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How an Urbanizing Population is Affecting Change in China’s Real Estate Market

How an Urbanizing Population is Affecting Change in China’s Real Estate Market A view through the lens of 30 years of project work 17 th Annual Fisher Center Real Estate Conference Anita Roth Senior Economist, AECOM Anita.roth@aecom.com @anitaroth12. 1. 2. 3. 4. Introduction.

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How an Urbanizing Population is Affecting Change in China’s Real Estate Market

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  1. How an Urbanizing Population is Affecting Change in China’s Real Estate Market A view through the lens of 30 years of project work 17th Annual Fisher Center Real Estate Conference Anita Roth Senior Economist, AECOM Anita.roth@aecom.com @anitaroth12

  2. 1 2 3 4 Introduction Facts & Figures Our Work Development Trends Overview

  3. Cepolina.com Infoseekchina.com

  4. Wildchina.com Thefakechina.com

  5. NASA Earth Observatory Pearl River Delta (1979)

  6. NASA Earth Observatory Pearl River Delta (2003)

  7. China’s population is 4.3 times the size of the U.S.’s 1.4billion ~313 million China (2011) US (2012) Total Population (2011/12)

  8. Population Growth Rate 1.47% China 0.84% 1.13% U.S. 0.52% Population Growth Rate

  9. 1.4billion China (2011) China’s Population (2011)

  10. >50% urban Compared with… (690 million) 26% In 1990 Urban Population

  11. in urban areas >1 million 18% (240 million) Compared with… 45% (140 million) In the U.S. Urban Population

  12. GDP Growth Rate 10.4% 3.8% China 3.0% 1.9% U.S. 8.2% Expected in 2012 GDP Growth Rate

  13. $7.3 trillion (US$) China (2011) China’s nominal GDP is 48% that of the U.S.’s $15.1 trillion (US$) US (2011) GDP (nominal)

  14. 12% (US$710 billion) Real Estate contribution to GDP Real Estate Market as % of GDP

  15. 2 3 4 1 AECOM – Who we are AECOM

  16. Building Engineering Architecture Water Design + Planning Environment Energy Program + Construction Mgmt. Government Services Transportation AECOM – Who we are

  17. >30 years of working on projects in China 2 3 4 1 Working in China

  18. >30 years of working on projects in China 15 years with offices in China 2 3 4 1 Working in China

  19. >30 years of working on projects in China 15 years with offices in China 2 3 4 1 11 offices in China Working in China

  20. >30 years of working on projects in China 15 years with offices in China 2 3 4 1 11 offices in China ~ 4,000 staff in China Working in China

  21. AECOM’s Work in China

  22. Economic Development Regulatory Political Main Drivers of Development

  23. 6 major trends in AECOM’s project work in China* *Disclaimer: None of these trends are really TRUE!

  24. Increase in urban infill projects Increase in tourism-oriented development Increased public sector involvement Increase in demand for economic services Increase in mixed use development Increase in client sophistication Notable Trends

  25. 1 Suzhou Region, Jiangsu Province Increase in Urban Infill Projects

  26. 2 Increase in Public Sector Involvement

  27. 3 Increase in Mixed Use

  28. 4 Increase in Client Sophistication

  29. 游客市场分析 5 • 接待过夜游客人数 • 过夜外国人游客 Increase in Demand for Economic Services

  30. 6 Increase in Tourism-oriented Development

  31. Increase in urban infill projects Increase in tourism-oriented development Increased public sector involvement Increase in demand for economic services Increase in mixed use development Increase in client sophistication Notable Trends

  32. Is there a Real Estate Bubble?

  33. 谢谢 Thank you! Anita Roth Senior Economist, AECOM Anita.roth@aecom.com @anitaroth12

  34. $8,382(US$) China (2011) China’s Per capita GDP (PPP) is 17% that of the U.S.’s $48,386 (US$) US (2011) GDP per Capita (PPP)

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