大範圍的貿易關係來看，這種往上及往下推擠卻不想辦法根除的做法 並不令人訝異。雖然供應鏈鄰近的成員常被稱為貿易夥伴(trading partners)，但這往往只是一種委婉的說法，來舒緩彼此間在經濟上仍處於 對立的張力。無論他們彼此之間多麼希望能合作，底線還是供應鏈成員間 彼此互相競爭，為自己爭取最大的消費者份額(share of consumer's dollar)。當不同供應鏈間之競爭將價格壓低時，供應鏈內的競爭將因每一 成員致力於維護自己的毛利而變得更白熱化。如果供應鏈中存在任何權力 的不平衡──事實就是這樣，主要利潤最後總是會落在權力最大的成員身 上，權力較小的成員只能拿剩下的部分。

37. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) True partnership is a real possibility Supply chain relationships don't have to be like this. When companies act as true trading partners, working together to pull time and cost out of the chain, they can create a situation in which everyone makes more money. Chrysler's SCORE program—at least in its early years—was an excellent example of how much can be achieved this way. The company's $1.7 billion in savings didn't come out of its suppliers' hides; suppliers saved money right along with Chrysler. The savings came from finding better ways to build a car. What made this program different is that SCORE fostered true innovation rather than just escalating the competition for a fixed amount of money. The Ohio State researchers mentioned at the beginning of this section reached the same conclusion, based on their study of national data. In their words, "efforts to increase efficiency through the exercise of power simply change the location of the inefficiency." The only way to get genuine improvements is to redesign The supply chain to increase its efficiency as a whole. 真誠夥伴關係是有可能的 供應鏈的關係不必落到這樣的窘境。當企業問以真誠夥伴關係相待，並同心 協力於消除供應鏈中的時間與成本時，他們可以創造出所有成員都可以賺更 多錢的境界。克萊斯勒(Chrysler)的SCORE；計畫(SCORE program)──至少 在計畫的早期，是一個傑出的範例，可以說明真誠夥伴關係所能達到的成 效。克萊斯勒(Chrysler)17億美元的節省並不是將成本移轉到她的供應商，她 的供應商也同樣獲得降低成本的效果。這些成本的降低是來自於她們共同找 出製造汽車的更好方法。這個計畫特別之處是，SCORE計畫培育出真正的創 新，而非只是加劇一筆固定金額的競奪。本節一開始提到的俄亥俄州立大學 研究人員，根據國家資料的分析，也獲得相同的結論。摘引他們的說法， 「透過權力運作來提升效率的努力，只會轉移無效率情事發生的地點」。欲 獲得真正改善的唯一方法，是重新設計供應鏈(redesign the supply chain)來增 加它的整體效率。

38. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) Win-win relationships are hard to build The idea of replacing competition between trading partners with cooperation,’ creating win-win relationships, is so obvious and so often repeated that it no longer has much currency. Attempts to build such relationships can and do succeed, but failure is the more common result, and today's managers are right to be suspicious of trading partners that talk about building win-win relationships without showing where the additional winnings will come from. They know that no matter how friendly things get, there will always be a dollar- for-dollar tradeoff between their profits and those of their "partners," so cooperation will never truly replace the natural competition between them. 雙贏關係不容易建立 貿易夥伴間以合作取代競爭的觀念──創造雙贏關係(win-win -relationships)，非常明顯也常被提出，了無新意。建立這樣關係的企圖是 可以也能夠成功的，不過失敗是更常見的結果。今日的經理人對於提出建 立雙贏關係的貿易夥伴存疑是正確的，尤其是對那些無法具體說出合作可 以帶來哪些更多好處的夥伴。他們知道，無論事情發展得如何順利與友 好，我們與貿易夥伴的利潤間，總會存在一塊錢對一塊錢的互抵效應(a dollar-for-dollar tradeoff)，因此，合作不可能真正取代彼此之間競爭的本 質。

