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Ranjan Kumar Bose , Ph.D.

Growing On-Road Transportation in India Analysis of Policy Co-Benefits of Climate Change and Pollution. Ranjan Kumar Bose , Ph.D. Senior Fellow, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), New Delhi, India Presented at Better Air Quality (BAQ) Workshop 2006

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Ranjan Kumar Bose , Ph.D.

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  1. Growing On-Road Transportation in India Analysis of Policy Co-Benefits of Climate Change and Pollution Ranjan Kumar Bose, Ph.D. Senior Fellow, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), New Delhi, India Presented at Better Air Quality (BAQ) Workshop 2006 Sub-Workshop 31: Quantifying Transport related cobenefits of Emission Reduction Held at Hyatt Regency Hotel, Yogyakarta, Indonesia (11-15 December 2006)

  2. Coverage • An overview • Trends and challenges • Benefits of public transport • Policy and vision • Impact of policies on co-benefits • Barriers to change

  3. Transportation energy and GHG emissions – an overview • Total transport energy use was 34.81 mtoe in 2003/04# • Consumed about 16% of total energy • Largest consumer of petroleum products (32%) • Petroleum fuels 98% and electricity 2% • HSD (71%), Gasoline (27%), other fuels (<1%) • Huge dependence on oil import • 75% import dependency of crude oil • Large crude import bill (26 billion USD in 2004/05) • Road is the most dominant transport mode • 80% of passengers are moved by road • 60% of freight are moved by road • Carbon emissions from road transport are increasing most rapidly** • In 1994, total CO2 emissions was 679.47 mt • 12% contribution was from transport sector • Road transport accounted for 90% #TEDDY 2004/05, TERI publication; *India’s Initial National Communication, MoEF, GoI, 2004

  4. Transport scenario will be governed by • Increasing urbanization • Rapid economic development • Urban sector contribution to GDP 50-60% • Rising income levels • Rapid increase in motorization • High vehicle density in urban areas • Policies • National Urban Transport Policy, MoUD • Auto-Fuel Policy, MoPNG • Auto Policy, MoHI

  5. Rise in income and growth in vehicles ownership • From 60 million vehicles in 2000 • 537 million in 2030 (9% annual growth) • 671 million in 2030 (10% annual growth) Source: Bose, R.K. 2006. Energy Efficiency and Climate Change Considerations for On-Road Transportation in India. Prepared under ADB contract TA-6261 (REG), May 11.

  6. Projections of transport demand 2005-30 • Travel demand would grow • 8.5% per year with low economic growth of 6% • 10.1% per year with high economic growth of 8%

  7. Energy demand: 9 to 13 times increase (2000-30) CO2 emissions: 9 to 13 times increase (2000-30)

  8. General findings and solutions • Large increases in road transport-related GHG emissions are unavoidable in future • Key Strategies • Introduce cleaner fuels and improved technologies (based on progressively stringent standards) • Make public transport and non-motorized transport attractive • Manage growth in vehicle use (with “carrots” and “sticks”) • Enhance/improve travel alternatives to serve diversity of needs and desires • Coordinate government strategies and activities (transport and land use, infrastructure investments, industrial policy and transport, etc)

  9. Policy and vision • Improving access and reducing transport demand • Integrate land use and transport planning • Using less fuel per passenger or freight kilometre • Fiscal and control measures • Priority to good public transport • Promoting use of NMT modes • Implement fuel economy standards for new vehicles • Fuel efficiency standards • Emission standards • Fuel quality standards • Reducing emissions from in-use vehicles • Inspection and Certification • Retrofit programme • Co-benefits • Examine synergies and trade-offs • Transport and fuel subsidies • Lower the cost of road transportation • Decrease the incentive to economize on fuel • Problem of adulteration

  10. Impact of various policies on co-benefits

  11. Impact of various policies on co-benefits

  12. Impact of various policies on co-benefits

  13. Impact of various policies on co-benefits

  14. Investment and financing • Establish a clear and transparent legal & fiscal framework • Attract investment on Clean Fuels and Technologies • Encourage Public-Private partnership • Creation of dedicated public transport and NMT infrastructure • Setting up of a number of modern I&C centres • Seek financial support under GEF • CDM offers the possibility to increase funding but there are challenges • Issue of ‘baseline’ and ‘additionality’ need to be addressed

  15. Barriers to change • Weak empowerment and linkages between urban planning, transport planning, traffic management and enforcement • Lack of public transport alternatives and political unwillingness to enforce TDM measures • Access to huge capital to implement • public transport systems • I&C centres • Absence of a comprehensive framework to evaluate true cost of externalities of road transport • Inadequate knowledge of the cost-benefit or cost effectiveness of various measures

  16. Thank you

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