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National Climate Monitoring Products

National Climate Monitoring Products. Andrew Watkins and John Kennedy (updated 28/4/2014). Example: a current national climate monitoring product (not a WMO NCMP). Typical Users and Potential Users of National Monitoring Information from WMO nations. WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update

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National Climate Monitoring Products

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  1. National Climate Monitoring Products Andrew Watkins and John Kennedy (updated 28/4/2014)

  2. Example: a current national climate monitoring product(not a WMO NCMP)

  3. Typical Users and Potential Users of National Monitoring Information from WMO nations WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update • A CCl activity • Combines monitoring and prediction on seasonal scale • Could be supplemented with national information from WMO countries NOAA/NCDC (and similar agencies) monthly global climate reports • Regular, monthly assessment of climate conditions for the globe • Uses national information from WMO countries WMO Annual Statement • Many contributing authors • National information from WMO countries Bulletin of American Met. Society (BAMS) • Annual State of the Climate report. • Regional chapter • Many contributing authors • National information from WMO countries

  4. Task Team on National Climate Monitoring Products • Goals: • Create a short list of National Climate Monitoring Products • That can be produced consistently by most countries • Produce precise guidance for each • Produce standard software • Devise workshops and training material • Produce guidance for reporting and interpretation

  5. National Climate Monitoring Products • Monthly area-average mean temperature time series (max+min)/2. • Monthly area-average of total precipitation anomalies expressed as percentages. • Monthly area-average of standardised precipitation index (SPI) calculated for each station. • Monthly area-averaged Percent of Time Tmax > 90th Percentile of Daily Maximum Temperature • Monthly area-averaged Percent of Time Tmin < 10th Percentile of Daily Minimum Temperature • Significant climate and weather event relevant to the area or region.

  6. Implementation • Based on Expert Team for Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) code • Written in ‘R’ • Freely available, open source.

  7. From station indices to area-averages • Ordinary Kriging • A standard method from geostatistics • Easy to implement • Use station data to estimate value at any point • (relatively) easy to understand/teach • BEST - Best Linear Unbiased Estimator

  8. Example: Australian Precipitation NCMP - ~150 freely available stations OFFICIAL

  9. Monthly US temperatures (NCMP1)

  10. Monthly US precip (NCMP2)

  11. Warm days and cold nights (NCMP 4 and 5)

  12. NCMP updates would take the form of • A message

  13. Dissemination Routes RCC GCC Journalists Citizens Stakeholders Other NHMS WMO BAMS SotC NCMP Focal point BUFR NHMS website XML?

  14. NCMP • For each NCMP for each month in the record • Monthly values • Number of stations used to calculate NCMP • Quality flag • For whole series • Method/software version • Focal point • Station list • Link to additional metadata

  15. NCMP monthly updates/messages • Date: 2013/01 • Country: UK • NCMP 1 (Mean Temperature anomaly): -1.7°C • Station Count: 23 • Normal Period: 1971-2000 • Quality Assurance Indicator: 3 = QC, homogenised network • NCMP 2 (Precip): 87% • Station Count: 111 • Normal… • NCMP 6 (Extreme events): 2 events • Event 1 type: Station record minimum temperature • Event 1 value: -8°C • Event 1 station id: 31276 • Method/software: Version 7.2.1.0.0 of R_NCMP • Focal point: john.kennedy@metoffice.gov.uk

  16. Some (not all!)Issues to be resolved • How open/adaptable is the final tool? • How to incorporate training?

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