39. The Problem with Programs(方案的問題) Game theory offers some vital insights The dilemma, then, is this: Adjacent members of a supply chain may have very real opportunities to increase their shared profits, but the underlying tension over how the profits are divided can prevent them from realizing those opportunities. And even if they do find a way to increase their total profit, they may do so by pushing inventory or other costs onto other members of the chain. This situation makes any attempt to improve the performance of the chain as a whole a difficult proposition at best. The only way out of the dilemma is somehow to separate the effects of cooperation from those of competition, recognizing that both exist and devising a way to distribute the profits from cooperation in a manner that is fair to all parties. That's hard to do under the best of circumstances, but the techniques of game theory can make it a little bit easier. 賽局理論提供一些很好的見解 這種進退兩難的情形是：關係密切的鄰近供應鏈成員間，可能存在著非常 實質的機會來增加他們的共有利潤，但是存在於利潤如何分配的緊張關係 會讓他們無法實現這些機會。而且即使他們的確找到方法來增加自己的總 利潤：這可能是因為他們將存貨或其他成本移轉給供應鏈的其他成員。這 個狀況使得任何企圖改善整體供應鏈績效的努力，變成最多只是一個難以 達成的提議。跳脫這種兩難局面的唯一方法是，將合作(cooperation)與競 爭(competition)效果做某種區別，認知兩者皆存在並設計一種對成員均屬 公平的合作利潤(profits from cooperation)分配方法。即便在最佳狀態下， 這個目標都很難達成，不過賽局理論的技術可以讓這件工作變得簡單一 些。

40. Insight from Game Theory(賽局理論之見) Transactions are played as zero-sum games When trading partners compete with each other over a fixed sum of money, they are playing what game theorists call a zero-sum game. In zero-sum games, there's a fixed amount of money at stake, and players compete to see who can win the largest share. In Figure 3.9, two players, A and B, are competing for stakes of $100. The range of possible outcomes, from A taking everything to B getting it all, forms the diagonal line labeled the win-lose line in the diagram. The outcome of the game is a single point on this line. For clarity—these aren't standard terms—I'll call the line describing the possible outcomes the tradeoff curve, and I'll refer to the point describing the outcome as the tradeoff point. In the case of a zero-sum game, the tradeoff curve is the same as the win-lose line, and movement of the tradeoff point along this line represents competition in its purest form. Most supply chain transactions play out as zero-sum games, with the two parties vying with each other to push the outcome in their direction along the win-lose line. 交易行為常呈現零和賽局狀態 當貿易夥伴間彼此競奪一筆固定金額時，他們正在進行的即是賽局理論學者 所稱的零和賽局(zero-sum game)。零和賽局中，存在一筆固定的金額，參賽 者間彼此競爭，以爭取更大的份額。圖3.9申，A與B兩位參賽者競逐100美元 的獎額。可能結果的範圍，從A取得全部的金額到B取得全部金額，形成圖中 標示輸贏線(win-Lose line)的一條對角線。賽局的可能結果會出現在輸贏線上 的一個點。為了解釋目的──這些用語不是標準用法，筆者將描述所有可能 結果的線稱之為互抵線(tradeoff curve)，描述結果的點為互抵點(tradeoff curve)。在零和賽局下，互抵線就是輸贏線，沿著這條線移動的互抵點代表 最完全型態的競爭。多數供應鏈交易是以零和賽局方式進行，交易雙方彼此 競爭努力爭取將輸贏線上的結果推向對自己有利的方向。

41. Insight from Game Theory(賽局理論之見) Transactions are played as zero-sum games A Zero-Sum Game

42. Insight from Game Theory(賽局理論之見) Few transactions are really zero-sum games If there are ways in which the parties involved in a transaction can influence the total winnings in addition to determining how they divide up those winnings, the transaction turns into a non-zero-sum game. A non-zero-sum game can go either way depending on the relationship between the two parties. If that relationship is cooperative, the parties can push the tradeoff curve up into the win-win region, as shown in the left panel of Figure 3.10. If the relationship is antagonistic, they can do each other more harm than good, moving the tradeoff curve down into the lose-lose region. The core contribution of game theory to economics is the insight that few business transactions are restricted to pure competition. Much of what we think of as win-lose transactions are actually much richer than this. 交易行為通常不是零和賽局 如果涉及一項交易的雙方間，除了如何分配獲利外，仍存在一些方法可以 影響整體獲利(total winnings)的話，這項交易即變成一個非零和賽局(non- zero-sum game)。非零和賽局中，根據雙方的關係，可能朝兩個方向發 展。如果是一種合作關係的話，大家會將交易線朝雙贏區域(win-win region)推進，如圖3.10中的左半邊的圖形。如果雙方關係是敵對的 (antagonistic)，彼此間造成的傷害大於收益的話，將使交易線朝雙輸區域 (lose-lose region)發展。賽局理論對於經濟學的主要貢獻，在於理解到只有 少數的企業交易屬於完全競爭(pure competition)。大部分我們認為是輸贏 的交易，事實上可以有更多其他的可能性。

