Three-Day Information Sharing & Analytics Orientation www.oss.netwww.earth-intelligence.net Words for Each Slide in Notes
Security Risk Assessment Security Risk Management Report United Nations System in Lebanon If and when the United Nations chooses to accept the US Department of Defense offer to fund the office of an Assistant Secretary General for Decision Support, this is the notional briefing that we would use to begin training toward the day when every element of the United Nations System is a collector, producer, and consumer of legal ethical decision support information and analysis.
DSS Mission Statement • The Department of Safety and Security is responsible for providing leadership, operational support and oversight of the security management system to enable the safest and most efficient conduct of the programmes and activities of the United Nations System. • Observation: Information is the modern means for achieving security, both for protection of UN personnel, facilities, organizations, and missions, and for the host member states and indigenous or migrant populations.
Threat Risk Assessments are delayed & incomplete Threat Risk Assessments do not reflect 360° UN System view nor regional/adjacent threat information Threat Risk Assessments do not have a well-founded directory of Indicators, Accelerators, and Triggers relevant to UN System security. UN Missions & individual UN agencies or forces have no integrated decision-support mechanism helpful to one and all. UN System has no global directory of sources with defined biases, sponsors, or agendas. UN System is not perceived as having an effective but totally moral, legal, ethical information system helpful to both the UN System & Host Government. UN System does not have safe, efficient, or reliable (constant) means of sharing helpful information across all UN System boundaries (agencies, countries, missions, locations) UN System information is not efficiently acquired, exploited, or shared UN System has no means for identifying relevant sources, softwares, and services for multinational information sharing and internal analytics. DSS Deficiencies of Concern • UN System is not recognizing information as a major contributor to security.
We Must Connect DPA DPI DPKO DSS All Other Participating Groups UNIIIC UNIFIL ESCWA DSS UNTSO UNDOF Three P’s Posture Perception Political Compromise Fundamentals Food & Water Shelter Clothing Education Security JOC/JMAC useful model Member Nations creating Open Source Intelligence units (e.g. Scotland Yard) that have been very effective in achieving improved security. DSS Host Overview Sharing Legal Ethical Information Can Enhance Security & Performance for All
POLITICAL COMPROMISE MEDIA MANAGEMENT MANDATE & MISSION POSTURE & PERCEPTION INFORMATION MANAGEMENT OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES PHYSICAL SECURITY TECHNICAL SECURITY HUMAN INTELLIGENCE (Defensive Passive Counter-Surveillance, Surveillance Detection, NOT Offensive Penetration) Nine Pillars of Vulnerability Mitigation in UN System Security Information—Open, Legal, Ethical Information—is the Essential Means for Mitigating All Nine UN System Vulnerabilities While Also Contributing to UN System Efficiency in Every Organization, at Every Level, for Every Function and Mission.
IOSAS Integrated Open Source Analytical Support UNODIN United Nations Open-Source Decision-Support Information Network Conceptual Opportunity Mission Joint Operations Centers and Force Joint Military Analysis Centers exist now, at an elementary level as conceptualized by MajGen Cammaert. Our endeavors will over time dramatically improve both JOC & JMAC concepts, doctrine, manning, equipping, training, outsourcing, sourcing, & analytics. Our objective over the next 20 years is to establish a global grid that makes the UN System the world’s best Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support capability in support of peace and prosperity. Information should be the nerves, blood, and brain of the UN System.
