CLIVAR SSG-14 - Development of a CLIVAR Road Map

1. CLIVAR SSG-14 - Development of a CLIVAR Road Map Howard Cattle International CLIVAR Project Office National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK

2. WCRP Strategic frameworkCoordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System Reiterates WCRP objectives to determine the predictability of climate and the effect of human activities on climate Seeks to facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth System variability and change for practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society

3. WCRP Strategic Framework • Move from physics-only to Earth-System models (with IGBP) • Prediction across all timescales “seamless prediction”. • Develop sustained climate observing system with GCOS, GEOSS… • Integration of models and data • Use of data assimilation to initialize models over widest range of climate prediction timescales possible • Synthesis through reanalysis (atmosphere, ocean, coupled) • Link to applications through existing mechanisms (e.g. START, WCAP) & new ones

4. CLIVAR SSG-14, Buenos Aires, April 2006 • SSG-14 agenda built on outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and the CLIVAR Assessment/SSG-13 (Baltimore June 2004). • SSG-13 refocussed CLIVAR onto the cross-cutting topics of: • ENSO and other modes of tropical variability • Monsoons • Decadal variability and the thermohaline circulation • Anthropogenic climate change (ACC)

5. CLIVAR SSG-14, Buenos Aires, April 2006 SSG-13 aslo: • Re-emphasized CLIVAR’s responsibility for study of the role of the oceans in climate under WCRP and • CLIVAR’s key role in climate modelling and prediction • Sought ways to develop links to applications of CLIVAR science

6. SSG-14 • Sought development of CLIVAR Roadmap against science themes of ENSO/TV, Monsoons, Decadal/THC, ACC, Role of Oceans in Climate, Global Modeling & Prediction. • Was organized around a series of mini-assessments of current status of each themes. • Background of sponsor/context setting WCRP, IOC, WMO, IGBP

7. SSG-14 - procedure for “mini assessments” • For each theme area: • Theme Lead Overview: State of science, current status, science directions, needs provided both as written papers & presentations • Roundtable contributions: How is CLIVAR addressing this theme? Panel & Working Group contributions to crosscut theme • Theme Assessor: Developing the road map, path ahead. Synthesis. Gap analysis, redundancies. What will we do by 2007, 2010, 2013? Where will we be at these milestones?

8. CLIVAR Road Map - key timescales/issues IPCC AR5, (Assume Report by 2013 with inputs by 2011) CLIVAR “sunset date” of 2013 - what will be the legacy of CLIVAR What will follow CLIVAR (and sunsets of other WCRP Projects - issue for the JSC)

9. CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsENSO and other modes of tropical variability • Tropical ocean observing system • Develop and sustain the tropical ocean observing system; implement the Indian Ocean array as a component of Indian Ocean observing system development • Realise key planned CLIVAR field experiments, • e.g. TACE, PUMP, …. • Improve representation of the background state, and of tropical modes of variability in coupled models for S-I prediction and in time for IPCC AR5 • Develop experimental decadal prediction for tropics. • Establish sensitivity of ENSO to past climate change using paleoclimate proxies and coordinated modelling experiments

10. CLIVAR Road MapENSO & other modes of tropical variability

11. CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsMonsoons • Build on CLIVAR VAMOS SALLJEX, NAME field experiments; AMMA… to help improve predictive model capabilities • Progressive improvement and transition of predictive capabilities from research/experimental to operations and applications • Improve understanding and representation in models of the diurnal cycle, intraseasonal variability and the tropical mean state • Support for concept of year of coordinated observing, modeling and forecasting of the tropics for 2008, to address challenge of organised convection • Develop understanding of the role of ocean variability for the monsoons, with ocean basin panels

12. CLIVAR Road MapMonsoons

13. CLIVAR Road Map - Monsoons Coordinate with GEWEX on A-A Monsoon (Monsoon-Asian Hydro-Atmospheric Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative MAHASRI), CEOP II/CIMS); GEWEX input to VOCALS NAME AMMA JOINT MESA MONSOON LA PLATA VOCALS Existing GEWEX-CLIVAR Interactions Future CLIVAR- GEWEX Interactions

14. CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsDecadal variability and the THC • Seek to reduce uncertainties regarding mechanisms of MOC variability and views on whether its is changing/slowing • Sustained monitoring the MOC (including identification of proxies for monitoring) • Improve understanding of mechanisms of decadal-interdecadal MOC variability • Establish extent to which decadal prediction is possible • Move to initialization-based approaches to decadal predictability studies Quadfasel (2005)

15. CLIVAR Road MapDecadal variability and the THC

16. CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsAnthropogenic climate change (1) • Develop Earth System Models through WGCM with IGBP for input to AR5; coordination of AR5 runs • Understand feedbacks introduced by new components and reduce uncertainties in their representation • Develop Climate Change Detection and Monitoring Studies • Key effort on ocean indices; inputs to AR5; • Synthesis of Climate Change Detection and Monitoring indices as part of CLIVAR legacy

17. CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsAnthropogenic climate change (2) • “Climate change - The CLIVAR perspective” • 2007 - pan-CLIVAR review paper on assessment of anthropogenic forcing on natural models of variability, based on AR4 integrations & atmosphere/ocean data analysis • 2013 repeat, but based on IPCC AR5 (Earth System Model) integrations • 2010 • Pan-CLIVAR assessment of the merits of the WCRP seamless prediction strategy (weather to long term climate change) • Viewpoint on best way of organizing ACC research post-CLIVAR

18. CLIVAR Road MapAnthropogenic Climate Change

19. CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsModelling (1) • WGCM lead in Earth System model development (with IGBP); realisation in AR5 runs • Development of decadal predictions • TFSP global seasonal prediction experiment: “There is currently untapped seasonal predictability due to interactions (& memory) among all the elements of the climate system” • Analysis of outcomes; improved prospects for seasonal prediction. Continued experimentation; realisation in operational centres • Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiments; ocean model development activities; analysis of outcomes; input to AR5; state of the art ocean models

20. CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsModelling (2) • Development of ocean reanalyses + coupled reanalysis concept (with WOAP) including d/a aspects; Realization of multiple model reanalyses; input to AR5 development of coupled reanalyses; Syntheses as part of “CLIVAR legacy; initial coupled reanalyses • Various MIPS/numerical experiments (e.g. CFMIP, GLACE etc). Spin off to AR5 models; inputs to operational centres • CLIVAR role in development of WCRP “seamless prediction” concept (through WMP)

21. CLIVAR Road MapModelling

22. Ocean observations/CLIVAR legacy (1) • Continue close cooperation with OOPC & others through CLIVAR Basin Panels and CLIVAR Global Synthesis & Observation Panel to develop sustained ocean observing system • Complete & validate multiple global reanalyses in time for IPCC AR5; assess ocean component of coupled reanalyses • Stimulate international activity to evaluate the current state & development vector of the global ocean observing system (revisit OceanObs’99 in 2008 timeframe?) • Aim by the end of CLIVAR to have: • Developed a global description of subsurface ocean variability • Have in place a truly global ocean observation system

23. Ocean observations/CLIVAR legacy (1) • Subgroup of SSG to work on 2013 vision/legacy & develop data management requirements • Choose a few foci crafted around the ocean’s role in climate: e.g. • Exchange (with atmosphere); including joint global flux project (with GEWEX) focused around water cycle • Storage (heat/salt/CO2) • Transports and utilise new observing capabilities to develop key datasets for CLIVAR legacy • Develop common climate indices for models/observations as component • Develop concept of post-CLIVAR activity (with GEWEX/IGBP). Possible theme of data synthesis decade post-CLIVAR

24. CLIVAR Road MapOceans & Climate/CLIVAR legacy

25. Performance metrics for CLIVAR  New resources enabled by leveraging off of CLIVAR efforts, (e.g. $15M GEF funding of LPB, ESF MedCLIVAR, Climate Process Teams, AR4 analyses)  Improvements in: 1. the spectral character (i.e. spectral power, frequency) and 2. predictability of ISO, seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in coupled models  Number of global ocean observation deployments and transition of process study and research observations to operational status (e.g.TAO)  Reduction of uncertainty in climate models, bias reduction, and the number of new parameterizations incorporated into operational models (e.g. CPT on marine stratus, VOCALS)  Metric tracking capacity building within and incorporation of developing nations into CLIVAR activities (e.g. efforts within VAMOS, VACS, AAMP)  Global and regional data products enabled by CLIVAR (e.g., global ocean data renalyses, African Climate Atlas)

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