43. Insight from Game Theory(賽局理論之見) Few transactions are really zero-sum games Non-Zero-Sum Games

44. Insight from Game Theory(賽局理論之見) Lose-lose relationships are common The focus of the following discussion is on moving trading relationships up into the win-win range, but that shouldn't obscure the fact that relationships often degenerate into lose-lose propositions. It is all too easy for the adversarial aspects of competition to dominate a relationship, even to the point where harming the other party becomes more important than winning the game. This is often seen in the competition between supply chains, where price wars and other forms of "cutthroat" competition can plunge companies into the lose-lose region. But it is also found within supply chains, as evidenced by the hidden JIT inventory shown in Figure 3.7 and in the higher carrying costs of inventory at auto dealers rather than plants. One of the dangers of thinking of trading relationships as zero-sum games is that it is all too easy for struggles along the win-lose line to slide off the line into the lose-lose region. 雙輸關係很常 以下討論的重點，是如何將交易關係朝雙贏區域移動，但這項努力並無法掩 蓋交易關係常會退化到雙輸的狀態。競爭的敵對狀態很容易就支配了關係的 發展，甚至到達傷害對方比贏得賽局更重要的地步。這種情況在供應鏈之間 (between supply chains)的競爭經常可見，價格戰或是其他形式的割喉競爭很 容易使企業陷入雙輸區域中。不過這種情形也可以在供應鏈內部(within supply chains)發現，如同在圖3，7所示的及時制(JIT)隱藏的原物料存貨(放在 第三方物流公司那裡)與發生在經銷商身上，而非汽車工廠的昂貴車輛存貨持 有成本。將交易關係視為零和賽局的想法將帶來一項危險，即很容易從輸贏 線上滑落到雙輸區域。

45. Insight from Game Theory(賽局理論之見) Cooperation can increase the total winnings On a more positive note, trading partners that want to improve their combined profits rather than just fight over a fixed amount of money can look for ways to change their relationship into a positive-sum game. This is not to say that they can eliminate the element of competition altogether; no matter how far they push the tradeoff curve into the win-win region, there can still be a struggle over who gets the lion's share of the winnings. The difference is a matter of emphasis rather than kind. In a cooperative game, the players focus on how to increase their total winnings and relegate the allocation of those winnings to a secondary concern. In a competitive game, the winnings are considered fixed and the allocation is everything. 合作可以增加整體獲利 如以更正面的態度出發，想要增進彼此共同利益，而非只是為爭取固定收 益份額大小的貿易夥伴可以找出改善關係的方法，朝向正和賽局 (a positive-sum game)的方向發展。無論他們將互抵線推進到雙贏區域多深 的位置，還是會有一些衝突存在於誰可以得到「最大的利益份額」。差異 點在於，這是個著眼點的問題而非憐憫與否的問題。在合作賽局申，參賽 者集中注意力於如何增加整體獲利，並且將如何分配這些利益放在第二順 位考量。在競爭賽局申，整體獲利是固定的而且如何分配獲利即代表了一 切。

46. Insight from Game Theory(賽局理論之見) SCORE put cooperation ahead of competition This is why Chrysler's SCORE program was so successful. It completely recast the relationship to focus on cooperation and provided a simple set of mechanics to resolve the competitive element. Current prices were taken as a given, and reductions in those prices were limited to actual savings resulting from improved techniques. That limited the competitive element to the amount of the savings, and the program was very flexible within that range. In the early days, Chrysler often accepted whatever savings a supplier chose to pass on, without questioning the actual amount. Some suppliers no doubt kept more than half of the savings, but others passed along most or even all of the savings in an effort to win more business. Since everyone was winning at this point, no one worried too much about keeping score. SCORE計畫著重的是合作而非競爭 這就是為什麼克萊斯勒(Chrysler)的SCORE計畫會如此地成功。它完全重 新塑造與供應商的關係以專注在合作上，並且提出一組簡單的機制來解決 競爭元素。SCORE將現行價格視為固定不變，價格的降低則限制在技術 改善所產生的節省範圍內。這樣可將競爭元素限定在成本節省金額內，而 且降價計畫在此範圍內非常有彈性。早期，克萊斯勒常接受任何供應商所 願意移轉的成本節省金額，毫不質疑實際節省的總額。有些供應商無疑地 會留下超過一半的節省金額，也有些供應商會將大部分甚至所有的改善利 益留給克萊斯勒，以爭取更多的業務。因為此時所有的人都獲利，沒有人 覺得有需要去記錄這些績效。

