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SIMULATION SHORT COURSE George Mason University

Dr. Mike Bailey Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research. SIMULATION SHORT COURSE George Mason University. FUNDAMENTALS. Dates:  February 8, 10, 15, and 17

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SIMULATION SHORT COURSE George Mason University

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  1. Dr. Mike Bailey Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SIMULATION SHORT COURSEGeorge Mason University

  2. FUNDAMENTALS • Dates:  February 8, 10, 15, and 17 • Recommended text:  Kelton, Sadowski, and Sturrock.  2007.  Simulation with Arena.  McGraw Hill, Boston.  ISBN978-0-07-352341-5. • Recommended software: Arena for Students (download free from http://www.arenasimulation.com/) • Topical course • 4 sessions • 4 x 35-minute sessions (at least one lab using tools)

  3. SESSIONS • Basics and Mechanics • Simulation Software • Statistical Treatment of Simulation Data • Topics in Simulation • Lectures will remain available at https://orsagouge.pbworks.com/

  4. INTRODUCTION • Imitates the behavior of a closed system in some way(s) that are relevant to some decision(s) we wish to support Computer Simulation

  5. EXPERIMENTATION • Change the input parameters and observe a change in the output • Like the real system would react • Different in ways we understand • Unimportant • Validation: unimportant to our decisipon(s) Computer Simulation INPUT PARAMETERS OUTPUT SAMPLE

  6. THE PROCESS OF MODELING • System-itizing and abstracting (modeling) teaches us about the system • Identifying the input instructive • Searching for values for the input Computer Simulation INPUT PARAMETERS OUTPUT SAMPLE

  7. EXAMPLE: Batteries • You supply a platoon with batteries for their PRC-99 tactical camera. The platoon is off on a displacement that will last four(4) weeks before battery resupply is possible. Data is available for battery discharge • When the camera is operating • When a picture is taken • When the flash is operated

  8. EXAMPLE • Simulate the 4-week period • Camera on during patrols • Patrols every other day • Last 4 hours • Half (or so) are nighttime/low light • Camera operates during patrols • Average 10 pictures/patrol • Data • 1/100th discharge per hour operating • 1/10th discharge per pic • 1/5th discharge per pic with flash

  9. THE ANSWER? • xls tells us 21.56 batteries • How do we like this answer? • Uncertainty modeling… • Number of patrols per week • Number of pictures per patrol

  10. ONE OUTCOME

  11. IS THIS BETTER? • Probabilistic character of the output • Average is 24.8-ish • What use is the extra information?

  12. IN THIS COURSE • How to make those mechanics work • How to build models of interesting systems • How to experiment with the model • How to support decisions

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