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Household Budget Survey 2006-07

Household Budget Survey 2006-07

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Household Budget Survey 2006-07

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  1. Household Budget Survey2006-07 Presentation of preliminary results National Bureau of Statistics Oxford Policy Management University of Nottingham

  2. Outline of presentation • Overview of survey • Social sector indicators • Housing, household amenities and assets • Household productive activities and banking • Discussion • Consumption and consumption poverty • Discussion • Conclusions and next steps • Discussion

  3. Sample • Sample drawn from 2002 census EAs, with new HH listing undertaken • Stratified households within EAs based on socio-economic information • Listing figures often quite different from census figures and overall lower • Weights take into account these factors • 10,466 of intended 10,752 HHs analysed (97%) • Around 12% replacements

  4. Sample breakdown

  5. Data quality • Around 10,000 HHs, smaller than last time but still fairly large • NBS recent experience, some more supervision but probably still too few supervisors • Change in diary item codes complicated analysis • Data entry was quick, but should have been better controlled (eg HHID) • Hard to judge, but data quality probably similar to last time • Worth identifying lessons for next time

  6. Social sector indicators:- demographic, health, education

  7. Demographics • Small decline on reported average household size (4.9 to 4.8 -to check) • Continued rise in female-headed households • Small increase in proportion of total population and HH heads over 65

  8. Female-headed households

  9. Health • Compared with 2000/01: • Similar proportions reporting illness in the last four weeks, and similar patterns by area (rural>other urban>Dar) • No change in proportions consulting any provider when sick (69%), but • Increase in consultation at government facilities (55% to 65%) • Small increase in proportion satisfied with services in govt facilities, fewer reporting lack of drugs

  10. Consultation with govt providers

  11. Education • Compared with 2000/01: • Little change in overall adult literacy levels (but examine younger age groups) • Large increase in enrolment rates, both primary and secondary (- though sec still low) • Improvements in class attended for age of child (eg 30% of 9 year olds in school in St III, cf 13%)

  12. Net enrolment ratios - primary, lower secondary

  13. Housing, amenities and assets

  14. Housing and household amenities • Substantial improvements in use of ‘permanent’ housing materials - in all areas (Dar/OU/rural) • No change in proportion without a toilet (7%)* • Drinking water: apparent decline in piped water; partly classification changes?

  15. House construction materials (%)

  16. Drinking water supply (%)

  17. Ownership of selected consumer assets

  18. Households’ cooking energy

  19. Electricity

  20. Household productive activities and banking

  21. Household productive activities • Main activity of adults: - decline in farming - rise employment and self-employment - issue of comparability of questions (to check)

  22. Household banking and finance • Since 2000/01, modest increases in households with at least one member: - having a bank account, (but large drop 91-01) - taking a bank loan , - participating in informal (and formal) savings groups • Overall levels still low and more concentrated in urban areas

  23. Household banking and saving (% HHs with at least one member with…)

  24. Consumption and Consumption Poverty

  25. Consumption Aggregate • Two consumption aggregates were calculated: - a complete aggregate and - a more refined aggregate for the poverty estimates • Complete aggregate includes: food, durables, non durables, medical, education, telecommunications • Poverty aggregate includes food, and some durables and non durables: linen, hh equipment, clothes, personal effects, personal care, recreation, cleaning products, domestic services, contributions, fuel, petrol, soap and cigarettes

  26. Food Prices • Not straight forward given the change in item codes • matched as many item codes as possible • excluded items that could not be measured in a standard unit • or had too few observations • Left with100 food items • Laspeyres: 1.96 • National Food CPI: 1.52

  27. Non Food Prices • Began with the national CPI basket • matched item codes with the 2000/01 and 2007 surveys • dropped items with no quantity information and • dropped items with less than 10 observations • Left with 67 items • Laspeyres: 2.01 • National Non Food CPI: 1.29

  28. Non Food Prices • Constructed new basket using frequency of purchases from HBS • took items in 2007 with more than 100 records • matched item codes with the 2000/01 survey • dropped items with no quantity information • Left with 41 items • New basket: 2.37 • Results driven by large increase in prices on fuels and their increased share of expenditure, in particular firewood • Without firewood: 2.01

  29. Combining • Weighted average of food and non food used as price deflator • Combined according to the share of food and non food expenditure for the bottom 25% of the sample: 0.72and 0.28 respectively • Laspeyres 1.98 (national CPI 1.42) • Fisher 1.93

  30. Poverty Line • 2000/01 poverty line inflated using Fisher index 2000/01 2007 Food 5,295 10,219 Basic Needs 7,253 13,998

  31. Incidence of poverty - headcount

  32. % Share of expenditure for poverty aggregate

  33. % Share of expenditure for total consumption aggregate

  34. Results highly sensitive to price index • Analysis has been based on a comparable estimate • In the future thought should be given to possible changes to the consumption aggregate and basket

  35. Preliminary conclusions - I • Substantial improvements in schooling, no change in curative health services use but apparent shift to using more govt services • Worsening of water supplies and no improvement in sanitation • Improvements in housing materials and increase in the ownership of many consumer goods

  36. Preliminary conclusions - II • Continuing shift from farming to other activities • Very modest increase in real consumption levels • Very modest decline in consumption poverty (may well not be stat. significant) • However, sensitivity of poverty estimates to price index and consumption aggregate (and contrast with assets) • No changes in inequality on ‘poverty’ consumption aggregate: but increases with overall consumption aggregate