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Human Population : Growth, Demography and Carrying Capacity Chapter 10 Miller 14th Edition

Human Population : Growth, Demography and Carrying Capacity Chapter 10 Miller 14th Edition. AP Environmental Science A.C.Mosley High School Mrs. Dow. Figure 10-1 Page 176. Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in Thailand: A success story

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Human Population : Growth, Demography and Carrying Capacity Chapter 10 Miller 14th Edition

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  1. Human Population:Growth, Demography and Carrying Capacity Chapter 10 Miller 14th Edition AP Environmental Science A.C.Mosley High School Mrs. Dow

  2. Figure 10-1Page 176 Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in Thailand: A success story Mechai Viravidaiya was a charismatic leader who implemented family planning as a national goal and sharply reduced the population in 15 years. The population growth rate when from 3.2% to 1.6%. It was 0.8% in 2004.

  3. Figure 10-2Page 176 Bangkok, Thailand

  4. Human Population Growth Historically • Early Hunter Gatherers • Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the Earth • Practiced Intentional Birth Control • Rise of Agriculture • Necessary for Survival • Animals became extinct via predation and altered habitat • Humans began to cultivate own food

  5. C. Agriculture Gives Rise to Cities • Food Produced in Country, Consumed in City • Food wastes are no longer returned to soil • Soil becomes less productive • Waste of Populations Concentrated in Cities • Population Control in Medieval Societies • Infanticide • Plagues

  6. D. Industrialization • View of Children During Early Phases of Industrial Growth • Valued as cheap source of income and cheap labor • Exponential growth of populations • By 1900s, Birth Rate in Industrialized World Dropped • Rise in standards of living • Safe and inexpensive means of birth control introduced • Increase in the cost of child rearing

  7. MI L L I O NS

  8. Population Projections Over 95% of this increase will take place in “Developing Countries”

  9. Current World Population • Population ClockVital Events (per time unit) Global population was 6,652,872,696On February 25,2008 at 10:55 am • The global population grows by: • Nearly 2.5persons per seconds • Nearly 8,868 persons per hour • Over 212,828 persons per day • Over 77 million persons per year

  10. How Much is a Billion? • 1,000 seconds = 16.7 minutes • 1 million-s = 16,677 min = 11.6 days • 1 billion-s = 11,574 days = 31.7 years • 1,000 pennies = ~ 88 ounces = 5.5 pounds • 1 million pennies = 5,500 pounds (~1-Suburban) • 1 billion pennies = 2,750 tons (~2 Space Shuttles)

  11. Billion Grains of Rice • 200 grains of rice in a teaspoon • 9,600 grains of rice in a cup (48 tsp) • How many Cups are in a Gallon? • 16 cups • How many grains of rice are in 16 cups? • 9,600 x 16 = 153,600 grains of rice • How many gallons would it take to take to equal 1 million grains of rice? • 1,000,000 divided by 153,6000 = • 6.5 Gallons = 1 million grains of rice

  12. If 6.5 gallons equal 1 million how many gallons would it take to equal 1 billion? • 6.5 gallons x 1000 = • 6,500 gallons = 1 billion • How many gallons would it take to equal 6.6 billion? • 42,900 gallons of rice = 6.6 billion grains of rice.

  13. 10-1 Factors affecting Human Population Sizes • Demographyis the study of the size, composition, and distribution of human populations and the causes and consequences of changes in these characteristics.

  14. Human Population Dynamics • There are just three sources of change in population size — • fertility • mortality • "natural decrease" refers to population decline resulting from more deaths than births • migration • Net migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

  15. Population increases through birth and immigration • Population decreases through deaths and emigration • population change=(birth + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)

  16. Rates of Global Pop. Changeuse: International Data Base http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, then Online Demographic Aggregation • CBR (crude birth rate) = # births / 1000 population 1990: 24 now: 20.6 • CDR (crude death rate) = # deaths / 1000 population 1990: 9 now: 8.8

  17. Growth Rate = (b + i) – (d + e) 1990: 1.5% now: 1.19% • growth rates have come down • Annual rate of Natural Population change % = (BR – DR/1000) x 100 • (BR-DR)/10

  18. Worlds population growth has decreased • 1963-2004 growth rate dropped from 2.2% to 1.2% but population based doubled from 3.2 to 6.4 billion • Developed countries gr = 0.25% • Developing countries gr = 1.46% • 6x faster

  19. Fastest growing India China Pakistan Nigeria Bangladesh Indonesia Highest current population China (1.3 billion) India (1.2 billion) United States (303 million) China and India Population comprise 38% of the world’s population

  20. China 1.3 billion 1.4 billion India 1.1 billion 1.4 billion USA 294 million 349 million Indonesia 219 million 308 million Brazil 179 million 211 million Pakistan 159 million 229 million Russia 144 million 137 million Bangladesh 141 million 205 million Japan 128 million 121 million Nigeria 137 million The world’s ten most populous countries in 2004 with projections for 2025 206 million 2004 2025

  21. Doubling Time • Population growth • Calculating doubling time • Rule of 70 • 70 divided by growth rate • Ex. Growth rate of 1.2 • 70/1.2 = 58 years population will double

  22. Human Population Dynamics • Replacement fertility rate (RFR) • The number of children a couple must have to replace their parents • A TFR of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and child mortality rates • Africa RFR = 2.5 • Total fertility rate (TFR) • The average number of children born to a woman • Average in developed countries = 1.5 • Average in developing countries = 3.8 • Worldwide 1990: 3.1 now: 2.76