1 2 Open Source Information Goal of the Training Initiative • The goal of this training initiative is to find ways to efficiently and effectively navigate the broad spectrum of open source material available, and to integrate pertinent elements of the 80% into the 20% available from currently recognized national and UN sources into an Integrated Open Source Analytic Support (IOSAS) mechanism. • Host Country National/Military Security, Diplomatic Missions • UNDSS, DPA, DPI, Other UN Agencies, Other NGO
Thursday Introductions of Participants Strategic View of Multinational Information Operations Discussion of Two Online Guides with Links: www.oss.net/BASIC www.oss.net/LIBRARY Discussion of Current Event Information Participant Identification of Top Issues for Discussion Sources & Methods (eg NATO) How to Create a Wiki for Any Mission (eg30 ExpertWiki) NOTE: This gathering has three purposes: To introduce six UN Lebanon groups to one another in person for improved sharing & support. To identify global online and offline resources immediately available, free, to all participants.& their colleagues To begin the process, with this “Class Before One” of defining how best to enhance UN access to and exploitation of multinational information among DSS, DPA, DPI, IM. Friday Sources 24/7 Call-In Number Eight Sharing Tribes Source Directory Belief Systems Financial Sources Subscription Sources Password-Protected Methods Internet Speed Online versus Personal Cultural Factors Creating Flow Forecasting Summaries & Opinions Indicators, Accelerants, & Triggers (Share & Improve) Empowering Technologies Ingestion Sense-Making Sharing SILOBREAKER Organizational Engineering The Boss The Source The Budget The Public Three-Day Plan • Saturday • Security Risk Assessment (Training Exercise) • Brief Senior Person from Each of Six UN Elements • Establish missing Essential Elements of Information (EEI) • Discuss the needs of senior officers (e.g. Commissioner, spokesperson for UNIFIL) • Open Dialog • Challenge Questions • Specify follow-up actions for instructor and for participants in next thirty days • Instructor to develop a proposed syllabus for UN DSS open source decision support information network (UNODIN) and with help from participants, a draft UN Handbook on Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support. • NOTE: all opinions are personal and off the record.
Class Before One • A training concept—before the first “official” class, there is always a “Class Before One” that helps develop the need, the solution, and the presentation. • You are the Class Before One. Be very proud of this, each of you is a UN System decision-support pioneer.
Open Everything:The Path to Peace & Prosperity Information Management is the center of gravity for UN System.
US public scared back into reading and thinking; 75K amputees, GAO declares USA insolvent, 27 secessionist movements, “home rule” up, and corporate personality down. Here in 2007! We were here in 2006… Critical Junctures 9-11 & Katrina, then multiple policy failures Public Advantage I
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL OLD LEADERS DECIDE SECRET SOURCES & METHODS OBSCURE DETAIL TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG OBVIOUS DETAIL OPEN SOURCES & METHODS PEOPLE DECIDE NEW BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES Public Advantage II Sustainable Reality-Based Transpartisan Budgets Localized Resilience
Expert Forum Shared Shared Calendar Rolodex Distance Virtual Learning Library Shared Virtual 24/7 Plot Budget Weekly Review Public Advantage III
National Military Law Enforcement Business Academic NGO-Media Citizen+ Public Advantage IV
Public Advantage V This is the real “End Game” Advantage II
Organizations Fateh Al-Islam Al Qaeda Gama´a al-IslamiyyaFatah Party Show More Key Phrases Refugee CampTerrorist GroupMartyrdomAllotment Show More Topics Civil Disruption / RiotsDemocratizationLand ForcesTerritorial Disputes Show More Cities Tripoli (Libya) Beirut Damascus ʿAmman Show More Countries Lebanon Syria United States Israel Show More Current Story Lebanon: Fatah al-Islam No. 2 killed • www.beta.silobreaker.com is the single best tool, free for now • Expect to pay $400 a year if UN does not make a special deal for all. • Instant 360° view of any topic, e.g. El Fatah al-Islam • Sense-making tools can be applied to both their content and yours. Documents matching your search Documents | StoriesAll (67) | News (67) | Reports (0) | Blogs (0) | Audio/Video (0) | Fact Sheets (0) Documents Sort by: Date | Relevance While Gaza burns Haaretz 08/21/2007 Quotes...near the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el-Bared where Fatah Islam militants have been fighting Lebanese soldiers for more than two months. "Cabinet was informed by Interior Minister Hassan Sabei that Lebanese security forces have killed the Fatah Islam's No 2 in the Abu Samra neighbourhood" in Tripoli, Aridi told reporters following a Cabinet meeting last night [08/07/2007] DDI News - Lebanon announces killing Fatah Islam deputy commander The group said it was bringing the 'good news to the Muslims of the martyrdom of a noble brother,' according to the statement. "We in the Fatah Islam movement and all the true mujahideen, pledge to God to avenge our brother's blood from the infidels and the renegades" The authenticity of the statement, posted on a Web site which commonly carries messages from Al Qaeda and other militant groups, could not be independently... [08/09/2007] FOXNews.com - Fatah Islam's No. 2 Killed by Lebanese Troops
Intelligence = Decision Support • Intelligence is a process that creates decision-support. • It is NOT defined by secret sources & methods. • The Brahimi Report, Military Advisors to the Secretary General, and The High Level Threat Panel all validate urgency of creating a UN/NGO global decision support and multinational information sharing network.
