The History of the Future

1. The History of the Future 6: In the Shadow of the Bomb

2. The Shadow of the Bomb • Constant fear early 1950s – late 1980s • Civilization could be wiped out at any time • Unusual character of Cold War • Long, relatively static confrontation • Civilians and cities as prime targets • Wove itself into politics, industry, technology • Nuclear technology influenced entire culture • Impact clear in many books and films of period

3. One of two bombs dropped on Japan Uranium based bomb 4 tons, equivalent to 12,500 tons of TNT About 140,000 people killed by end 1945 Medical effects closely studied Decision to use remains controversial among historians Hiroshima

4. A Triumph for SF? • Campbell exultant on hearing news • Best case for predictive power of SF • Radiation & atoms famous since early 1900s • Atomic power, weapons both predicted by 1910s • Campbell seized on in 1930s • Promoted idea to his readers and writers • Incorporated realistic details (isotopes, etc) • SF readers well familiar with by 1945

5. Atomic Ubiquity circa 1940 • Asimov – Foundation stories (early 1940s) • Reactor on a key chain • Atomic spaceships, shields, cars • Heinlein – Future History stories • Atomic power for spaceships • Atomic power station

6. Development of Nuclear Weapons • Germans discover fission in 1939 • Einstein & colleagues win FDR backing • Manhattan Project launched 1941 • First controlled reaction, 1942 (Fermi, Chicago) • Large scale facilities for uranium, plutonium • Bombs designed, built at Los Alamos, NM • First test, “Trinity” in 1945 (secret) • Public tests in 1946 impress the world

7. Nuclear Proliferation • Strategic Air Command created 1946 • 300 atomic weapons, 250 bombers by 1950 • “Massive retaliation” strategy by late 1940s • Soviets explode own bomb in 1949 • Eisenhower oversees major US buildup • Major buildup, many new technologies • SAC target list grows to 1,400 initial targets

8. Hydrogen Bomb • Development authorized in 1950 • Energy from fusion • Set off by conventional atomic bomb • Yields of megatons – no theoretical limit • Usable weapon by 1954 • Followed by long range bomber, 1955 • Atlas (first ICBM) deployed 1958 • Polaris submarine deployed 1960

9. Fear of Soviet Developments • Desire to maintain clear lead • Massive investment in new technologies • U2 spy plane, satellite imaging • Paranoia leads to overestimates • Imaginary “missile gap” helps get Kennedy elected • Soviet missiles actually unable to hit US in 1960 • In 1962 US has 10:1 advantage in deliverable bombs • Elaborate defensive systems • SAGE in late 1950s • Attempts to build AMB (anti-missile) system

10. Film Interlude • “Duck and Cover” • 1951 Civil Defense propaganda film • For school children • Stars “Burt the Turtle” • “Sometimes the bomb might explode without any warning... Be like Burt...” • “Going to school on a beautiful spring day. But no matter where they go or what they do they always try to remember what to do if the atom bomb explodes right then.” • “Stay covered until the danger is over.”

11. Nuclear Strategy • Earliest idea was devastating, total strike • “MAD” (Mutual Assured Destruction) • Targeting major cities & industrial sites • This lacks credibility • Studies of “limited nuclear war” in 1950s • Henry Kissinger • RAND Corporation, Herman Kahn • Shift alluded to in Miller book

12. Nuclear Strategy II • US could not renounce “first use” • Nuclear deterrent to Soviet forces in Europe • Controversial at home & abroad • Tricky political situation • Emphasis on limited strikes and “counterforce” capabilities makes threat more credible (technology improves) • But as policy suggests US plans to strike first & casts doubts on deterrence • All out attack remains official plan into 1970s

13. Nuclear Power • Initial expectations unrealistic • Early experiments by government • Need reactors to build bombs, but inefficient • 1954 Atomic Energy Act • Opens to commercial development • Atomic Energy Commission to regulate • Also charged with weapons development • Slow at first, booms in 1960s • Reactors rapidly scaled up

14. Spreading Atomic Power • Atomic explosions for peaceful purposes • “Project Ploughshare”, late 1950s onward • Construction projects • Space flight • Heating • US exported reactor technology to allies • “Atoms for Peace” UN speech, Eisenhower, 1953 • Recipients include India, Pakistan – use for bombs

15. Nuclear SF in the 1950s • Interest in Nuclear Power quickly fades • More of an area for thriller writers • Some attention to fusion power • Focus shifts to nuclear war • Generally aftermath – often pastoral • Many stories about mutation, radiation

16. Post-Holocaust Fiction • Depopulated future evokes pre-industrial past • Not always atomic • Plague - Earth Abides, George R. Stewart, 1949 • Plants – Day of the Triffids, John Wyndham, 1951 • Popular through 1960s

17. Atomic Mutation • Very popular in 1950s fiction • Mutation theme predates atomic element • Generally persecuted; frequently telepathic • Present in serious fiction • including Canticle • Handy device for monster films • of which Them! is the finest example

18. Film Interlude • “About Fallout” • Hold this one in mind as you read Canticle