47. Insight from Game Theory(賽局理論之見) Cooperation requires changing the relationship The first lesson to be drawn from game theory, then, is that trading partners should place most of the emphasis on maximizing the total winnings. The more successful they are in this effort, the less important the allocation of those winnings becomes. This often requires a major shift in the way customers and suppliers view their relationship, and making that shift is often harder than finding opportunities for savings. In fact, studies of why supply chain partnerships so often fail reveal that the failure is usually due more to Attitudes than economics. It takes a sustained effort to build a positive-sum relationship, but, at least for key links in the chain, the return on that investment of time and energy can be among the best in business. 合作要求在關係上有所改變 因此，從賽局理論學到的第一個功課，就是貿易夥伴間應該將大部分精神 放在如何最大化整體的獲利。他們的努力愈是成功，如何分配獲勝成果相 對變得愈不重要。這往往需要顧客與供應商之間的關係產生一種主要的轉 變，這種關係轉變往往比尋找成本節省機會還要困難。事實上，為什麼供 應鏈夥伴關係經常會破裂的相關研究指出，失敗的原因通常是與態度 (attitudes)相關的多過與經濟(economics)相關的。建立正和賽局的關係需要 付出永續的努力，不過，至少對供應鏈申的主要連結，付出這些時間與精 力的投資報酬可能是最好的一種商業投資。

48. Insight from Game Theory(賽局理論之見) Competition is never completely eliminated Of course, the question of just where to place the tradeoff point in any given exchange doesn't ever go away, and even the best of relationships can become tense when there is freshly minted money lying on the table. There are many ways to resolve this question, but the preferred choice should always be to pick the point that maximizes the total winnings, compensating for any inequities through some other exchange. This is not only the best "average" outcome across the two companies, it is also the way to maximize the competitiveness of their supply chain. 競爭從未完全消除 當然，究竟要將一個交易的互抵點設定在何處的問題從未曾消失過，甚至 於最好的關係也可能在利益呈現之當下開始緊張起來。雖然有很多方式可 以解決這個問題，不過較好的方式應該是找出使整體獲利最大化的那一 點，再透過其他方式來補償任何不公平的地方。這不僅是兩家公司間最佳 的平均結果，也是他們供應鏈競爭力提升到最高水準的方法。

49. Insight from Game Theory(賽局理論之見) Tradeoff aren’t always symmetrical This is best seen through an example. Suppose a customer and supplier are each spending $5 a unit to verify the quality of a certain component. Figure 3.11 shows how this situation can be represented as a zero-sum game. In this case the cooperative region is in the lower left rather than the upper right because the companies benefit by reducing costs, whereas in the earlier example they benefited by increasing profits. The tradeoff curve in the diagram represents the results of a joint study showing that a cooperative inspection program could eliminate several redundant operations, reducing the total expenditure on quality control. According to the study, the tradeoff curve is asymmetrical; the largest savings Will be realized if the supplier takes on more of the burden of quality assurance because this eliminates the additional expense of shipping and returning defective components. Assuming the companies can agree on this program, how should they split the savings? 互抵效應不－定是對稱的 最好舉一個例子來說明。假設顧客與供應商各花費1單位5美元於檢查某一 項組件的品質，圖3.11顯示出一種零和賽局的型態。在本例中，合作區域 是落在左下方而非右上方，因為公司間藉由降低成本可以獲益。而在之前 的例子，他們則是藉由增加利潤來獲益。圖中的互抵線呈現一個聯合研究 的結果，顯示出一個合作品檢方案可以消除好幾個不必要的作業，使總品 管成本降低。根據這個研究，這條互抵線屬一種非對稱的型態。最大的節 省將來自供應商承擔較多的品管工作，因為這將可以消除運輸與退回瑕疵 品的費用。假設顧客與供應商接受這個聯合品檢方案的話，那麼他們要如 何分配節省下來的成本呢？

50. Insight from Game Theory(賽局理論之見) Tradeoff aren’t always symmetrical Allocating Cost Savings