Orientation, Not Micro-Training • You will learn more on your own, and by sharing with one another, than can be taught here in three days • www.oss.net/BASIC has the primary links • www.oss.net/LIBRARY has 30,000 pages from 650+ speakers, this directory can be sorted and also searched • Consider viewing the lectures and movies first, especially the lectures on Analysis & New Rules, and the movie on Creating the World Brain.
Four D’s Discovery Discrimination Distillation Delivery If you do nothing else, read the Analytic Tradecraft booklet by Jack Davis, easily accessed online, free, via www.oss.net/BASIC. Facts Are Not Enough History Cultural Context Adjacent Players Localized Indicators, Accelerators, Triggers Sharing 24/7 Cast a Wide Net Wild Cards Abound Thinking Matters More Than Technology Analysis is a Profession
Poverty Infectious Disease Environmental Degradation Inter-State Conflict Civil War Genocide Other Atrocities Proliferation Terrorism Transnational Crime Ten High-Level Threats Every Mission Confronts These Ten Threats One Way or Another— Avoid Narrow Focus, Always See the Forest, Not Just The Tree in Front of You
Open Sources & Ten Threats • Economic and social threats including 95% • poverty, 99% • infectious disease and 95% • environmental degradation 90% • Inter-State conflict 75% • Internal conflict, including 90% • civil war, 80% • genocide and 95% • other large-scale atrocities 95% • Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological weapons (proliferation) 75% • Terrorism 80% • Transnational organized crime 80% On balance, open sources are more than adequate to understand and address the ten high-level threats, but the UN System’s Information Management is not.
Agriculture Diplomacy Economy Education Energy Family Health Immigration/Migration Justice Security Society Water Twelve Action Areas Every Mission Has Narrow Channels and Deep Bureaucracies. Information Sharing is a Proper Ethical Means for Enhancing Effectiveness. If Any Action Area is Overlooked, Boss Needs to Know This.
Prediction/Prevention Retaliation Self protection Environmental Security Analysis Cannot Do It All • Improve Sources • Improve Sharing • Improve Analysis • Improve Decisions by Supported Bosses You Everyone Else
Surprise Casualty Potential Probability Model for Analytic Purpose
Hezbollah, Iran, Regional SurpriseWarning, meaning, need, elsewhere Probability: High Damage: Very High Surprise: Strikes Outside of Lebanon, Not by Hezbollah • 14 Aug 07 News Release • Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah promises “surprise” if Israel attacks Lebanon again. • Hezbollah has not been disarmed—15,000 rockets remain hidden (other source) • Lebanon divided, Israeli soldiers still captive, situation is volatile • Direct negotiations could help, truth & reconciliation • Israel may not appreciate full extent of Iranian ability to provide supporting attacks, e.g. exploding buildings in Tel Aviv, cutting of US land supply line from Kuwait to Baghdad, Sunburn missile attack against Maritime Force. • Israel, not Iran or Syria, is the most likely to take unilateral violent action that will trigger the “surprise.” Israel 9-11 in Tel Aviv
INFORMATION The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use! Available Information Actionable Intelligence TIME Why Analysts Are Special Complex Organizations are Drowning in Information. Analytic Tradecraft, Applied by Analysts, is the Solution.
