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PROFESSIONAL CAREERS IN THE COMING GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION

PROFESSIONAL CAREERS IN THE COMING GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION. Peter R. Rose AAPG PRESIDENT November 2005. THINKING ABOUT CAREERS - 1. Career. “Not just what happens to you between University and Retirement.”

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PROFESSIONAL CAREERS IN THE COMING GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION

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  1. PROFESSIONAL CAREERS IN THE COMING GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION Peter R. Rose AAPG PRESIDENT November 2005

  2. THINKING ABOUT CAREERS - 1 Career • “Not just what happens to you between University and Retirement.” • A Life Journey that, despite Life’s uncertainties, needs planning, guiding, preparation, execution, decision-making, and help from others. • “Career crises” -- Dangers? or Opportunities? Prepare for them before they occur. Chance favors the prepared mind.

  3. THINKING ABOUT CAREERS - 2 Mentoring • Archetypal human relationship • Mutual decision to join into by older person and younger person • Essential for professional careers

  4. THINKING ABOUT CAREERS - 3 What are you now? • Student? Scientist? Employee? What will you be in 6 years? • Technician? Scientist? Employee? PROFESSIONAL

  5. PROFESSIONAL “. . . continually pursues and becomes proficient in a specialized occupation requiring substantial skill and/or education, and involving elements of learned study, personal dedication, and service to mankind.” “. . . traditionally Law, Medicine, and the Clergy; now Engineering, Architecture, and Accounting.” “An attitude involving personal endorsement of consistently high standards of knowledge, work performance, and conduct . . . and requiring a willingness to be accountable.”

  6. OBLIGATIONS OF E&P PROFESSIONALS • Recognize Inherent Fiduciary Responsibility • Honor Professional Tenets: • Objectivity • Technically Current • Thoroughness • Candor • Team Work • Inescapably Tied to Ethics

  7. Status of World Exploration: Well Advanced (Conventional) INCREASING TECHNOLOGY SMALLER, LEANER, MORE CHALLENGING! INCREASING NEW THEATERS IHS

  8. GLOBAL LARGE FIELD DISCOVERIES (> 50 MMBOE) (Excludes U.S. / Canada) 1600 1400 1200 > 1BBOE 1000 500 MMBOE -1 BBOE 200 - 500 MMBOE 800 100 - 200 MMBOE 600 50 - 100 MMBOE 400 25 - 50 MMBOE 200 0 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990-99 WHILE THE RATE OF DISCOVERY FOR GLOBAL SCALE (>1 BBOE) DISCOVERIES HAS DECREASED SINCE 1980, OPPORTUNITIES FOR SMALLER (BUT SIGNIFICANT) FIELDS HAVE REMAINED HIGH Petroconsultants

  9. Status of World Exploration: Discovery Parameters over Time 1000 GLOBAL FIELD SIZES AND NUMBERS MEAN 100 MMBOE, OR NUMBER OF FIELDS NUMBER OF GIANTS (> 1000 MMBOE) 10 MEDIAN 1 1920‘s 1930‘s 1940‘s 1950‘s 1960‘s 1970‘s 1980‘s 1990‘s IHS

  10. GLOBAL DISCOVERY PERCENTAGES (Excludes U.S. / Canada) 25000 26% 20000 24% 27% 15000 24% 10000 5000 0 1960's 1970's 1980's '90-99 12250 13864 19297 15842 WILDCATS 2955 3734 5117 3794 FIELDS ‘WILDCAT CHANCE’ (RATIO OF WILDCATS TO FIELDS) HAS REMAINED REMARKABLY CONSTANT THROUGH TIME. Petroconsultants

  11. GLOBAL DISCOVERY PERCENTAGES (Excludes U.S. / Canada) 25000 2.0% 20000 1.9% 4.2% 15000 4.1% 10000 5000 0 1960's 1970's 1980's '90-99 12250 13864 19297 15842 NUMBER WILDCATS 503 581 394 303 FIELDS > 100 MMBOE THE RATIO OF WILDCATS TO DISCOVERIES >100MMBOE HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY SINCE 1980, BUT MAY HAVE 'LEVELED OFF'. Petroconsultants

  12. A CHALLENGING DECADE • Growing Demand • New Technologies • Challenging Theaters 2005 2015 Status of World Exploration GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND, BBOE per yr 120 100 ALTERNATIVE 80 ENERGY SOURCES COAL 60 NATURAL GAS 40 NGL 20 OIL, NGL & TAR SANDS CRUDE OIL TAR SANDS OIL SHALE 1900 2000 2100 Edwards (1997)

  13. Status of World Exploration • Advancing Technologies • Challenging Theaters • Need for Efficiency • Declining Resource Base • Growing Demand • Fewer Elephants, Plenty of Antelopes • Adequate Capital • Previous Loss of Credibility Do we have the Vision, Discipline, and the Will? Can we do it Efficiently with Exploration?

