Quadrupling is twice as good as doubling Ernst von Weizsäcker Bren School

1. Quadrupling is twice as good as doubling Ernst von Weizsäcker Bren School Bren School Corporate Partners Summit May 11th 2007

2. Environmental Policy in the 19th Century Nature Conservation

3. Environmental Policy After „Silent Spring“ Pollution Control Nature Conservation

4. Stabilizingclimate requires halving GHG emissions, but a world of 7 billion people rather wants a doubling!

5. l Some say wind energy is the answer

6. But even in Germany it’s still marginal

7. Many believe biofuels will be the answer. • But biofuels can be • an environmental nightmare • economically problematic, • socially disruptive

8. Environmental nightmare (palmoil plantation, West Africa)

9. Economically problematic: Prices for reducing one ton of CO2 using biofuels (in Euros; €500 = $630) (The present market price for a one ton permit of CO2 emissions is below €5 and may go up to $15 within a year) high estimates low

10. Socially disruptive: Mexican corn prices for tortillas doubled due to fuel demand

11. Renewable sources of energy are helpful and desirable. But they do not solve the problem of global warming, for a very long time to come! What then?

12. So let us look for a more radical solution: Decoupling wealth from energy consumption!

13. Decoupling wealth from resource consumption means increasing resource productivity

14. Environmental policy after climate and resource problems became prominent Resource Productivity Pollution Control Nature Conservation

15. Quadrupling resource productivity would allow us doubling wealth while halving resource use!

16. Imagine a bucket of water weighing twenty pounds.How many kilowatt-hourswould you need to lift that bucket from sea level up to the top of Mount McKinley?

17. 1 kwh The answer is: One fifth of a kilowatt-hour! (- assuming that one watt-second equals one Newton-meter)

18. We can increase efficiency for energy, water and materials at least fourfold

19. Amory Lovins‘ Hypercar, re-dubbed „Revolution“, is four or seven times more fuel efficient than today‘s cars Hypercar 120-150 mpg Today‘s cars 20-30 mpg Energy efficiency

20. House in the Alps Rocky Mountain Institute Heating efficiency

21. Energy efficiency in office buildings The Donald Bren School, a Platinum LEED building Energy & water efficiency

22. From incandescent light bulbs to solid state lighting Energy efficiency

23. Matsuhita refrigerators: steadily increasing efficiency

24. Typically, however, a factor of four is unattainable if we look at efficiency of simple processes.Bigger gains come in when comparing complex systems. Here, we talk about productivity

25. Old: Increasing labour productivity New: Increasing resource productivity Changing technological paradigms

26. „Productivity“ is much richer than „efficiency“ Productivity is about networks and cascades Efficiency is inside a box (e.g. mpg)

27. Overcoming crazy logistics in strawberry yoghurt production

28. Integrated energy, water and transport optimization Source Ulf Ranhagen, Stockholm, 2006

29. Source Ulf Ranhagen, Stockholm, 2006

30. Source Ulf Ranhagen, Stockholm, 2006

31. Source Ulf Ranhagen, Stockholm, 2006

32. Source Ulf Ranhagen, Stockholm, 2006

33. What has been the main driving force for the increase more than twentyfold of labor productivity? Economists would say it was labor cost. What has been the main driving force for the inrease more than twentyfold of wages? Economists would say labor productivity

34. Labor poductivity rose in parallel with labor costs

35. Labor poductivity went in parallel with labor costs This suggests a strategy of actively elevating energy prices in parallel with energy productivity increases

36. Long term price elasticity of gasoline

37. In Japan, the new catchword is the “Cyclical Economy”

38. The sixth wave of technological innovation (after Charlie Hargroves, Brisbane, Australia)