Levels of Analysis: Threat Changes! Over time and space Channels & Borders Of strategic value STRATEGIC Integrated Application Military Sustainability Geographic Location Civil Allies Quantities & Distribution Internally available for use Volatility of sectors OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place Military Availability Geographic Resources Civil Stability Training & Maintenance Mobility implications Cohesion & Effectiveness TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources Military Reliability Geographic Terrain Civil Psychology Military Systems One by One Climate Manipulation Civil Power, Transport, Communications, Finance TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities Military Lethality Geographic Atmosphere Civil Infrastructure This is very important. The threat changes depending on the level of analysis, and the threat is distinct, more on this shortly, in relation to the UN Mission, fixed facilities, mobile units, and individuals with both fixed homes and mobile platforms.
Creating an Analysis CellCentral discovery, distributed exploitation • Six people can leverage global open sources for an entire Ministry or Service or Command • This reduces duplication while increasing decision support to all bosses • Saves money and creates value that can be shared with host country and others Senior All-Source Collection Manager Internet Specialist Commercial Online Expert Primary Research External Contracts All-Source Analyst/ Presentation Manager
Seven Tribes (Eight) Religions, Clans, Labor Unions, Citizen Observers National NGOs Military Media Academic Law Enforcement Business
OLD NGO’s Don’t “Do” Policy Over Intelligence Unilateral Mostly Secret Technical Emphasis Collection Emphasis One-language filter Mistakes hidden Short-term thinking NEW Brahimi Report ++ Intelligence Over Policy Multilateral Mostly Public Human Emphasis Analysis Emphasis Multi-lingual filters Mistakes acknowledged Long-term thinking New Decision-Support Paradigm
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. I Lessons of History Open Source Intelligence ILessons of History • Neither the academics nor the government have done well here. • We need to fund both specialists in history, and a massive digitization project for Chinese, Islamic, other key histories.
II Global Coverage Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Open Source Intelligence IIMultinational Burden Sharing • No one has the time, money, or ability to cover the world. • We must find new means of sharing the burden of collection, translation, digitization of global open sources in 33+ languages. • The Internet is vital.
III National Intelligence Harness distributed intelligence of Nation Open Source Intelligence IIILeveraging the Private Sector • We must establish open protocols for linking and leveraging the other tribes: military, law enforcement, business, academic, NGO-media, and religious. • A global intelligence federation is needed.
Open Human Imagery Signals It’s the back and forth that allows DNA to define life. Enhancing Performance IData standards and sharing matter • From north to south, east to west, if the information is not entered digitally and according to some agreed upon standard, it will not be shared and will not contribute to UN early warning or decision support. Tip of the hat to the Director of the NIA in South Africa for this important insight.
Enhancing Performance II24/7Geospatial “Plot” is Vital • There is no substitute for a 24/7 watch center that has a geospatial “plot” and can combine a knowledge of intelligence sources with a real-world depiction of locations, vehicles, targets, and individuals.
Enhancing Performance IIIFail in Isolation, Thrive in Combination • We are our own worst enemy. • Compartmentation and security are the enemy of timely intelligence. • Sources achieve their greatest effect when combined, not when isolated. “Okay, so maybe I was wrong not to tell you about my source--but you should have told me first…...”
