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Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

Electric vehicles - a more sustainable land transport system for New Zealand? Presentation to the 2008 Postgraduate Energy conference. Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington. Transport’s contribution to AGW.

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Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

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  1. Electric vehicles - a more sustainable land transport system for New Zealand?Presentation to the 2008 Postgraduate Energy conference Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

  2. Transport’s contribution to AGW Source: Ministry of Economic Development, 2007 Source: Kahn Ribeiro, S., S. Kobayashi, et al. (2007) Source: Ministry for the Environment, 2006

  3. The future of oil? Source: theoildrum.com

  4. EVs - Road

  5. EVs – Road 2

  6. EVs – Mass transit

  7. Comparative vehicle efficiency Source: Simpson, 2005

  8. Well to Wheel efficiency and GHG emissions Source: Simpson, 2005

  9. Comparative energy density of petrol and Li ion battery Comparison based on the Tesla Roadster

  10. Study questions • What impact will the increased use of EVs for land transport in New Zealand have on GHG emissions? • What impact would EVs have on fossil fuel usage? • What impact would the increased use of EVs have on electricity demand and the functioning of the electricity system? • what effect (if any) would this increased use have on the attainment of the Government’s 90% renewable 2025 target?

  11. Evaluating technological transitions • How do new technologies arise and what impacts will they have on society? Three generic approaches • Point source – new technology arises from an innovative event then develops through stages • Transformational – technology innovations have an impact on society and vice versa. • Replacement –new technologies compete with old based on price and performance Geels (2004)

  12. GHG emissions GHG emissions Electricity demand EV vehicle development status (performance and cost) Vehicle Transition Model (VTM) Electricity Sector Model (ESM) Carbon price Travel demand factors Non-transport demand Non EV vehicle costs Electricity price Proposed Model

  13. Technology and sustainability • Environmental sustainability criteria (OECD 2001) • Use renewable resources efficiently and not exceed long term rate of natural regeneration • Use non-renewable resources efficiently and limit their use so they can be substituted by renewable resources • Limit discharges to be within the assimilative capacity of ecosystems • Avoid actions that have an irreversible effect on the environment • Will EVs result in an incremental technological change or a technology transition? “a transition denotes a long-term change in an encompassing system that serves a basic societal function (e.g. food production and consumption, mobility, energy supply and use, communication, etc.).” Elzen (2005)

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