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Drought Assessment and Forecasting

World Meteorological Organization Weather, Climate and Water. Drought Assessment and Forecasting. WORKING GROUP ON HYDROLOGY REGIONAL ASSOCIATION VI (EUROPE) 11th session Toulouse, France, 25 to 27 March 2009. Giuseppina Monacelli, Maura Abbafati

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Drought Assessment and Forecasting

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  1. World Meteorological Organization Weather, Climate and Water DroughtAssessment and Forecasting WORKING GROUP ON HYDROLOGY REGIONAL ASSOCIATION VI (EUROPE) 11th session Toulouse, France, 25 to 27 March 2009 Giuseppina Monacelli, Maura Abbafati ISPRA Institute for Environmental Protection and Research Department for Inland and Marine Waters Protection e-mail: giuseppina.monacelli@apat.it; maura.abbafati@apat.it

  2. RESOLUTION 17 (XIV-RA VI) Termsofreference To review and evaluate meteorological and hydrological forecasting systems in RA VI countries with respect to droughts occurrence To assess the use of satellite data in drought monitoring, assessment and forecasting To propose ways for ensuring effective cooperation with other international and regional bodies involved in drought assessment and mitigation To identify ways of promoting the exchange of data and products, as well as of forecasts and warnings, during low flow situations To review and evaluate activities undertaken by end-user, in cooperation with NHSs, to mitigate the impacts of drought

  3. RA VI (Europe) 50 members REGION VI (EUROPE) WMO/OMM EUROPEAN UNION 27 Member States, 7 Candidate Countries Med EUWI In South & East Mediterranean: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Authority, Syria, Turkey, Tunisia. In South East Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Former Yugoslavic Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Romania, Serbia and Montenegro.

  4. DOCUMENTS EU  Ist Interim Report (2006)  IInd Interim Report (2007)  “Prolonged drought” towards a common understanding of the phenomenon and of its impacts (2007) “Drought Management Plan Report” including agricultural, drought indicators and Climate Change Aspects (2007 published 2008) Med EUWI “Mediterranean Water Scarcity and Drought Report” (2008)

  5. EVENTS Conference of the Water Directors of the Euro-Mediterranean and Southeastern European Countries Athens, Greece, 6-7 November 2006 Thematic Eionet Workshop “Water Quantity and Use” Copenhagen, Denmark, 10-11 June 2008 Medroplan WorkshopMarrakech (Morocco), 15-16 May 2007 International Forum on Drought Seville, Spain, 18-20 June 2007 MED Water Scarcity & Drought Workinggroup Session “Planificacion y gestion de la Sequia” 24 July 2008 European Day on Water Scarcity and Drought 5 September 2008

  6. WMO/OMM Communicationfrom the Commissionto the EuropeanParliament and the Council “Addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the EuropeanUnion” adopted on 18 July 2007 DROUGHTS WATER SCARCITY Rainfall deficiency Temporary situation Insufficient water resources to satisfy long-term average requirements Exacerbated by mismanagement of water resources Natural phenomenon Human-driven phenomenon DEVIATION FROM AVERAGE DEMAND > SUPPLY

  7. EU area affected by droughts in the last 30 years km2 EU population affected by droughts in the last 30 years Mio inhabitants WMO/OMM Why a Communication on water scarcity and droughts? 1. Increasing impacts of water scarcity and droughts in past 30 years Significant increase in annual average EU area (from 6% to 13%) and population (from 6% to 13%) affected by droughts between 1976-1990 period and 1991-2006 period Source: Member State data, Commission, November 2006

  8. Low Water Stress Medium Water Stress Severe Water Stress WMO/OMM 2. Expected impacts of climate change and economic development Proportion of severe water stress EU river basins likely to increase from 19% today to 35% by 2070 Areas affected by droughts will increase Water stress: withdrawals-to-availability ratio If T° rises by 2 to 3°C water scarcity would affect 1.1 to 3.2 billion people Source: Eurowasser study, University of Kassel

  9. WMO/OMM What challenges need to be addressed? Water Framework Directive needs to be fully implemented Address ineffective water pricing policies Improve land-use planning and water allocation between economic sectors Address waste of water and policy-making priorities Integration of water-related issues into sectoral policies Knowledge gaps need to be filled

  10. WMO/OMM What policy options have been identified? Putting the right price tag on water Allocating water and water-related funding more efficiently Improving drought risk management Considering additional water supply infrastructures Fostering water efficient technologies and practices Fostering the emergence of a water-saving culture in Europe Improve knowledge and data collection

  11. Improvingdroughtrisk management drought risk management plans observatory and early warning system on droughts optimising the use of the EU Solidarity Fund and European Mechanism for Civil Protection Drought Management Centre for South-Eastern Europe (DMCSEE) REPORT EDO European Drought Observatory

  12. WMO/OMM Improveknowledge and data collection Develop a water scarcity and drought Information System across Europe (information on extent, impacts of water scarcity and drought issues description on the basis of agreed indicators) Disseminate the results of research on water scarcity and drought issues Enhance and encourage research on technological activities under the 7th Community Research Framework Programme

  13. WMO/OMM WMO Hydrology Network discussion forum http://www.whycos.org/hnforum/index.php

  14. WMO/OMM

  15. WMO/OMM

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