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What’s Normal? 26-29 June 2011

What’s Normal? 26-29 June 2011. Edward J. Hopkins, Assistant Wisconsin State Climatologist Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin-Madison. Background. “Normals” Way of depicting an expected climate state based upon statistics over a long-time span.

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What’s Normal? 26-29 June 2011

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  1. What’s Normal?26-29 June 2011 Edward J. Hopkins, Assistant Wisconsin State ClimatologistDept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic SciencesUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison

  2. Background “Normals” Way of depicting an expected climate state based upon statistics over a long-time span. What normals include: Averages Frequencies Percentiles Standardized International Agreement National Weather Service and National Climatic Data Center following international agreement to update the 30-year “normals” every ten years.

  3. Background (con’t.) Why 30-year time length? Climate is always changing! Three-decade time-span deemed appropriate Not too long to cover-up long-term changes in climate Not too short for an uneven set of statistics due to year-to-year or decadal changes in weather & climate. Current climate normal interval covers 1971-2000 averaging period, but wait…

  4. Long-term temperature record

  5. Modifying the normals

  6. Modifying the normals

  7. Modifying the normals

  8. Modifying the normals

  9. Modifying the normals

  10. Modifying the normals

  11. Modifying the normals

  12. New Normals National Climatic Data Center is computing new normals of station temperature (maximum, minimum and average), precipitation, snowfall and snow cover heating and cooling degree day information. Normals for all these variables will be for daily, monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. For 250 Local Climatological Data stations: Hourly averages will include humidity & wind information.

  13. Climate Stations Temperature ~7500 stations Precipitation~8700 stations Snow ~ 6400 stations Snow depth~5300 stations Hourly ~260 stations

  14. New Normals Schedule 1 July 2011 -- New 1981-2010 normals of temperature, precipitation & degree days made available to public. 1 Aug 2011 --NWS begins use on workstations. 31 Dec 2011 --All other normals (the “ag normals”).

  15. Preliminary Results Changes between 1971/2000 & 1981/2010 due to: Changes in climate Changes in stations, instruments & observing procedures New normal temperatures Slightly higher than previous normals for many areas of nation. Due to inclusion of warm 2000-2009 interval. Increases in temperature are not uniform across nation and from season to season.

  16. How do new normals differ? Source: A. Arguez, NCDC (Jun 2011) Summer – Jul Max Temps

  17. How do new normals differ? Source: A. Arguez, NCDC (Jun 2011) Winter – Jan Min Temps

  18. Changes for Wisconsin

  19. Changes for Wisconsin

  20. For more information • NCDChttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/newnormals.html • Or email stclim@aos.wisc.edufrom http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco

  21. The Wisconsin State Climatology Office Web Pagehttp://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco

  22. Views of State Climatology Office

  23. 19th Century Weather Data

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