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Water Futures Frank Rijsberman

Water Futures Frank Rijsberman. Why Scenarios?. Futurists think “out of the box” Models extrapolate the current structure Over 25 years the structure is likely to change (e.g. think telephones or air travel)

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Water Futures Frank Rijsberman

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  1. Water Futures Frank Rijsberman

  2. Why Scenarios? • Futurists think “out of the box” • Models extrapolate the current structure • Over 25 years the structure is likely to change (e.g. think telephones or air travel) • Scenarios start qualitatively, with drivers and a (consistent) storyline – then can be explored with models

  3. Focus: Surprises • For which India are we designing water futures? • The India of the 1970s? • The India of today? • Or the India of our children?

  4. Climate Change • Scientific debate: started in 70s • AGGG: 1984-1987 • IPCC: started1989 – produced 3 assessments • UNFCCC: 1992 (Johannesburg) – JI, CDM • Kyoto Protocol: entered into force early ‘05 • Lesson: issue with major scientific uncertainty led to massive action due to careful combination of scenario analysis, modeling, impact assessment and “political lobbying”

  5. Lessons: • Shared datasets [agreeing on basic water availability numbers] • Widely accepted definitions [blue / green water; water productivity; withdrawal / consumption] • Range of models [from field to global scales] • Exploring uncertainty / change through scenarios [exposing and analysing different points of view / values]

  6. Context today: • IAASTD – intergovernmental assessment on agriculture S&T for development • CA – global assessment water, food, environment • WaterSim – global model on water, food and environment • PodiumSim for India – analysis of water demand and availability for Indian river basins • Datasets such a “irrigated area maps” for India

  7. RiverLinking project: drivers • Exogenous drivers: • Exogenous to India • Exogenous to the water sector • Endogenous drivers • Where are the surprises of tomorrow??

  8. Exogenous drivers: • World trade (in food) • Relations with neighbours (Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh on water issues; China on economic interaction / regional “power”) • Migration within India • Relationships among states – collaboration or not • Shifts in the economy – to sectors/states • Diet (meat consumption) • Private sector / NGOsvs. government roles

  9. Endogenous drivers: • Desalination pricing • Biotechnology • Community action led by NGOs • Valuation of environmental water services • Ecological sanitation and re-use of waste water • Deficit irrigation • Rainfed-irrigation continuum

  10. Recommendations: • Develop agreed, publicly available basic datasets: rainfall, streamflow, landuse, major diversions, demographics, … • Have range of models that agree to use shared datasets • Explore definitions of water use/consumption • Explore scenario “drivers”: economic growth, dietary changes, urbanization, WTO • Develop and analyse transparent scenarios

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