  14. FUTURE AND ULTIMATE POTENTIAL ESTIMATES THROUGH TIME 5,000 5,000 TOTAL DISCOVERED 4,000 4,000 FUTURE POTENTIAL M M B O E 3,000 3,000 ULTIMATE POTENTIAL 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 '85 '91 '94 '88 '90 '94 OIL CO USGS WHILE MORE AND MORE OIL AND GAS HAVE BEEN DISCOVERED, ESTIMATES OF FUTURE POTENTIAL HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE Brown, 1999

  15. GLOBAL ULTIMATE ENDOWMENT* OIL/NGL GAS FUTURE UNDISCOVERED (MEAN) 670 BBL 4,400 TCFG/ 770 BBOE 300 (Campbell ‘97) 680 (USGS ‘95) 27% 38% 2,400 (Campbell) 5,800 (USGS) REMAINING RESERVES 1,100 BBL 1,020 ( O & GJ ‘97 ) 45% 5,800 TCFG/ 1,000 BBOE 50% 4,900 ( O & GJ ) CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION 28% 700 BBL 1,400 TCFG/ 250 BBOE 12% 2,500 BBL 2,100 / 11.6 BBOE / MTCFG *Gas converted at 5.6BCF = 1MMBOE

  16. RESOURCE TRIANGLE LARGE TARGETS ENGINEERING - GEOLOGY SMALL TARGETS SEISMIC - GEOLOGY FIRST CLASS IMPROVED TECHNOLOGY LOWER GRADE RESERVOIRS HIGHER PRICE HUGE TARGETS RESEARCH LOWEST GRADE RESERVOIRS

  17. Reserve Growth (305) Undiscovered, Unconventional Unassessed Unconventional Reserves (400) Geopressured Brine (Up to 24,000) Gas Hydrate (Up to 300,000) Natural Gas Resource Availability 1999 NPC Study (NPC, 1999b) Recoverable Portion of In-Place US Gas Resource (Tcf) Known Reserves Cumulative Production (811) Reserves (157) Increasing development costs, technology needs, uncertainty, and decreasing concentration Reserves (1,004) Not Assessed by NPC Tinker, 2005

  18. Tinker, UTBEG, 2004

  19. V o l g a - U r a l R e g i o n W e s t S i b e r i a n B a s i n N o r t h S e a G r a b e n ( 9 9 . 2 T c f ) ( 1 , 2 7 1 . 8 T c f ) ( 1 6 0 . 6 T c f ) N . C a s p i a n B a s i n A m u - D a r y a B a s i n N o r t h w e s t W e s t e r n G u l f ( 1 5 6 . 9 ) T c f ( 2 3 0 . 4 T c f ) G e r m a n B a s i n ( 2 5 1 . 6 T c f ) ( 1 4 1 . 7 T c f ) G r a n d E r g / A h n e t B a s i n G u l f C e n o z o i c O C S ( 1 1 4 . 2 T c f ) ( 1 4 0 . 3 T c f ) Q a t a r A r c h ( 4 6 5 . 6 T c f ) Z a g r o s F o l d B e l t ( 3 9 9 . 4 T c f ) E a s t V e n e z u e l a B a s i n M e s o p o t a m i a n F r d p . B s n . ( 2 9 8 . 3 T c f ) G r e a t e r G h a w a r U p l i f t ( 2 4 8 . 6 T c f ) ( 1 2 9 . 7 T c f ) R u b A l K h a l i B a s i n ( 1 8 2 . 3 T c f ) Natural Gas Resource Base ~3870 Tcf in Major Basins ~13,000 Tcf Total Resources Underestimates unconventional gas Does not include brines or hydrates Current annual global consumption is ~90 Tcf USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 MAJOR GAS BASINS OF THE WORLD (Resources in Tcf)

  20. CRUDE OIL A GLOBAL COMMODITY

  21. SPECIALTIES YOU MAY NOT REALIZE THAT YOU ARE GOING TO NEED - 1 Clear Communication Skills • Speaking • Writing • Active Listening • Interpersonal Skills • Tact • Teamwork • Goal-setting • Practical Statistics • E&P a “Repeated-Trials Game” • Applied to geologic & geotechnical parameters • Statistics, the Language of Uncertainty

  22. SPECIALTIES YOU MAY NOT REALIZE THAT YOU ARE GOING TO NEED - 2 Economics and Finance • Geoscience Results Usually have Economic Implications • Perceptions of Future Profit drives Geotechnical Projects • Geoscientists can Take Control of their Destiny • Ethics • Most Geoscience Projects have Fiduciary Components • Need for Scientific and Personal Integrity • Importance of Living within your Means

  23. CAREER COUNSEL FOR GEOSCIENTISTS • You are a professional -- with professional responsibilities and privileges • Join professional associations and be active -- build personal networks • Don’t self-limit -- give yourself room to grow -- power in integrating geo-specialties • Learn some business economics -- don’t let others assess your projects’ values • Become a lifelong student -- your University Diploma is a permanent license to learn, not a “Union Card”. • Secrets of success: • Competence • Good work habits • Integrity • Responsiveness • Contacts • Enterprise

  24. PROFESSIONAL CAREERS IN THE COMING GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION Peter R. Rose AAPG PRESIDENT November 2005

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