IV - Organizational Intelligence III - External Information Out-Sourcing of EXTERNAL Information Expert Hires Processing CHUNKS “Just Enough, Environmental Monitoring Just in Time” (Intellectual Property) Organizational Technology Monitoring Memory System Business Intelligence Patents, Etc. Customer Monitoring Data Institutionalized Trade Secrets Visualization Government Monitoring Local Meta-Data Knowledge E-Commerce TECHNICAL HUMAN Knowledge Capital™ Automated Analysis Rolodexes/E-Mail Training Project/Group Management Personal Brand Vendor Reporting Churning Cell # Heterogeneous (Rotationals) Search & Retrieval Internal Reporting PERSONALITY Trip Data Reports (Insight/Intuition) Conversion INTERNAL II - Collaborative Work I - Knowledge Management The Big PictureFour processing quadrants
Processing Quadrant #1Knowledge Management • Know what you know • Do not lose data, insights, links • Integrate people, projects, vendors, times, places, objects • Optimize application of technology to internal information • INTERNAL • Internal Reporting • Vendor Reporting • Project Management • Data Conversion • Automated Analysis
INSIGHT • Employee Brand Names • Rolodexes • E-Mail Directories • Cell Telephone Networks • Trip Reports • Rotationals • Training Processing Quadrant #2Collaborative Work • Human Capital • Inherent in People • Who They Know • How They Know • When They Know • What They Do • Who They Tell • How They Feel
EXTERNAL • Local knowledge • Expert hires “just enough, just in time” • Customer monitoring • Government monitoring • Technology monitoring • Environment monitoring • Legal, ethical, open! Processing Quadrant #3External Information Acquisition • Peter Drucker says this (external) must be the focal point for the next 50 years of innovation • OLD: spend on bodies & technology • NEW: spend on external information services in all languages, from all sources, all the time
MEMORY • Intellectual Property • Organizational Memory • Meta-Data • History of Information • Electronic/Human Links • Survive Human Turnover Processing Quadrant #4Organizational Intelligence • Data standards • Data entry mandated • Storage & retrieval • Historical access without legacy system training • Employee shoeboxes integrated/not lost
Processing Desktop:Analytic Toolkit Eighteen Computer-Assisted Capabilities Finished Intelligence and Reporting Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Desktop Publishing and Word Processing Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings A Structured Argument Analysis Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Collaborative Work Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Graphic and Map-Based Visualization of Data Modeling and Simulations B C Clustering and Linking of Related Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Detection of Changing Trends Detection of Alert Situations Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Automated Foreign Language Translation Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information
Analyze Content Extractor Processing DesktopNo Easy Solutions, Not Integrated Plan Excaliber **Powerize Collect Copernic Extend **C-4-U Scout SYSTRAN+? Topic **CI Spider Other CATALYST Elements? GMS, Athens **E-Sense Google I2 Analyst Notebook Aerotext **Corporate Intelligence Service **Knowledge.Works Information Portal, Comprendium OSALAT Silobreaker **WisdomBuilder Identifier, SIFT, OnTopic, Labrador Analyst Workbench CrimeLink **Plumtree Corporate Portal Intelligent Miner For Text **Strategy! **TextAnalyst Groove? **Wincite **Market Signal Analyzer Share EDGE? ClearForest Suite DARPA STRONG ANGEL? Report MindMap? ** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report
USSOCOM OSINT TOOLS • These are the specific products used now. They are not integrated. • Collection:Copernic Pro (Internet search and download engine); Teleport Pro (Internet spider); Convera Spider (Spider -- downloads all or selected parts of a website); Inxight StarTree / Crawler (Internet web site relationship mapper) • Process: Copernic Summarizer (Summarizes individual files); SummIT! (Specialty summarizer embedded within Retrievalware and Semio); Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for determination of relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval); Apptek Machine Translation Database (Ibase / Ibridge) ((database for analyst notebook)); Inxight Categorizer (Smart categorizer) • Analyze: Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for predetermination or relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval) • Visualize: Webtas (Allows you to put data into a timeline with corresponding map information); Analyst Notebook (De-facto standard product for link product development but manual in nature— Talend Extract, Transform, Load(ETL) is better tool); Spire (Visualization application with "terrain" map view of data; MapInfo (Mapping package); ARCView / ArcIMS (Mapping package); Propeller (data linages (primarily communications focused); Intranet Brain (Web site mapping); EnFish Onespace (Indexing engine for analyst pc's
Rule 7“Two levels down” is the new standard • Nation-states are old targeting standard • New standard is at the province, company, and individual level • This is a double order of magnitude increase in the difficulty of being adequate State Targets -- Lots of Assets Organizational Targets -- Very Few Assets Individual Targets -- Virtually No Assets
Consumer Collector Analyst Source Rule 13Cross-fertilization matters more • Old approach: consumer to analyst to collector to source--the linear paradigm • New approach is the diamond paradigm where collectors and analysts help consumers talk directly to sources