Support to HQ ISAF , Kabul, Afghanistan, Spring 2002 Presentation to 19 ISMOR John Sharpe

1. Support to HQ ISAF, Kabul, Afghanistan, Spring 2002 Presentation to 19 ISMOR John Sharpe Head OA HQ Land Command

2. Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Campaign v Taliban & AQ ISAF Planning Bonn ISAF Deployment Analyst 1 Analyst 2 Analyst 3 Analyst 4 Handover to Turkey Timeline

3. Living Conditions 1. • Dealing with extreme climatic conditions • Basic wash facilities • Worse food than mess food • Bottled water • Keeping fit • Motivation • Having fun!

4. Living Conditions 2

5. Working Conditions

6. HQ Land Base Team Initial Response & Coordination of Reachback Tasks - Farnborough - Portsdown - Farnborough - Farnborough Frontline “ PCS (was HLS) Air Systems Dstl QinetiQ Army AWC Historical Analysis Team Mortar School RAF Waddington Reachback OA Cell In-Theatre

7. Summary of Work • Historical Analysis Review • Troops to Task • Strategic Lift • Sustainment Pre-Deployment Deployed Team 1 (Feb-Apr) Deployed Team 2 (Apr-Jun) • Measures of Success • Target Audience Analysis (TAA) • Fuel Utilisation Calculator (FUC) • Blood Donor Analysis • APOD Threat Analysis • ISAF News • Statistical Advice and Explanation • Data Collection and Canvassing of Cells • Measures of Success • Target Audience Analysis (TAA) • Loya Jirga Delegates Arrival Model • J2 Database • APOD Threat Analysis • Medical Statistics and Blood Data

8. Strategic Lift

9. Sanitise approach & transit routes Nighttime flying Evasive routing Air routes under threat Teeth Runways constrained Little offload space Repair Engineers Airfields damaged & Contaminated Clear EOD Move material Transport Roads under threat Movement Constrained Escorted Convoys Teeth & Transport Clear EOD HQ areas Contaminated Little living & storage space Construct Engineers Political Imperative Visible Presence Patrol Teeth Strategic Lift Few a/c equipped Few Aircrew trained

10. EOD and Lift Model Aircraft Arrival Rate Aircraft HandlingCapacity Storage Capacity Materiel at Airhead Onward Movement Rate Transport Capacity Engineering Capacity Storage Capacity Materiel at Destination

11. Sustainability Lift Model Sustainment Requirement Aircraft Arrival Rate Force Arrival Rate Forces in Theatre

13. Measurement of Success

14. Schematic Overview of Campaign Plan PHASE II - FOC PHASE III - Further Assistance DP20 DP5 DP1 DP11 DP15 Security Assistance Strategic CofG Coherence of IA DP6 DP19 DP2 DP14 DP7 DP18 ISAF Coherence Security of Kabul DP8 OP Endstate Strategic Endstate DP3 DP10 DP16 DP21 Infrastructure/ Humanitarian Sp DP9 DP17 DP22 DP4 DP12 DP13 Political /Legal Financial DP1 Reassurance Patrolling/Deter Violence DP2 Force Protection/Sustainment DP3 Contractorisation DP4 International Sp for ISAF/ JCB for IA/ISAF Cohesion DP5 De-Militarised Kabul DP6 Factional and Tribal Tolerance DP14 Local Sp for ISAF DP15 DDR Programme DP16 Structural Development DP17 Manage Expectations DP18 Force Transition to FOF DP19 Reformed Armed Forces DP20 Functional Police Force DP21 Inter Theatre Land LOC Sp DP22 Loya Jirga DP7 ISAF acceptance(IA/Pop) DP8 Open KIA DP9 Power/Water/Sanitation/Med DP10 DPs relocated DP11 Sp Neutralisation of anti-IA Faction Threat DP12 Functioning Judiciary DP13 New Afghan Security Structures

15. Patrolling - Numbers - Patrol Reports - Duration Policing - Number of patrols - HQ KMNB Crime - Numbers - RMP - Types - IA Police - Rest of World - Reachback Military - Sightings - Vehicle Movements - HQ KMNB - Barracks in use - EOD data Medical - DNBI - HQ ISAF - Types - Clinic data CIMIC - Projects Completed - HQ KMNB Use of KIA - Flights - Airfield Staff Commerce - Vehicle Movements - HQ KMNB Data Types & Sources

16. Crime by Time (as at end of APR 02)

17. Headline Murder Rate

18. Target Audience Analysis

19. Info Ops • Media products to convey ISAF’s message to the people of Kabul : • ISAF Newspaper • ISAF Radio • ISAF TV • ISAF Loudspeakers • ISAF Leaflets • They wished to measure to measure Kabuli’s attitudes and the penetration of these ISAF media products.

20. Dropboxes For & Against • For: • can use to distribute other material - leaflets & newspapers • questionnaires available to all • no pressure or time limits for completion • cheap & easy to make collections • facilitates comparison of police districts • potentially large samples • Against: • security & safety issues • multiple entries by individuals • collusion • problems with illiterate people • possible access problems (location vital)

21. 1st ISAF Info Box, Spin Kalay, Police District 9

22. Summary of Conclusions: • Presence of ISAF soldiers & ISAF media products well received by the majority of Kabulis. • Most Kabulis believe the security situation has improved. • There is a good understanding of the ISAF mission. • Gaps in knowledge have been identified. • TAA is enabling targeting of Info Ops products.

23. Loya Jirga Delegates Arrival Model

25. Initial Reception • Wow! Great! Brilliant! • Must show this to the COS • “Mentioned in dispatches” • You guys don’t have anything better to do? • Is this another game?

26. Concluding Remarks

27. Lessons • Simple is good, speed of response is paramount • The earlier OA is involved the better the payoff: • Need to get the MOS-type studies underway early in order to shape them and establish data collection • Expect the utility of OA to continue throughout the operation - providing analysts are on-hand • Reach back is great but still need deployed OA • OA team often of value to HQ as source of semi-expert IT: • Continues to be the case even with increased “IT literacy” in HQ • Many tasks IT-based rather than true OA • OA standalone PC kit often in demand • Expertise with MS Office applications underlies much of our utility • Standalone nature demands IT ability within the team

28. Use of OA Outputs • GOC/COS • Interim Administration • Foreign Ministers • Visiting Senior Military • Media Ops • Info Ops / Psy Ops • UK – longer term campaign monitoring • Pte Bloggs!