  23. Total Fertility Rates for US 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Births per woman 2.1 2.0 1.5 Baby boom (1946-64) Replacement level 1.0 0.5 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year

  24. 600 571 Figure 10-9Page 180 500 400 Population in millions 292 Total population 300 200 76 100 Projections 2100 2080 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Year U.S. Population Growth

  25. 1946-1964 • U.S. sharp rise in birth rate (baby boom) • U.S. has highest growth for developed countries • 2.7 million people added in 2004 • 55% due to births • 45% immigration • ** we have an incredibly high resource use! • 2050 • 7.2 – 10.6 billion people! • 97% of this in developing countries

  26. Birth & fertility rate factors • Children work in developing countries • Economic costs of raising & educating – more cost = less children • Private/public funding systems = less children (they don’t need to care for parents) • Urban families have better access to family planning = less children

  27. Birth & fertility rate factors • Women w/educational & economic choices = less children • Low infant mortality rate = fewer children • Older woman @ marriage = fewer children • If abortions are available & legal = fewer children • Availability of birth control = space children apart

  28. United States Mexico Canada Comparison of basic demographic data 294 million Population (2004) 106 million 32 million Projected population (2025) 349 million 150million 36 million 6.7 Infant mortality rate 25 5.2 77 years Life expectancy 75 years 79 years 2.0 Total fertility rate (TFR) 2.8 1.7 21% % population under age 15 35% 18% 12% % population over age 65 5% 13% $36,110 Per capita GDP PPP $8,790 $31,892

  29. 47 years Life expectancy 77 years 8% Married women working outside the home 81% 15% High school graduates 83% 10% Homes with flush toilets 98% 2% Homes with electricity 99% 10% Living in suburbs 52% 1900 $3 Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation) 2000 $15 1.2 Homocides per 100,000 people 5.8

  30. Decline in death rate factors • Better food • nutrition • Safer Water supplies • health care • Advances in medicine • public health • improved sanitation • personal hygiene

  31. Human Population Dynamics • Life Expectancy • Average # of years a newborn can expect to live • Infant mortality rate • IMR • infant deaths per 1000 live births (infant < 1 yr) • 1990: 62 now: 52.4 (normal in 1900: 200) • U.S. IMR is higher than 35 countries

  32. http://www.povertymap.net/pub/mipwa/sections/w-global/health-sanit/infant-mortality-2.htmhttp://www.povertymap.net/pub/mipwa/sections/w-global/health-sanit/infant-mortality-2.htm

  33. www.tte-online.com/.../table-of-contents/ chem-enc-1.html

  34. What Is Family Planning? • Definition • Measures enabling parents to control number of children (if they so desire) • Goals of Family Planning • Not to limit births • For couples to have healthy children • For couples to be able to care for their children • For couples to have the number of children that they want

  35. China’s Program • Nation With Best Known Population Control Program • Reasons Chinese Government Initiated Population Control Measures • Freshwater and food at a premium for nation’s population • Country experiencing population momentum • Government Perks / Coercive Measures for Citizen Compliance • Free education and health care • Increased personal and family incomes • Increased legal marrying age for women • Contraceptives, abortions, and sterilizations free of charge • Preferential housing and retirement income

  36. What Methods are Used to Control Births? • Preconception Birth Control Methods • Barrier Methods • Condom • Vaginal sponge • Diaphragm • Spermicides • Hormonal Contraceptives • Pill • Injections and implants • Sterilization • Postconception Birth Control Measures • Intrauterine Device • RU-486 Pill • Abortion

  37. Typical effectiveness rates of birth control methods in the U.S. Extremely Effective Total abstinence 100% Sterilization 99.6% Vaginal ring 98-99% Highly Effective IUD with slow-release hormones 98% IUD plus spermicide 98% Vaginal pouch (“female condom”) 97% IUD 95% Condom (good brand) plus spermicide 95% Oral contraceptive 93%

  38. Typical effectiveness rates of birth control methods in the U.S. Effective Cervical cap 89% Condom (good brand) 86% Diaphragm plus spermicide 84% Rhythm method (Billings, Sympto-Thermal) 84% Vaginal sponge impreg- nated with spermicide 83% Spermicide (foam) 82%

  39. Typical effectiveness rates of birth control methods in the U.S. Moderately Effective Spermicide (creams, jellies, suppositories) Rhythm method (daily temperature readings) 75% 74% Withdrawal 74% Condom (cheap brand) 70% Unreliable Douche 40% Chance (no method) 10%

  40. Contraceptive Use Worldwide • People in industrialized countries enjoy easy access to contraceptives while those in LDCs do not. • In the U.S., teens and poor women are least likely to use contraceptives. • Severe problems are associated with teen pregnancy. • Teens don’t receive the care they need. • More adolescent girls die from pregnancy-related causes than any other cause. • Maternal mortality is twice as high for women younger than 20, and 4 times as high for women younger than 17. • Each year about 15 million young women ages 15-19 have babies. • Survival rate for babies born to teens is low. • Young age of mother can cause problems with the child. • Teen pregnancy causes greater public expenditures.

  41. Migration Net migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

  42. Arguments to limit immigration • Limitation would aid in stabilizing the population • Limitations would help reduce the enormous environmental impact of the U.S.

  43. Arguments for generous immigration policies in the U.S. • Land of opportunity for the world’s poor • Immigrants do work that Americans won’t do or handle jobs or which there are not enough trained Americas • Immigrants contribute to the economy and pay taxes

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