W. Richard Peltier Department of Physics University of Toronto

1. Greenhouse Amplification of the Power of the Sun:An Earth bound problem with Impacts“Visible” from Space W. Richard Peltier Department of Physics University of Toronto

2. The Active Sun and the Amplification of its Power by the Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4, N2O

3. 3 Greenhouse Gas Concentration Measurements from Antarctic Ice-Cores Confirm the Anomalous Nature of Present Trace Gas Conditions The current (Holocene) inter-glacial Last 4 inter-glacials

4. Earth at the Last Maximum of Glaciation 21,000 Years Ago

5. 4 Since the onset of industrialization, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have been increasing at an unprecedented rate. Over the period since Last Glacial Maximum Individual GHG Strengths Holocene

6. 2 An early (TAR) “hockey stick” Current, 2009, atmospheric CO2 concentration is ~388 ppmv, which is to be compared to the pre-industrial level of ~280 ppmv, an increase of ~36% over the past ~160 years That global warming would be caused by increasing CO2 levels was predicted by the Nobel chemist Arrhenius~1896

7. 5 The mean surface temperature since the mid-20th century has continued to increase above that which existed at any time during the past 1300 years The IPCC Future Scenarios Since the beginning of northern hemisphere industrialization the increase has been ~0.8 Deg.

8. 6 The Observed Warming is Characterized by High Latitude Northern Hemisphere Amplification

9. The GRACE Satellites: Gravity field time dependence and climate

10. Land Ice in the Polar Regions: Sensitive indicators of greenhouse amplification Alaska and the Yukon Antarctica Greenland

11. The GRACE signal (a) and that expected due to the response of planetary shape to the elimination of the ice-age ice sheet that once covered Canada(b) = (a) – (b)

12. Estimating mass loss and global sea level rise: Alaska and Greenland Corrected for hydrology ~.15 mm/yr in Global sea level rise Corrected for GIA ~.62 mm/yr in Global sea level rise

13. Estimating mass loss and global sea level rise: Antarctica CSR GFZ GIA GFZ-GIA CSR-GIA ~.32 mm/yr in global sea level rise ~.36 mm/yr in Global sea level rise

14. Remember, the Greenhouse effect is enhanced as a consequence of our carbon based economy Greenhouse Gases

15. To Summarize Re: Climate Change • Since start of Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has risen from 277 parts per million to 387 parts per million • Burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, and natural gas – emits 7.5 billion tons of carbon each year • Deforestation emits 1.5 billion tons each year • Electricity generation and transportation are the largest sources of CO2 emissions, with coal-fired power plants the biggest culprit • As CO2 accumulates, global temperature rises Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

16. Climate Change • The earth has warmed an average 0.6°C (1.0°F) since 1970 • Rising temperatures fuel stronger storms and increase crop-withering heat waves • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects earth’s average temperature will rise 1.1 - 6.4°C(2.0 - 11.5°F) during this century Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / dra_schwartz

17. Ice Melting • Losing our Reservoirs in the Sky • Mountain glaciers rapidly disappearing worldwide • Himalayan and Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau glaciers feed the major rivers of Asia during the dry season, providing critical irrigation water for agriculture • If melting continues at current rates, rivers like the Yellow, Yangtze, Ganges, and Indus could become seasonal, devastating wheat and rice harvests Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

18. Ice Melting • Rising Seas • Massive Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are melting at accelerating rates • Together hold enough water to raise sea level 12 meters (39 feet) • A 10 meter rise in sea level today would inundate coastal areas home to more than 600 million people The risk is that climate change could spiral out of control, making it impossible to arrest trends such as rising temperatures, ice melting, and rising seas, threatening food security and creating hundreds of millions of climate refugees. Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

19. One Centerpiece of a new energy economy Abundant – North Dakota, Kansas, and Texas alone could satisfy U.S. energy needs Widespread – in every country Increasingly inexpensive A plausible goal: 3 million MW of installed capacity worldwide by 2020? Would Need 1.5 million 2-MW turbines installed by 2020 The Answer: De-carbonize by both --Harnessing the Wind Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Joe Gough

20. Technologies include photovoltaics (PV), solar thermal power plants, solar hot water and space heaters Sunlight hitting the earth in 1 hour could power global economy for 1 year New Economy goal: Solar heating, electricity each exceed 1 million MW installed capacity And De-carbonize by-- Harnessing The Power of the Sun Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / katyakatya

21. World Electricity Generation by Source in 2006 and in one envisioned NEW Economy X 2050??

22. The End