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Enabling Activities for the Preparation of Jamaica’s Second National Communication to the UNFCC

Enabling Activities for the Preparation of Jamaica’s Second National Communication to the UNFCC. Water Resources and Agriculture Dr. Mark Futter Initial V&A Workshop 5 th November 2007. Outline. A short history lesson…. What do we want to achieve with the SNC ….?

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Enabling Activities for the Preparation of Jamaica’s Second National Communication to the UNFCC

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  1. Enabling Activities for the Preparation of Jamaica’s Second National Communication to the UNFCC • Water Resources and Agriculture • Dr. Mark Futter • Initial V&A Workshop • 5th November 2007

  2. Outline • A short history lesson…. • What do we want to achieve with the SNC ….? • How are we going to get there….? • How vulnerable are we now….? • How will we assess vulnerabilities and develop adaptation strategies under future climate…? • Concluding comments

  3. A short history lesson….the INC….. It will be a widely read document that is easily accessible to all It will have “ownership” by a wide range of stakeholders (public, private & voluntary sectors) It will lead to positive policy changes and programmes to reduce vulnerability for all Jamaicans It will be a document that informs Jamaica’s sustainable development

  4. What do we want to achieve with the SNC…? “The consultant will be required to conduct integrated assessments of biophysical effects and the potential socio-economic impacts on the agricultural and water resources sectors of Jamaica. The assessments must determine the vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and the adaptation measures that will be required to mitigate these effects”

  5. What do we want to achieve with the SNC…?

  6. What do we want to achieve with the SNC…?

  7. How are we going to get there…..? • UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework • NAPA Guidance • UKCIP World Development Global GHG Global climate models Impacts Vulnerability (physical) Global Climate Adaptation Policy Vulnerability (social) Adaptive Capacity Indicators based on: Economic resources; technology; Information & skills, institutions, Equity Local • IPCC Seven Steps • U.S. Country Studies Program • UNEP Handbook Past Present Future

  8. How are we going to get there…..? 1. Scope project • UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework 2. Assess current vulnerability 3. Characterize future climate-related risks Increase adaptive capacity Engagestakeholders 4. Develop adaptation strategy 5. Continue adaptation process

  9. How vulnerable are we now …? PIOJ Agriculture Production Index 1986-2006 1986=100

  10. How vulnerable are we now …? Banana Crop: Hurricane Ivan destroyed the entire crop, for export and domestic consumption. 8,000 people out of work for 6-9 months until crop production resumes Coffee Crop: Ivan led to loss of berries in 45% of coffee producing areas and destruction of 5% of coffee trees. Withdrawal of some farmers from production due to expense of insurance coupled with low world prices

  11. How vulnerable are we now …? Sugar Cane Crop: Hurricane Ivan led to broken and uprooted canes as well as flooding in large areas Impact is to reduce sugar content , decrease sugar yield and increase processing costs Livestock production: poultry, goats and pigs were most affected by Ivan and milk production decreased due to the death of dairy cattle

  12. How vulnerable are we now …? • Annual Water Resources Balance for 2005 • (units 106m3/yr)

  13. How vulnerable are we now …? Significant losses in water distribution systems Investment in improved water resources management Lack of surface reservoir storage Saline intrusion into coastal aquifers

  14. How will we assess adaption measures for future climate …? Climate Scenarios Socio-Economic (Baseline) Scenario(s) Water Resources Development Plan Water Balance Model Sectoral Adaptation Measures Water Balance Model WMU Results REVIEW PROGRESS YES NO Vulnerability Reduced ?

  15. How will we assess adaption measures for future climate …?

  16. Challenges….. Scale and complexity of problem (dependencies) Project resources Project timetable Availability of tools

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